Abstract
The NFL collects detailed tracking data capturing the location of all players and the ball during each play. Although the raw form of this data is not publicly available, the NFL releases a set of aggregated statistics via their Next Gen Stats (NGS) platform. They also provide charts showing the locations of pass attempts and outcomes for individual quarterbacks. Our work aims to partially close the gap between what data is available privately (to NFL teams) and publicly, and our contribution is two-fold. First, we introduce an image processing tool designed specifically for extracting the raw data from the NGS pass charts. We extract the pass outcome, coordinates, and other metadata. Second, we analyze the resulting dataset, examining the spatial tendencies and performances of individual quarterbacks and defenses. We use a generalized additive model for completion percentages by field location. We introduce a naive Bayes approach for estimating the 2-D completion percentage surfaces of individual teams and quarterbacks, and we provide a one-number summary, completion percentage above expectation (CPAE), for evaluating quarterbacks and team defenses. We find that our pass location data closely matches the NFL’s tracking data, and that our CPAE metric closely matches the NFL’s proprietary CPAE metric.
A Data scraped from next gen stats
| Variable | Description |
|---|---|
| completions | number of completions thrown |
| touchdowns | number of touchdowns thrown |
| attempts | number of passes thrown |
| interceptions | number of interceptions thrown |
| extraLargeImg | URL of extra-large-sized image (1200 × 1200) |
| week | week of game |
| gameId | 10-digit game identification number |
| season | NFL season |
| firstName | first name of player |
| lastName | last name of player |
| team | team name of player |
| position | position of player |
| seasonType | regular (“reg”) or postseason (“post”) |
B Example subset of data
| game_id | team | week | name | pass_type | x_coord | y_coord | type | home_team | away_team | season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018020400 | PHI | super-bowl | Nick Foles | COMPLETE | −3.6 | 16.9 | post | NE | PHI | 2017 |
| 2018020400 | PHI | super-bowl | Nick Foles | COMPLETE | 16.2 | −3.0 | post | NE | PHI | 2017 |
| 2018020400 | PHI | super-bowl | Nick Foles | COMPLETE | 11.5 | −6.4 | post | NE | PHI | 2017 |
| 2018020400 | PHI | super-bowl | Nick Foles | TOUCHDOWN | −8.5 | 5.7 | post | NE | PHI | 2017 |
| 2018020400 | PHI | super-bowl | Nick Foles | TOUCHDOWN | −18.8 | 30.1 | post | NE | PHI | 2017 |
| 2018020400 | PHI | super-bowl | Nick Foles | TOUCHDOWN | −19.3 | 41.2 | post | NE | PHI | 2017 |
| 2018020400 | PHI | super-bowl | Nick Foles | INTERCEPTION | 21.8 | 37.9 | post | NE | PHI | 2017 |
| 2018020400 | PHI | super-bowl | Nick Foles | INCOMPLETE | 5.1 | 7.9 | post | NE | PHI | 2017 |
| 2018020400 | PHI | super-bowl | Nick Foles | INCOMPLETE | −12.9 | 39.6 | post | NE | PHI | 2017 |
| 2018020400 | PHI | super-bowl | Nick Foles | INCOMPLETE | 26.1 | 8.0 | post | NE | PHI | 2017 |
C QB CPAE
CPAE for 2017 and 2018 seasons for QBs with at least 100 passes in a season.
