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Abstract
We examine whether conservative politicians are less likely to support same-sex marriage when they run for office in safe rather than in contested districts using new data based on a roll-call vote in the national German parliament. The results show that the margin of the majority for the incumbent in the previous election was a strong predictor for supporting same-sex marriage. When the majority increased by a 1 percentage point, the likelihood of voting in favour of same-sex marriage decreased by around 1.3 percentage points. We conjecture that politicians are election-motivated - even when submitting roll-call votes on a matter of conscience.
Keywords: Same-sex marriage; gay rights; safe districts; vote margins; supermajorities; roll-call votes
Published Online: 2019-12-07
Published in Print: 2019-12-01
© 2019 by Walter de Gruyter Berlin/Boston
