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Signal Extraction for Nonstationary Time Series with Diverse Sampling Rules

  • Thomas Trimbur EMAIL logo and Tucker McElroy

Abstract

This paper presents a flexible framework for signal extraction of time series measured as stock or flow at diverse sampling frequencies. Our approach allows for a coherent treatment of series across diverse sampling rules, a deeper understanding of the main properties of signal estimators and the role of measurement, and a straightforward method for signal estimation and interpolation for discrete observations. We set out the essential theoretical foundations, including a proof of the continuous-time Wiener-Kolmogorov formula generalized to nonstationary signal or noise. Based on these results, we derive a new class of low-pass filters that provide the basis for trend estimation of stock and flow time series. Further, we introduce a simple and accurate method for low-frequency signal estimation and interpolation in discrete samples, and examine its properties for simulated series. Illustrations are given on economic data.

Appendix: Proofs

Proof of Theorem 1

Throughout, we shall assume that d>0, since the d=0 case is essentially handled in Kailath et al., (2000). In order to prove the theorem, it suffices to show that the error process e(t)=sˆ(t)s(t) is orthogonal to the underlying process {y(h)}. By (19), it suffices to show that {e(t)} is orthogonal to {w(t)} and the initial values y(0). So we begin by analyzing the error process produced by the proposed weighting kernel ψ=F1[g]. We first note the following interesting property of ψ. The moments of ψ

zkψ(z)dz=ikdkdλkfu(λ)fw(λ)|λ=0

for k<d exist by the smoothness assumptions on g, and are easily shown to equal zero if 0<k<2d (i. e., for dk<2d, the moments are zero so long as they exist – their existence is not guaranteed by the assumptions of the theorem). Moreover, the integral of ψ is equal to 1 if d>0. These properties ensure (when d>0) that the filter Ψ(L) passes polynomials of degree less than d. This is because Ψ(L)tj=tj for j<d. We first note that representation (19) also extends to the signal: s(t)=j=0d1tjjs(j)(0)+[Idu](t). Then the error process is

e(t)=(ψy)(t)s(t)=(ψs)(t)s(t)+(ψn)(t).

Since Ψ(L) passes polynomials, (ψs)(t)s(t)=(ψ(x)Δ0(x))[Idu](tx)dx, where Δ0 is the Dirac delta function. Note that any filter that does not pass polynomials cannot be MSE optimal, since the variance of the error process will grow unboundedly with time. So we have

ϵ(t)=(ψ(x)Δ0(x))Idu(tx)dx+ψ(x)n(tx)dx,

which is orthogonal to y(0) by Assumption A. Due to the representation (19), it is sufficient to show that the error process is uncorrelated with [Idw](t). For any real h

[34]Eϵ(t)Idw(t+h)=ψ(x)Δ0(x)EIdu(tx)Idu(t+h)dx+ψ(x)En(tx)n(th)j=0d1(t+h)jjn(j)(0)dx

which uses the fact that [Idw](t)=[Idu](t)+n(t)j=0d1tjjn(j)(0). Now we have

[35]E[Idu](tx)[Idu](t+h)=0tx0t+h(txr)d1(t+hz)d1(d1)2Rurzdzdr.

If fu is integrable, we can write Ru(h)=12πfu(λ)eiλhdλ. If RuΔ0 instead, then fu1; we can still use the above Fourier representation of Ru in (35), because the various integrals will take care of the non-integrability of fu automatically. Since 0xeiλydy=(1eiλx)/(iλ), we obtain that (35) is equal to

12πfu(λ)λ2deiλ(th)j=0d1(iλ)jj(th)jeiλ(tx)j=0d1(iλ)jj(tx)jdλ.

When integrated against ψ(x)Δ0(x), we use the moments property of ψ to obtain

12πfu(λ)λ2deiλ(th)j=0d1(iλ)jj(th)jeiλtΨeiλeiλtdλ=12fu(λ)fn(λ)fw(λ)eiλhj=0d1(iλ)jj(th)jeiλtdλ.

This uses Ψ(eiλ)1=λ2dfn(λ)/fw(λ), which is not integrable if fn1; yet fufn/fw will be integrable under the conditions of the theorem. As for the noise term in (34), we first note that n(j)(t) exists for each j<d since w(t) exists by assumption; this existence is interpreted in the sense of Generalized Random Processes (Hannan 1970). In particular

ψ(x)E[n(tx)n(th)]dx=ψ(x)Rn(xh)dx=12πfn(λ)eiλhΨ(eiλ)dλ.

This Fourier representation is valid even when fn1, since Ψ(eiλ) is integrable by assumption. Similarly,

En(tx)n(j)(0)=jzjE[n(tx)n(z)]|z=0=jzjRn(txz)|z=0=jxjRn(tx)

where the derivatives are interpreted in the sense of distributions – i. e., when this quantity is integrated against a suitably smooth test function, the derivatives are passed over via integration by parts:

ψ(x)E[n(tx)n(j)(0)]dx=(1)jψ(j)(x)Rn(tx)dx.

Since λjΨ(eiλ) for j<d is integrable by assumption, we have ψ(j)(x)=12π(iλ)jΨ(eiλ)eiλxdλ, and the second term in (34) becomes

12πfn(λ)Ψ(eiλ)eiλhj=0d1(iλ)j(th)jjeiλtdλ.

This cancels with the first term of (34), which shows that Ψ(L) is MSE optimal. Using similar techniques, the error spectral density is obtained as well. □

Derivation of the Weighting Kernel in Illustration 2: We compute the Fourier Transform via the Cauchy Integral Formula (Ahlfors 1979), letting q=1 for simplicity:

12π11+λ4eiλxdλ

We can replace x by |x| because the integrand is even. The standard approach is to compute the integral of the complex function

f(z)=eiz|x|1+z4

along the real axis by computing the sum of the residues in the upper half plane, and multiplying by 2πi (since f is bounded and integrable in the upper half plane). It has two simple poles there: eiπ/iπ44 and ei3π/i3π44. The residues work out to be

(zeiπ/iπ44)f(z)|eiπ/iπ44=e|x|(1i)/|x|(1i)224i(1+i)/4i(1+i)22(zei3π/i3π44)f(z)|ei3π/i3π44=e|x|(1+i)/|x|(1+i)224i(1i)/4i(1i)22

respectively. Summing these and multiplying by i gives the desired result, after some simplification. To extend beyond the q=1 case, simply let xq1/144x and multiply by q1/144 by change of variable. □

Derivation of the Low-Pass Weighting Kernel. We consider extending the frf to the complex plane, written as f(z)=eiz|x|(1+z2m)1. The same strategy is used as in the m=2 case above, observing that the m poles of 1+z2m are of the form eijπ/ijπmm with j an odd integer between 1 and 4m1 Half of these poles occur in the upper half plane, and half in the lower half complex plane. Moreover,

1+z2m=k=1m(z22cos[π(2k1)/2m]z+1)=k=1m(zei(2k1)π/2m)(zei(4m2k+1)π/2m),

so that the residue of f at a pole in the upper plane, say ei(2k1)π/i(2k1)π2m2m,is

eiz|x|kz22cos[π(21)/π(21)2m2m]z+1zei(4m2k+1)π/i(4m2k+1)π2m2m|z=ei(4m2k+1)π/i(4m2k+1)π2m2m.

Simplifying, and summing over the relevant residues yields

ψ(x)=k=1mexp{(sin[(2k1)π/2m]+icos[(2k1)π/2m])|x|}k(ei(2k1)π/m2cos[π(21)/2m]ei(2k1)π/2m+1)2cos[π(2k1)/m].
Proof of Proposition 1

First we show that the difference between the two filters has no bias. Letting a(x)=xp for integer p and aτ=a(δτ),

Ψ(L)a(δτ+δc)=j=0ppj(δτ)pj(δcx)jψ(x)dxΨδ(B)aτ=j=0ppj(δτ)pjk=ψk(δk)j

follows from binomial expansion. Matching coefficients, we see that a necessary and sufficient condition for similar polynomial treatment is

[36](xδc)jψ(x)dx=δjk=ψkkj

for j=0,1,2,,p. In the case of handling I(d) processes, we would impose this condition with p=d. But (36) can be compactly expressed in frequency domain as (26) using Fourier Transforms. Using the representation in eq. [5] of MT, any discrete filter that satisfies this condition ensures that the discretization error Ψ(L)y(δτ+δc)Ψδ(B)yτ only involves stochastic portions. Next, using induction and results of Hannan (1970), we can represent an I(d) CT process (with square integrable differentiated process w) as

y(t)=j=0d1tjjy(j)(0)+(iλ)deiλtj=0d1(iλt)jjdZ(λ).

Typically the initialization values y(j)(0) are random variables assumed to be independent of the differentiated process w, to which the orthogonal increments process dZ pertains. Stock-sampling the above representation is fairly clear, but note that flow-sampling will result in the factor (1eiλδ)/(1eiλδ)(iλ)(iλ) multiplying the complex exponential. In either the stock or flow case we can apply the discrete-lag and continuous-lag filters and cancel out the deterministic terms, leaving the stated expressions for the discretization error. The expression (27) for the discretization MSE then follows at once. This integral (27) is not guaranteed to be finite, unless there is a suitable degree of decay in fw or the other integrands (clearly λ2d assists integrability). Also note that (26) ensures that a suitable number of zeroes occur in the integrand at frequency zero, to offset the explosive behavior of λ2d at λ=0.

