Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Climate change impact assessment, flood management, and mitigation strategies in Pakistan for sustainable future

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Environmental Science and Pollution Research Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

In recent years, flooding has not only disrupted social growth but has also hampered economic development. In many nations, this global epidemic has affected lives, property, and financial damage. Pakistan has experienced many floods in the past several years. Due to economic, social, and climate change, Pakistan is at risk of flooding. In order to overcome this problem, the institutions of the country have taken various measures. However, these measures are not sufficient enough to ensure the safety of communities and areas that are prone to disasters with a rapid onset. Hence, it is imperative to forecast future flood-related risks and take necessary measures to mitigate the adverse impacts and losses caused by floods. This article is aimed at exploring floods in Pakistan, analyze the adverse effects of floods on humans and the environment, and propose possible sustainable options for the future. The aqueduct flood analyzer software was used to examine the impact of floods on gross domestic product (GDP), urban damage, and people livelihood, with several years of flood protection plans. To adequately assess the future changes, various flood protection levels and three scenarios for each level of protection were employed, which represent the socio-economic and climate change. The findings revealed that if there is no flood protection, a 2-year flood has a 50% probability of flood occurrence in any given area and may cause no significant impact on GDP, population, and urban damage. Similarly, the probability of a flood occurrence in a five-year flood is 20%, which may cause the country’s GDP about $20.4 billion, with 8.4 million population at risk and $1.4 billion urban damage. Furthermore, a 10-year flood has a 10% probability of flood occurrence and may affect the national GDP by $28.9 billion, with 11.9 million affected population and $2.4 billion urban damage in Pakistan. The government of Pakistan should devise appropriate climate change policies, improve disaster preparedness, build new dams, and update relevant departments to mitigate the adverse effects of flooding.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abid M, Schilling J, Scheffran J, Zulfiqar F (2016) Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan. Sci Total Environ 547:447–460

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Adger WN, Huq S, Brown K, Conway D, Hulme M (2003) Adaptation to climate change in the developing world. Prog Dev Stud 3:179–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ali A. Indus basin floods: mechanisms, impacts, and management. 2013.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ali A, Erenstein O (2017) Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan. Clim Risk Manag 16:183–194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aslam M (2018) Flood management current state, challenges and prospects in Pakistan: a review. Mehran Univ Res J Eng Technol 37:297–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Azam K, Yussof R, Marwat AK (2012) The role of coping capacities in disaster perspective: a case of Pakistan flash floods, 2010. OIDA Int J Sustain Develop 4:109–126

    Google Scholar 

  • Begum RA, Sarkar MSK, Jaafar AH, Pereira JJ (2014) Toward conceptual frameworks for linking disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Int J Disast Risk Reduc 10:362–373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bello M, Salau E, Galadima O, Ali I (2013) Knowledge, perception and adaptation strategies to climate change among farmers of Central State Nigeria. Sustain Agricult Res 2:107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dercon S (2004) Growth and shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia. J Dev Econ 74:309–329

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Group MAS (2008) Achieving the millennium development goals in Africa: recommendations of the MDG Africa Steering Group, June 2008. United Nations Publications, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammond MJ, Chen AS, Djordjević S, Butler D, Mark O (2015) Urban flood impact assessment: a state-of-the-art review. Urban Water J 12:14–29

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hillier D, Nightingale K. How disasters disrupt development: recommendations for the post-2015 development framework. 2013.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Contribution of working group III to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: IPCC, 2007: Climate change 2007: mitigation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part a: global and sectoral aspects. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Iqbal AR (2011) Flood management in Pakistan–a case study of flood 2010. ISSRA Papers, pp 55–66

    Google Scholar 

  • Jonkman SN, Bočkarjova M, Kok M, Bernardini P (2008) Integrated hydrodynamic and economic modelling of flood damage in the Netherlands. Ecol Econ 66:77–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kavvada A, Held A (2018) Analysis-ready earth observation data and the united nations sustainable development goals. In: IGARSS 2018-2018 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium. IEEE, New York, pp 434–436

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Kawasaki A, Kawamura G, Zin WW (2020) A local level relationship between floods and poverty: a case in Myanmar. Int J Disast Risk Reduc 42:101348

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khan AN (2013) Analysis of 2010-flood causes, nature and magnitude in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Nat Hazards 66:887–904

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khan B, Iqbal MJ, Yosufzai MAK (2011) Flood risk assessment of river Indus of Pakistan. Arab J Geosci 4:115–122

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Khan I, Javed T, Khan A, Lei H, Muhammad I, Ali I et al (2019) Impact assessment of land use change on surface temperature and agricultural productivity in Peshawar-Pakistan. Environ Sci Pollut Res 26:33076–33085

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Khan I, Lei H, Shah IA, Ali I, Khan I, Muhammad I et al (2020) Farm households’ risk perception, attitude and adaptation strategies in dealing with climate change: promise and perils from rural Pakistan. Land Use Policy 104395:91

    Google Scholar 

  • Kreft S, Eckstein D, Junghans L, Kerestan C, Hagen U (2013) Global climate risk index 2014. In: Who suffers most from extreme weather events, vol 1Á31

    Google Scholar 

  • Kundzewicz ZW, Budhakooncharoen S, Bronstert A, Hoff H, Lettenmaier D, Menzel L et al (2002) Coping with variability and change: floods and droughts. In: Natural Resources Forum, vol 26. Wiley Online Library, Hoboken, pp 263–274

    Google Scholar 

  • Kurukulasuriya P, Rosenthal S. Climate change and agriculture: a review of impacts and adaptations. 2013.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lind N, Pandey M, Nathwani J (2009) Assessing and affording the control of flood risk. Struct Saf 31:143–147

