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Asymmetric interdependence and the politics of energy in Europe: Hirschman’s ‘influence effect’ redux

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Abstract

In 1945, Albert Hirschman proposed that countries can use asymmetric trade relations as a weapon of political influence at the direct expense of the security of their trading partners. This paper argues that Hirschman’s theory of asymmetric interdependence can be applied to the contemporary case of European-Russian gas relations given that Russia uses its monopoly on gas to promote its regional political and security interests. At the same time, we argue that Hirschman’s concepts of ‘supply effect’ and ‘influence effect’ must be reevaluated in light of the deepening economic interdependence in European gas trade. By exploring three different types of dependent states, Ukraine, Bulgaria and Germany, we find that the interdependent network of trade relations in Europe, and the shared vulnerability and political influence of European gas importers, have weakened both types of economic statecraft. Yet, more indirect and diffuse forms of political influence are possible through forging ties of asymmetric interdependence.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Medford, MA, 02155, USA

    Audrey DaDalt

  2. Department of Government and Law, Lafayette College, Easton, PA, 18042, USA

    Seo-Hyun Park

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  1. Audrey DaDalt
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Appendix

Appendix

See Figs. 1 and 2 and Tables 1 and 2.

Figure 1
figure 1

Prices for Gazprom gas by country, 2013 (Source: Hinchey 2018: 88)

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Figure 2
figure 2

Nord Stream I and II (Source: Umbach 2017)

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Table 1 Russia-Europe gas trade in 2012 by export and import shares (Source: Orlov 2015: 494)
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Table 2 Summary: asymmetric interdependence and its effects (Source: BP 2016, EIA 2017, European Commission 2019, Nowak 2014, Shiryaevskaya and Parkin 2018, and Yardley and Becker 2014)
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DaDalt, A., Park, SH. Asymmetric interdependence and the politics of energy in Europe: Hirschman’s ‘influence effect’ redux. J Int Relat Dev 24, 101–127 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41268-020-00184-x

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