Abstract
This article analyses individual level support for a Basic Income Guarantee (BIG) using the European Social Survey. At the country level, support is highest in South and Central Eastern Europe, but variation does not otherwise seem to follow established differences between varieties of capitalisms or welfare state regimes. At the individual level, findings are broadly in line with the expectations of the political economy literature. Left-leaning individuals facing high labour market risk and/or on low incomes are more supportive of a BIG, whereas current union members are less likely to support a BIG, consistent with the insider-outsider literature. However, when controlling for confounding variables, union membership is not statistically significant, suggesting that it is not membership per se, but the characteristics of unionised workers that make them less supportive. In many countries, a coalition between centrist and left-leaning individuals therefore seems most promising, but its political feasibility depends on whether enough union members are favourable to a BIG and on the level of opposition from high income and/or conservative parts of the electorate.
Appendix
Baseline logistic regression analysis.
| Column | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 0.008 | 0.032 | 0.033 | 0.065*** | 0.081*** | 0.081*** | 0.076*** | 0.092*** | 0.086*** |
| Age | –0.020*** | –0.015*** | –0.015*** | –0.009** | –0.011** | –0.009** | –0.011** | –0.008* | –0.010** |
| Age squared | 0.000*** | 0.000** | 0.000** | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Years education | –0.011*** | –0.008*** | –0.008** | 0.007** | 0.006 | 0.005 | 0.006 | 0.008* | 0.009** |
| Self- employment family | –0.081** | –0.084** | –0.012 | 0.001 | 0.013 | 0.065 | 0.034 | 0.085* | |
| Union member | –0.015 | 0.046 | 0.029 | 0.033 | 0.039 | 0.027 | 0.031 | ||
| Income level | –0.065*** | –0.059*** | –0.057*** | –0.052*** | –0.052*** | –0.047*** | |||
| Left-right scale | –0.085*** | –0.085*** | –0.085*** | –0.085*** | –0.085*** | ||||
| Temporary worker | 0.094** | 0.079* | 0.081** | 0.065 | |||||
| Professionals | 0.300*** | 0.306*** | |||||||
| Technician | 0.156*** | 0.159*** | |||||||
| Clerical | 0.198*** | 0.199*** | |||||||
| Service | 0.294*** | 0.299*** | |||||||
| Agriculture | 0.159* | 0.172* | |||||||
| Craft | 0.277*** | 0.283*** | |||||||
| Operator | 0.305*** | 0.309*** | |||||||
| Elementary | 0.387*** | 0.383*** | |||||||
| Self-employed (other) | –0.125* | –0.131** | |||||||
| Farmer | –0.159 | –0.116 | |||||||
| Pensions | –0.016 | –0.020 | |||||||
| Unemployed | 0.303*** | 0.310*** | |||||||
| Other benefits | 0.270*** | 0.260*** | |||||||
| Investor | –0.098 | –0.065 | |||||||
| Other sources | –0.245* | –0.257* | |||||||
| Constant | 0.899*** | 0.721*** | 0.711*** | 0.730*** | 1.165*** | 1.095*** | 1.088*** | 0.746*** | 0.742*** |
| Observations | 35,965 | 33,271 | 33,173 | 28,670 | 26,534 | 26,534 | 26,464 | 26,194 | 26,124 |
| Number of groups | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 | 21 |
Note: Standard errors in parentheses; *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.
Country level results.