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luino F, Turconi L, Paliaga G, Faccini F, Marincioni F (2018) Torrential floods in the upper Soana Valley (NW Italian Alps): geomorphological processes and risk-reduction strategies. Int J Disast Risk Reduc 27:343–354

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mirza MMQ (2003) Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt? Clim Pol 3:233–248

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohamed Shaluf I (2007) Disaster types. Disast Preven Manag 16:704–717

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mustafa D (2002) Linking access and vulnerability: perceptions of irrigation and flood management in Pakistan. Prof Geogr 54:94–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mustafa D, Wescoat JL Jr (1997) Development of flood hazards policy in the Indus River Basin of Pakistan, 1947–1996. Water Int 22:238–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mustafa D, Wrathall D (2011) Indus basin floods of 2010: souring of a Faustian bargain? Water Altern 4

  • Patt AG, Schröter D (2008) Perceptions of climate risk in Mozambique: implications for the success of adaptation strategies. Glob Environ Chang 18:458–467

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Poiani A (2006) Effects of floods on distribution and reproduction of aquatic birds. Adv Ecol Res 39:63–83

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rojas R, Feyen L, Watkiss P (2013) Climate change and river floods in the European Union: socio-economic consequences and the costs and benefits of adaptation. Glob Environ Chang 23:1737–1751

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Iglesius A, Yang X-B, Epstein PR, Chivian E. Climate change and extreme weather events-implications for food production, plant diseases, and pests. 2001.

    Google Scholar 

  • Samu R, Kentel AS (2018) An analysis of the flood management and mitigation measures in Zimbabwe for a sustainable future. Int J Disast Risk Reduc 31:691–697

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sardar A, Javed SA, Amir-ud-Din R (2016) Natural disasters and economic growth in Pakistan: an enquiry into the floods related hazards’ triad, vol 10. Department of Environmental Economics, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad, Working Paper

    Google Scholar 

  • Sayed SA, González PA (2014) Flood disaster profile of Pakistan: a review. Sci J Public Health 2:144–149

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sayers P, Yuanyuan L, Galloway G, Penning-Rowsell E, Fuxin S, Kang W, et al. Flood risk management: a strategic approach. Asian Development Bank, GIWP, UNESCO and WWF-UK, 2013.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shaluf IM (2007) An overview on disasters. Disast Preven Manag 16:687–703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smit B, Skinner MW (2002) Adaptation options in agriculture to climate change: a typology. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Chang 7:85–114

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Smith K, Ward R. Floods: physical processes and human impacts: John Wiley and Sons Ltd, 1998.

    Google Scholar 

  • Spelman L, Rubel D, Murrell DF, See JA, Hewitt D, Foley P et al (2016) Treatment of face and scalp solar (actinic) keratosis with daylight-mediated photodynamic therapy is possible throughout the year in Australia: evidence from a clinical and meteorological study. Australas J Dermatol 57:24–28

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stephenson RS, DuFrane C (2002) Disasters and development: Part 2: understanding and exploiting disaster-development linkages. Prehospital Disast Med 17:170–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Strömberg D (2007) Natural disasters, economic development, and humanitarian aid. J Econ Perspect 21:199–222

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tariq MAUR (2013) Risk-based flood zoning employing expected annual damages: the Chenab River case study. Stoch Env Res Risk A 27:1957–1966

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tariq MAUR, Van de Giesen N (2012) Floods and flood management in Pakistan. Phys Chem Earth, Parts A/B/C 47:11–20

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thomalla F, Downing T, Spanger-Siegfried E, Han G, Rockström J (2006) Reducing hazard vulnerability: towards a common approach between disaster risk reduction and climate adaptation. Disasters 30:39–48

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Thornton PK, Ericksen PJ, Herrero M, Challinor AJ (2014) Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review. Glob Chang Biol 20:3313–3328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ul Hasan SS, Zaidi SSZ (2012) Flooded economy of Pakistan. J Dev Agric Econ 4:331–338

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Availability of data and materials

N/A

Funding

N/A

Author information

Author notes

  1. Imran Khan and Hongdou Lei contributed equally to this work.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Binjiang College of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, No. 333, Xishan Road, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province, China

    Imran Khan

  2. College of Economics & Management, Northwest A&F University, 3 Taicheng Road, Yangling, 712100, Shaanxi, China

    Imran Khan & Hongdou Lei

  3. School of Management Science and Engineering, Ministry of Education & Collaborative Innovation Centre on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CICFEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing City, Jiangsu Province, China

    Ashfaq Ahmad Shah

  4. School of Management, Northwestern Polytechnic University, Xi’an, China

    Inayat Khan

  5. Guangxi Key Laboratory of Agric-Environment and Agric-Products Safety, Agricultural College of Guangxi University, Nanning, 530004, China

    Ihsan Muhammad

Authors
  1. Imran Khan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Hongdou Lei
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Ashfaq Ahmad Shah
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Inayat Khan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Ihsan Muhammad
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

Imran Khan and Hongdou Lei conceived and designed the research. Imran Khan and Hongdou Lei analyzed the data and wrote the paper. Inayat and Ihsan Muhammad proofread, edited, and revised the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Imran Khan.

Ethics declarations

Ethics approval and consent of participate

N/A

Consent for publication

N/A

Competing interest

The authors declare no competing interests.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Ilhan Ozturk

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Highlights

• Climatic extremes including floods are expected to increase in coming decades.

• Due to economic, social, and climate change, Pakistan is at risk of flooding.

• Flood forecasts and protection levels can help to reduce the future adverse impacts.

• Flood management and mitigation strategies are crucial for sustainable future.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Khan, I., Lei, H., Shah, A.A. et al. Climate change impact assessment, flood management, and mitigation strategies in Pakistan for sustainable future. Environ Sci Pollut Res 28, 29720–29731 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12801-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-12801-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation