Abstract
In the first half of winter 2020/21, China has experienced an extremely cold period across both northern and southern regions, with record-breaking low temperatures set in many stations of China. Meanwhile, a moderate La Niña event which exceeded both oceanic and atmospheric thresholds began in August 2020 and in a few months developed into its mature phase, just prior to the 2020/21 winter. In this report, the mid−high-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, which were forced by the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation, a strengthened Siberian High, an intensified Ural High and a deepened East Asian Trough, are considered to be the direct reason for the frequent cold surges in winter 2020/21. At the same time, the synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and the cold tropical Pacific (La Niña) provided an indispensable background, at a hemispheric scale, to intensify the atmospheric circulation anomalies in middle-to-high latitudes. In the end, a most recent La Niña prediction is provided and the on-coming evolution of climate is discussed for the remaining part of the 2020/21 winter for the purpose of future decision-making and early warning.
摘要
在2020/21年冬季的前半段 (2020年12月1日-2021年1月10日), 影响我国的冷空气活动持续偏强 (一次全国型强冷空气, 两次全国型寒潮), 导致我国中东部大部地区气温异常偏低, 部分站点最低气温甚至突破历史极值. 同时, 一次中等强度的拉尼娜事件从2020年8月开始, 并于2020/21年冬季发展到成熟阶段. 北半球中高纬大尺度大气环流的持续性异常是今冬前期强寒潮频繁发生的最直接原因: 北极涛动持续负相位、 西伯利亚高压持续偏强、 乌拉尔山高压脊偏强和东亚大槽偏深导致的环流经向度持续偏大. 本报告强调偏暖的北极和偏冷的热带太平洋 (拉尼娜) 两者的协同作用为上述大气环流异常提供了必不可少的背景条件 (半球尺度的南北温度梯度减弱). 最后, 报告还提供了最新的拉尼娜预测及今冬后期的气候趋势预判, 供将来决策和预警之用.
Article PDF
References
Ballinger, T. J., and Coauthors, 2020: Surface air temperature. Arctic Report Card: Update for 2020, https://doi.org/10.25923/gcw8-2z06.
Behringer, D., and Y. Xue, 2004: Evaluation of the global ocean data assimilation system at NCEP: The Pacific Ocean. Eighth Symposium on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface, AMS 84th Annual Meeting, Washington State Convention and Trade Center, Seattle, Washington, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
Chen, W., X. Q. Lan, L. Wang, and Y. Ma, 2013: The combined effects of the ENSO and the Arctic Oscillation on the winter climate anomalies in East Asia. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58(12), 1355–1362, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5654-5.
Cohen, J. L., and Coauthors, 2020: Divergent consensuses on Arctic amplification influence on midlatitude severe winter weather. Nature Climate Change, 10, 20–29, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0662-y.
Cohen, J. L., and Coauthors, 2014: Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather. Nature Geoscience, 7(9), 627–637, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2234.
Ding, Y. H., Z. Y. Wang, Y. F. Song, and J. Zhang, 2008: Causes of the unprecedented freezing disaster in January 2008 and its possible association with the global warming. Acta Meteorological Sinica, 66, 808–825, https://doi.org/10.3321/j.issn:0577-6619.2008.05.014.
Gao, H., 2009: China’s snow disaster in 2008, who is the principal player? International Journal of Climatology, 29, 2191–2196, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1859.
Hu, Z. Z., A. Kumar, Y. Xue, and B. Jha, 2014: Why were some La Niñas followed by another La Niña? Climate Dyn, 42, 1029–1042, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1917-3.
Huang, B. Y., and Coauthors, 2017a: Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature, version 5 (ERSSTv5): Upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J. Climate, 30, 8179–8205, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1.
Huang, J. B., and Coauthors, 2017b: Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend. Nature Climate Change, 7, 875–879, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-017-0009-5.
Huang, R. H., and W. Chen, 2002: Recent progresses in the research on the interaction between Asian monsoon and ENSO cycle. Climatic and Environmental Research, 7(2), 146–159, https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.1006-9585.2002.02.003. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Li, J. P., F. Zheng, C. Sun, J. Feng, and J. Wang, 2019: Pathways of influence of the northern hemisphere mid-high latitudes on East Asian climate: A review. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 36, 902–921, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-019-8236-5.
Liu, Y. Q., and Y. H. Ding, 1992: Influence of ENSO events on weather and climate of China. Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology, 3(4), 473–481. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Manabe, S., and R. T. Wetherald, 1975: The effects of doubling the CO2 concentration on the climate of a general circulation model. J. Atmos. Sci., 32(1), 3–15, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1975)032<0003:TEODTC>2.0.CO;2.