| Column | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | AT | BE | CH | CZ | DE | EE | ES | FI | FR | GB |
| Male | –0.088 | –0.008 | 0.253* | –0.047 | 0.053 | –0.036 | 0.053 | 0.144 | –0.043 | 0.364*** |
| Age | –0.007 | 0.015 | 0.009 | –0.034 | –0.030* | –0.012 | –0.023 | –0.005 | –0.025 | –0.024 |
| Age squared | 0.000 | –0.000 | –0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000* | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Years education | 0.024 | 0.016 | –0.002 | –0.032 | 0.031* | –0.074*** | 0.000 | 0.052*** | 0.014 | 0.001 |
| Self- employment family | 0.345 | 0.139 | 0.115 | –0.065 | 0.192 | –0.276 | 0.404* | –0.023 | –0.016 | 0.181 |
| Union member | 0.350** | –0.062 | 0.071 | 0.307 | –0.088 | 0.363 | –0.015 | 0.049 | 0.144 | –0.235 |
| Income level | –0.001 | –0.055** | –0.119*** | 0.047* | –0.086*** | –0.047* | –0.066** | –0.053** | –0.003 | –0.056** |
| Left-right scale | –0.111*** | –0.112*** | –0.318*** | –0.134*** | –0.140*** | –0.004 | –0.110*** | –0.136*** | –0.118*** | –0.101*** |
| Temporary worker | 0.429 | –0.172 | –0.191 | 0.172 | 0.260* | 0.396* | –0.173 | –0.087 | 0.132 | 0.163 |
| Professionals | –0.072 | –0.024 | 0.142 | –0.019 | 0.538*** | 0.317 | 0.927*** | 0.426 | –0.067 | 0.710*** |
| Technician | –0.428 | –0.198 | –0.105 | –0.109 | 0.313 | 0.427* | 0.833** | 0.084 | –0.310 | 0.662*** |
| Clerical | –0.281 | –0.128 | –0.465 | 0.197 | 0.268 | 0.389 | 0.579 | 0.582* | 0.065 | 0.277 |
| Service | –0.262 | 0.029 | 0.234 | 0.228 | 0.563*** | 0.150 | 0.825*** | 0.097 | –0.312 | 0.682*** |
| Agriculture | –0.345 | –0.117 | –0.779 | 0.504 | 0.824** | 0.115 | 1.003** | 0.445 | –0.559 | 0.554 |
| Craft | 0.126 | –0.235 | 0.334 | 0.071 | 0.713*** | 0.039 | 0.988*** | 0.471 | –0.377 | 0.175 |
| Operator | 0.222 | –0.379 | 0.217 | 0.297 | 0.355 | 0.621*** | 0.567 | 0.496 | –0.377 | 0.512 |
| Elementary | 0.110 | 0.136 | –0.003 | 0.122 | 0.428 | 0.208 | 0.685* | 0.342 | –0.246 | 0.582** |
| Self-employed (other) | –0.382 | 0.022 | 0.046 | –0.035 | –0.160 | 0.433 | –0.350 | 0.321 | 0.079 | –0.656** |
| Farmer | 0.341 | 0.083 | –0.003 | –1.307 | 1.500* | –0.960 | 0.244 | 0.121 | –0.694 | |
| Pensions | –0.118 | 0.333 | 0.275 | –0.110 | –0.114 | 0.235 | –0.324 | –0.065 | 0.136 | –0.188 |
| Unemployed | 0.650* | 0.250 | –0.652 | 0.666 | 0.599* | 1.181* | 0.468 | 0.087 | 0.329 | 0.238 |
| Other benefits | 0.401 | 0.927** | 1.344 | 1.043* | 1.166** | 0.462 | 1.362** | –0.280 | 0.390 | 0.079 |
| Investor | 0.516 | –1.683 | 0.015 | 2.102** | 0.122 | –0.131 | 0.089 | –0.315 | ||
| Other sources | 1.052 | –0.122 | –1.149 | 0.887 | –0.872* | –0.574 | –0.582 | –0.101 | 0.350 | –0.337 |
| Constant | 0.226 | 0.945 | 1.493** | 1.654** | 0.652 | 1.225** | 0.811 | 0.396 | 1.164** | 1.064* |
| Observations | 1,286 | 1,464 | 1,105 | 1,381 | 2,317 | 1,564 | 1,112 | 1,623 | 1,570 | 1,357 |
| Column | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (18) | (19) | (20) | (21) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Country | HU | IE | IS | IT | LT | NL | NO | PL | PT | SE | SI |
| Male | –0.268 | 0.568*** | 0.323* | 0.154 | –0.072 | 0.131 | –0.112 | 0.147 | 0.497*** | 0.173 | –0.229 |
| Age | 0.003 | –0.033 | –0.033 | –0.019 | –0.046 | 0.021 | –0.022 | –0.022 | –0.005 | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Age squared | –0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 | –0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | –0.000 | –0.000 | –0.000 |
| Years education | –0.026 | 0.014 | 0.030 | 0.005 | –0.045 | 0.021 | 0.045** | –0.020 | –0.004 | 0.036 | 0.001 |
| Self- employment family | –0.578 | 0.338* | 0.458** | –0.059 | 0.018 | –0.039 | 0.148 | –0.108 | –0.054 | 0.541*** | 0.123 |
| Union member | –0.836** | –0.057 | 0.327 | –0.448* | 1.062** | 0.237 | –0.111 | 0.463 | –0.580** | 0.077 | 0.198 |
| Income level | 0.002 | –0.046* | –0.075** | –0.079** | 0.050 | –0.074*** | –0.043* | –0.078** | –0.033 | –0.093*** | –0.002 |
| Left-right scale | 0.054* | –0.003 | –0.120*** | –0.014 | 0.099** | –0.160*** | –0.079*** | 0.043 | –0.045 | –0.138*** | –0.073** |
| Temporary worker | 0.664* | –0.066 | 0.863*** | 0.069 | 0.199 | –0.128 | –0.137 | –0.327* | 0.093 | 0.390* | 0.643** |
