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Projected climate change in the western North Pacific at the end of the 21st century from ensemble simulations with a high-resolution regional ocean model

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A Correction to this article was published on 07 February 2022

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Abstract

Future climate change in the western North Pacific at the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) was examined using a high-resolution regional ocean model (10-km mesh) under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The range of uncertainty in future projections was estimated from ensemble simulations. Projected results indicated no significant change in the Kuroshio net transport and the latitude of the Kuroshio Extension under both RCP scenarios; the changes were within the range of variability associated with the present climate. Projected sea surface temperature (SST) increased by as much as several degrees Celsius, especially in SST fronts, including the subarctic frontal zone. The significant increase of SST east of Japan was attributed to the northward expansion of the northern part of the subtropical gyre in response to basin-scale atmospheric changes. The projected area of sea ice in the Sea of Okhotsk decreased in both RCP scenarios. The projected offshore sea-level rise was larger in the subtropical gyre and smaller in the subpolar gyre. The sea-level rise along the coast of Japan, in contrast, showed no significant spatial variation. The mean sea-level rise along the coast of Japan was mostly comparable to the global mean sea-level rise.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank many individuals at the atmospheric environment and ocean division of Japan Meteorological Agency for their sustained efforts of ocean observations and analysis of ocean data. Constructive comments made by the two anonymous reviewers were helpful for improving the manuscript. This work was funded by the Meteorological Research Institute. Partial support by MEXT Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (TOUGOU: Grant No. JPMXD0717935561 and SICAT: Grant No. JPMXD0715667163) was greatly acknowledged. TW was supported by the Nansen Center (NERSC) basic funding.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth System Modeling Research, Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0052, Japan

    Goro Yamanaka, Hideyuki Nakano, Kei Sakamoto, Takahiro Toyoda & L. Shogo Urakawa

  2. Department of Climate and Geochemistry Research, Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-0052, Japan

    Hiroyuki Tsujino

  3. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan

    Shiro Nishikawa & Yoichi Ishikawa

  4. The Nansen Center, Thormøhlens gate 47, 5006, Bergen, Norway

    Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu

  5. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Jahnebakken 5, 5007, Bergen, Norway

    Tsuyoshi Wakamatsu

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  1. Goro Yamanaka
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  2. Hideyuki Nakano
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Correspondence to Goro Yamanaka.

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Yamanaka, G., Nakano, H., Sakamoto, K. et al. Projected climate change in the western North Pacific at the end of the 21st century from ensemble simulations with a high-resolution regional ocean model. J Oceanogr 77, 539–560 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-021-00593-7

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