| QB | CPAE17 | npasses_2017 | CPAE18 | npasses_2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 4.21 | 439 | 6.14 | 473 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 0.47 | 112 | 3.42 | 157 |
| Nick Foles | −3.64 | 152 | 3.42 | 229 |
| Russell Wilson | 5.77 | 309 | 3.39 | 295 |
| Matthew Ryan | 2.77 | 524 | 3.22 | 552 |
| Carson Wentz | 0.07 | 333 | 3.08 | 313 |
| Derek Carr | 0.27 | 300 | 2.96 | 429 |
| Kirk Cousins | −0.15 | 394 | 2.53 | 467 |
| Derrick Watson | 2.53 | 110 | 2.43 | 492 |
| Cameron Newton | −1.18 | 352 | 2.14 | 392 |
| Marcus Mariota | 0.95 | 495 | 1.75 | 275 |
| Jared Goff | −0.41 | 428 | 1.7 | 553 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2.46 | 394 | 1.29 | 518 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 1.27 | 445 | ||
| Philip Rivers | 0.34 | 416 | 1.15 | 560 |
| Rayne Prescott | −0.14 | 408 | 1.11 | 434 |
| Jameis Winston | 2.55 | 268 | 0.44 | 295 |
| Andrew Luck | 0.33 | 559 | ||
| Mitchell Trubisky | −1.36 | 262 | 0.27 | 323 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 0.08 | 191 | ||
| Brock Osweiler | 0.06 | 163 | ||
| John Stafford | 3.14 | 384 | −0.04 | 480 |
| Aaron Rodgers | −0.15 | 573 | ||
| Baker Mayfield | −0.38 | 269 | ||
| Alexander Smith | 4.31 | 418 | −0.88 | 254 |
| Tom Brady | 3.23 | 524 | −0.89 | 519 |
| Elisha Manning | −2.22 | 369 | −1 | 536 |
| Sam Darnold | −1.05 | 289 | ||
| Casey Keenum | 0.33 | 382 | −1.38 | 509 |
| Joseph Flacco | −0.23 | 438 | −1.67 | 367 |
| Nicholas Mullens | −1.87 | 118 | ||
| Andrew Dalton | −1.25 | 307 | −1.89 | 195 |
| Lamar Jackson | −2.07 | 112 | ||
| Joshua Allen | −3.44 | 237 | ||
| Casey Beathard | −4.94 | 185 | −4.37 | 168 |
| Joshua Rosen | −4.54 | 260 | ||
| Jeffrey Driskel | −4.83 | 110 | ||
| Robby Bortles | −1.9 | 399 | −5.04 | 336 |
D Defense CPAE
Defensive CPAE for 2017 and 2018 seasons.
| Team | CPAE17 | npasses_2017 | CPAE18 | npasses_2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 3.54 | 380 | 6.89 | 452 |
| ATL | 2.36 | 524 | 4.31 | 552 |
| NO | −0.68 | 439 | 4.07 | 495 |
| DAL | 2.81 | 408 | 3.82 | 434 |
| IND | 1.91 | 388 | 2.94 | 559 |
| CIN | −2.37 | 307 | 2.52 | 305 |
| DET | 5.45 | 384 | 2.46 | 480 |
| MIN | −4.93 | 382 | 2.39 | 467 |
| MIA | 1.86 | 355 | 2.38 | 354 |
| WAS | −4.5 | 394 | 2.17 | 403 |
| SEA | −3.89 | 309 | 1.33 | 295 |
| CAR | 1.59 | 352 | 1.19 | 443 |
| PHI | −0.59 | 485 | 0.99 | 542 |
| HOU | 7 | 410 | 0.27 | 492 |
| ARI | −1.93 | 462 | 0.22 | 354 |
| SF | 0.95 | 500 | −0.33 | 344 |
| JAX | −3.99 | 399 | −0.7 | 401 |
| NE | 1.56 | 524 | −1 | 519 |
| GB | 7.1 | 363 | −1.06 | 573 |
| NYG | 1.19 | 402 | −1.08 | 536 |
| LAC | 0.81 | 416 | −1.11 | 560 |
| TEN | −0.85 | 526 | −1.13 | 323 |
| DEN | −1.27 | 386 | −1.13 | 509 |
| CLE | 3.97 | 427 | −1.27 | 339 |
| BUF | 2.41 | 212 | −1.48 | 327 |
| PIT | −1.75 | 421 | −1.65 | 526 |
| NYJ | −3.45 | 370 | −1.93 | 352 |
| KC | −1.64 | 452 | −1.98 | 445 |
| OAK | 1.71 | 324 | −2.12 | 429 |
| LA | −2.81 | 462 | −2.35 | 553 |
| CHI | 3.32 | 368 | −2.43 | 360 |
| BAL | −3.36 | 438 | −5.24 | 479 |
Lower number represents better defense.
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