| Professionals | –0.226 | 0.219 | 0.143 | –0.038 | 0.731** | 0.395* | 0.309 | 0.187 | 0.489 | –0.068 | –0.076 |
| Technician | –0.129 | –0.012 | 0.230 | –0.395 | 0.713* | 0.281 | 0.194 | 0.294 | 0.378 | 0.078 | –0.137 |
| Clerical | –0.254 | 0.391 | 0.673 | –0.354 | 1.043** | 0.343 | 0.107 | 0.237 | 0.393 | –0.375 | 0.134 |
| Service | –0.335 | 0.723*** | 0.849*** | –0.436 | 0.868** | 0.435* | 0.384 | 0.552* | 0.395 | –0.051 | 0.173 |
| Agriculture | –1.287* | –0.501 | 0.006 | –0.819 | 1.138 | –0.175 | 0.492 | 0.838** | 0.688 | –0.355 | –0.561 |
| Craft | –0.070 | 0.521** | 0.076 | –0.416 | 0.894** | 0.236 | 0.530* | 0.538* | 0.134 | –0.102 | –0.053 |
| Operator | –0.550 | 0.029 | 0.697 | –0.021 | 0.698* | 0.077 | 0.478 | 0.557 | 0.560 | –0.209 | 0.392 |
| Elementary | –0.114 | 0.271 | 0.400 | –0.388 | 0.933** | 0.656** | 0.959** | 0.945** | 0.598 | 1.094** | 0.194 |
| Self-employed (other) | –1.039 | –0.340 | –0.076 | –0.257 | 0.703 | 0.143 | 0.189 | –0.801** | –0.392 | –0.461 | –0.091 |
| Farmer | 1.676 | –0.369 | –1.097 | –0.282 | 0.271 | –0.433 | 0.316 | 0.218 | –1.474 | 0.572 | |
| Pensions | –0.184 | –0.181 | –0.215 | –0.238 | –0.179 | –0.085 | –0.078 | 0.052 | 0.109 | 0.024 | –0.211 |
| Unemployed | –0.290 | 0.464* | –0.770 | –0.254 | –0.299 | –0.319 | 1.679** | 0.995 | –0.031 | –0.486 | –0.479 |
| Other benefits | –0.595 | 0.515* | 0.978 | –1.628 | –2.142*** | –0.062 | 0.095 | 1.022 | 0.067 | –0.140 | –0.150 |
| Investor | –1.134 | –0.319 | –0.599 | –0.334 | 0.817 | –0.448 | |||||
| Other sources | –0.194 | –0.034 | –0.082 | –0.780 | –0.621 | 0.957 | –0.838 | 1.903 | 0.210 | ||
| Constant | 1.526 | 0.766 | 0.639 | 1.227 | 1.128 | 0.199 | –0.268 | 1.009 | 0.760 | 0.322 | 1.195 |
| Observations | 689 | 1,500 | 707 | 827 | 1,066 | 1,306 | 1,318 | 896 | 946 | 1,282 | 783 |
Note: Robust standard errors in parentheses; *** p < 0.01, ** p < 0.05, * p < 0.1.
Acknowledgments
I would like to thank Michael Ganslmeier for excellent research assistance. For comments on previous versions of this manuscript, I am also grateful to the participants of the ESPANET and Basic Income Earth Network (BIEN) conferences in 2018.
References
Arts, W., & Gelissen, J. (2002). Three worlds of welfare capitalism or more? A state-of-the-art report. Journal of European Social, 12(2), 137–158.10.1177/0952872002012002114Search in Google Scholar
Beramendi, P., Häusermann, S., Kitschelt, H., & Kriesi, H. (2015). The politics of advanced capitalism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9781316163245Search in Google Scholar
Clasen, J., & Clegg, D. (2003). Unemployment protection and labour market reform in France and Great Britain in 1990s: Solidarity versus activation? Journal of Social Policy, 32(3), 361–381.10.1017/S0047279403007049Search in Google Scholar
De Wispelaere, J. (2016). Basic income in our time: Improving political prospects through policy learning? Journal of Social Policy, 45(4), 617–634.10.1017/S0047279416000039Search in Google Scholar
De Wispelaere, J., & Stirton, L. (2012). The politics of unconditional basic income: Bringing bureaucracy back in. Political Studiesi, 61(4), 915–932.10.1111/j.1467-9248.2012.01004.xSearch in Google Scholar
Emmenegger, P., & Davidsson, J. (2013). Defending the organisation, not the members: Unions and the reform of job security legislation in Western Europe. European Journal of Political Research, 52(3), 339–363.10.1111/j.1475-6765.2012.02073.xSearch in Google Scholar
Esping-Andersen, G. (1990). The three worlds of welfare capitalism. Cambridge: Polity Press.Search in Google Scholar
ESS (2016) European social survey round 8 data. Data file edition 2.0. NSD - Norwegian Centre for Research Data, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data for ESS ERIC.Search in Google Scholar
Ferrera, M. (1996). The ‘Southern Model’ of Welfare in Social Europe. Journal of European Social Policy, 6(1), 17–37.10.1177/095892879600600102Search in Google Scholar
Forum. (2017). Universal basic income: The promise vs the practicalities, Forum. Intereconomics, 52(March/April), 2.Search in Google Scholar
Gordon, J. (2015). Protecting the unemployed: Varieties of unionism and the evolution of unemployment benefits and active labor market policy in the rich democracies. Socio-Economic Review, 13(1), 79–99.10.1093/ser/mwu029Search in Google Scholar