Proof of Proposition 2

We first establish the decomposition of the discretization MSE. Using the notation [f]δ(λ)=δ1h=f(λ+2πh/λ+2πhδδ) for the fold of the function f (cf., MT), the stock ODF is given by the formula uδ=[gecfwm2d]δ/uδ=[gecfwm2d]δ[fwm2d]δ[fwm2d]δ, where mj(λ)=λj. Then (28) follows from [uδfwm2d]δ=[gecfwm2d]δ, which holds due to a property of folds, implying that the cross-terms are zero. Also the total PADF discretization MSE can be rewritten as 1πδ0πK(λ/λδδ)dλ, where

K(x)=h0|g(x+2πh/2πhδδ)ec(x+2πh/2πhδδ)g(x)ec(x)|2fw(x+2πh/2πhδδ)(x+2πh/2πhδδ)2d,

which is convenient for numerical computation. The integral expression for (27) is easily approximated via a Riemann sum. The ODF discretization MSE can be computed using the formula (also discussed in MT)

δ2ππ/δπ/δg2fwm2dδ|gecfwm2dδ|2/g2fwm2dδ|gecfwm2dδ|2fwm2dδfwm2dδ(λ)dλ.

This too can be rewritten as 1πδ0πH(λ/λδδ)dλ, where

H(x)=δg2fwm2dδ(x)|gecfwm2dδ(x)|2/g2fwm2dδ(x)|gecfwm2dδ(x)|2fwm2dδ(x)fwm2dδ(x).

This can also be computed via a Riemann approximation; of course, computation of these quantities require a knowledge of the true spectrum fw, and thus is a theoretical exercise. Hence the PADF discretization MSE equals

1πδ0πK(λ/λδδ)dλ=1πδ0πH(λ/λδδ)dλ+1πδ0π[KH](λ/λδδ)dλ,

which decomposes the error in terms of the ODF discretization MSE and the extra MSE due to using a sub-optimal discretization.

Now for the main assertion of the proposition, it suffices to show that the ratio of 0π/πδδ[KH](λ)dλ to 0π/πδδH(λ)dλ tends to zero as δ0. Let us write that g(λ)=O(|λ|β) for some β0, which is always possible because g is a bounded function. Also note that m2d has tails of order 2d. The integrand of the denominator equals

hlgfwm2dλ+2πh/2πhδδfwm2dλ+2π/2πδδ[g(λ+2πh/2πhδδ)g(λ+2π/2πδδ)],

divided by h(fwm2d)(λ+2πh/2πhδδ), which tends to fw(λ)λ2d as δ0. Now the terms that decay to zero slowest in the above double summation occur when either h or is zero; if both h and are nonzero (and they don’t equal each other), the corresponding summands will decay more rapidly in δ due to our tail assumptions on fw and g. Therefore we can focus on

fwm2d(λ)h0gfwm2d(λ+2πh/2πhδδ)[g(λ+2πh/2πhδδ)g(λ)]
+gfwm2d(λ)0fwm2d(λ+2π/2πδδ)[g(λ)g(λ+2π/2πδδ)].

In the first term, each summand is O(δ2β+α+2d), whereas in the second term each summand is O(δβ+α+2d); overall, the highest order term is of order δβ+α+2d. Now consider the function [KH](λ); this is the square of

h0[g(λ+2πh/2πhδδ)g(λ)]fwm2d(λ+2πh/2πhδδ),

again divided by h(fwm2d)(λ+2πh/2πhδδ). When the square is expanded, every summand in the double sum is O(δ2β+2α+4d). Now we know the order of growth of both integrands, which is all that matters by the Dominated Convergence Theorem. So long as β+α+2d0, the PADF MSE is asymptotic to the minimal MSE.

This completes the stock case. For the flow case, the ODF has frf

uδ=igecfwm2d+1δ1eiλδ1/fwm2d+2δ,

so that

12π|g(λ)ec(λ)/g(λ)ec(λ)aδ(λ)uˉδ(λ)aδ(λ)uˉδ(λ)|21eiλδ|2fw(λ)λ2d2dλ
+12π|uˉδ(λ)gˉδ(λ)|2|1eiλδ|2fw(λ)λ2d2dλ.

The first term is the ODF discretization MSE, whereas the second term is the extra MSE due to using a suboptimal discretization. As in the stock case, the total error is the integral of a function K, whereas the lower bound on the error is given by the integral of a function H. In contrast to the stock case, H is given by

H(x)=δg2fwm2dδ(x)|[gecfwm2d+1]δ(x)|2/[fwm2d+2]δ(x).

in the flow case. Also, the total error in the flow case is the integral of

K(x)=h0|g(x+2πh/2πhδδ)ec(x+2πh/2πhδδ)(x+2πh/2πhδδ)g(x)ec(x)x|2fw(x+2πh/2πhδδ)(x+2πh/2πhδδ)2d2.

As in the case of a stock-sampled series, the MSE depends explicitly on c. With these derivations, the analysis of the ratio of PADF to ODF discretization MSE follows along the same lines as for the stock case. □

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Published Online: 2016-4-22
Published in Print: 2017-1-1

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