Maykut, G. A., 1982: Large-scale heat exchange and ice production in the central Arctic. J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 87, 7971–7984, https://doi.org/10.1029/JC087iC10p07971.
Taylor, P. C., B. M. Hegyi, R. C. Boeke, and L. N. Boisvert, 2018: On the increasing importance of air-sea exchanges in a thawing Arctic: A review. Atmosphere, 9(2), 41, https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9020041.
Wang, Z. Y., Y. H. Ding, B. T. Zhou, and L. J. Chen, 2020: Comparison of two severe low-temperature snowstorm and ice freezing events in China: Role of Eurasian mid-high latitude circulation patterns. International Journal of Climatology, 40(7), 3436–3450, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6406.
Wu, B. Y., and J. Wang, 2002: Winter Arctic Oscillation, Siberian high and East Asian winter monsoon. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 1897, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL015373.
Wu, B. Y., J. Z. Su, and R. H. Zhang, 2011a: Effects of autumn-winter arctic sea ice on winter Siberian high. Chinese Science Bulletin, 56, 3220–3228, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-011-4696-4.
Wu, B. Y., K. Yang, and J. A. Francis, 2016: Summer Arctic dipole wind pattern affects the winter Siberian High. International Journal of Climatology, 36, 4187–4201, https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4623.
Wu, Z. W., J. P. Li, Z. H. Jiang, and J. H. He, 2011b: Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon: Once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winter. Climate Dyn., 37, 1661–1669, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0938-4.
Yang, S., K. M. Lau, and K. M. Kim, 2002: Variations of the East Asian jet stream and Asian-Pacific-American winter climate anomalies. J. Climate, 15(3), 306–325, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015<0306:VOTEAJ>2.0.CO;2.
Yuan, Y., and H. M. Yan, 2013: Different types of La Niña events and different responses of the tropical atmosphere. Chinese Science Bulletin, 58, 406–415, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11434-012-5423-5.
Yuan, Y., C. Y. Li, and S. Yang, 2014: Decadal anomalies of winter precipitation over southern China in association with El Nino and La Niña. J. Meteor. Res., 28(1), 91–110, https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-0106-6.
Zhang, Q. Y., S. L. Xuan, and J. B. Peng, 2008: Relationship between Asian circulation in the middle-high latitude and snowfall over South China during La Niña events. Climatic and Environmental Research, 13(4), 385–394, https://doi.org/10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2008.04.04. (in Chinese with English abstract)
Zheng, F., and J. Zhu, 2010: Coupled assimilation for an intermediated coupled ENSO prediction model. Ocean Dynamics, 60(5), 1061–1073, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-010-0307-1.
Zheng, F., and J. Zhu, 2016: Improved ensemble-mean forecasting of ENSO events by a zero-mean stochastic error model of an intermediate coupled model. Climate Dyn., 47(12), 3901–3915, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3048-0.
Zheng, F., and J. Y. Yu, 2017: Contrasting the skills and biases of deterministic predictions for the two types of El Niño. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 34(12), 1395–1403, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-017-6324-y.
Zheng, F., J. Zhu, R. H. Zhang, and G. Q. Zhou, 2006: Ensemble hindcasts of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific using an intermediate coupled model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 331(19), L19604, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026994.
Zheng, F., J. Zhu, and R. H. Zhang, 2007: Impact of altimetry data on ENSO ensemble initializations and predictions. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34(13), L13611, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030451.
Zheng, F., J. Zhu, H. Wang, and R. H. Zhang, 2009: Ensemble hindcasts of ENSO events over the past 120 years using a large number of ensembles. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 26(2), 359–372, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-009-0359-7.
Zheng, F., L. S. Feng, and J. Zhu, 2015: An incursion of off-equatorial subsurface cold water and its role in triggering the “double dip” La Niña event of 2011. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 32(6), 731–742, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-014-4080-9.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported by the national key R&D Program of China (Grant No 2018YFC1505603), the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences, CAS (Grant No. ZDBS-LY-DQC010), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41876012; 41861144015).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Additional information
This paper is a contribution to the special issue on Extreme Cold Events from East Asia to North America in Winter 2020/21.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zheng, F., Yuan, Y., Ding, Y. et al. The 2020/21 Extremely Cold Winter in China Influenced by the Synergistic Effect of La Niña and Warm Arctic. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 39, 546–552 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1033-y
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-021-1033-y