Guo, G., & Zhao, H. X. (2000). Multilevel modeling for binary data. Annual Review of Sociology, 26, 441–462.10.1146/annurev.soc.26.1.441Search in Google Scholar
Hall, P., & Soskice, D. (2001). Varieties of capitalism the institutional foundations of comparative advantage. New York: Oxford University Press.10.1093/0199247757.001.0001Search in Google Scholar
Hassel, A. (2017). Unconditional basic income is a dead end. In P. Van Parijs (Eds.), Basic Income and the Left: A European Debate. Social Europe. https://www.socialeurope.eu/book/basic-income-and-the-left-a-european-debate.Search in Google Scholar
Hausermann, S., Kurer, T., & Schwander, H. (2015). High-skilled outsiders? Labour market vulnerability, education and welfare state preferences. Socio-Economic Review, 13(2), 235–258.10.1093/ser/mwu026Search in Google Scholar
Huber, E., & Stephens, J. D. (2001). Development and crisis of the welfare state. Parties and policies in global markets. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.10.7208/chicago/9780226356495.001.0001Search in Google Scholar
Kay, J. (2017). The basics of basic income. InterEconomics, 52(2), (March/April), 69–74.10.1007/s10272-017-0648-9Search in Google Scholar
Knotz, C. M. (2012) ‘Measuring the ‘New Balance of Rights and Responsibilities’ in labor market policy: A quantitative overview of activation strategies in 20 OECD countries’, Zes working paper, number 6. Bremen University.Search in Google Scholar
Marx, P., & Picot, G. (2013). The party preferences of atypical workers in Germany. Journal of European Social Policy, 23(2), 164–178.10.1177/0958928712471222Search in Google Scholar
Pierson, P. (2001). The new politics of the welfare state. Oxford: Oxford University Press.10.1093/0198297564.001.0001Search in Google Scholar
Pontusson, J. (2013). Unionization, inequality and redistribution. British Journal of Industrial Relations, 51(4), 797–825.10.1111/bjir.12045Search in Google Scholar
Rehm, P. (2011). Social policy by popular demand. World Politics, 63(2), 271–299.10.1017/S0043887111000037Search in Google Scholar
Rueda, D. (2007). Social democracy inside out. Partisanship and labour market policy in industrialised democracies. New York: Oxford University Press.10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199216352.001.0001Search in Google Scholar
Smedley, S. (2017) ‘Half of UK adults would support universal basic income in principle’, IPSOS Moris. Accessed in April 2018 at: https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/half-uk-adults-would-support-universal-basic-income-principleSearch in Google Scholar
Svallfors, S. (1997). Worlds of welfare and attitudes to redistribution: A comparison of eight western nations. European Sociological Review, 13(3), 283–304.10.1093/oxfordjournals.esr.a018219Search in Google Scholar
Van Parijs, P. (2017). Basic income and the left: A European debate. Social Europe. https://www.socialeurope.eu/book/basic-income-and-the-left-a-european-debate.10.4159/9780674978072Search in Google Scholar
Van Parijs, P., & Vanderborght, Y. (2017). Basic income: A radical proposal for a free society and a Sane economy. Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press.10.4159/9780674978072Search in Google Scholar
Van Vliet, O., & Caminada, K. (2012) ‘Unemployment replacement rates dataset among 34 welfare states 1971-2009: An update, extension and modification of the Scruggs’ welfare state entitlements data set’, NEUJOBS Special Report No. 2, Leiden University.10.2139/ssrn.1991214Search in Google Scholar
Vlandas, T. (2013a). Mixing apples with oranges? Partisanship and active labour market policies in Europe. Journal of European Social Policy, 23(3), 3–20.10.1177/0958928712463161Search in Google Scholar
Vlandas, T. (2013b). The politics of temporary work regulation in Western Europe: Solving the French Puzzle. Politics and Society, 41(3), 425–460.10.1177/0032329213493754Search in Google Scholar
Vlandas, T. (2016) ‘Coordination, inclusiveness and wage inequality between median and bottom income workers’, Comparative European Politics. First online 23 May 2016.10.1057/cep.2016.25Search in Google Scholar
© 2019 Walter de Gruyter GmbH, Berlin/Boston
