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Latent stage model for carsharing usage frequency estimation with Montréal case study

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Abstract

In order to predict the monthly usage frequency of members of a car-sharing scheme by analysing the gradual change of behaviour over time, a new model is proposed based on the Markov Chains model with latent stages. The model accounts for changing patterns of frequency from soon after signing up to later stages by including five latent user ‘life stages’. In applying the model to panel data from Montreal’s free-floating carsharing service the authors calculate each user’s ’lifetime’ applied to ‘system operation time’, the time period since the start of the scheme. Three-fold validation reveals effective performance of the model for both lifetime and system operation time dimensions. The model is further applied to illustrate how previous carsharing experience and the extension of the scheme to a larger area can affect usage frequency changes. We conclude that this approach is effective for usage prediction for novel transport schemes.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Communauto for providing the data needed for this research. We acknowledge the financial support of the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (Project 18K04390). We further would like to thank Jane Singer for providing us with helpful editorial comments.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Urban Management, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan

    Cen Zhang & Jan-Dirk Schmöcker

  2. Department of Mathematical and Industrial Engineering, Polytechnique Montréal, Interuniversity Research Centre on Enterprise Networks Logistics and Transport (CIRRELT), Montreal, Canada

    Martin Trépanier

Authors
  1. Cen Zhang
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  2. Jan-Dirk Schmöcker
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  3. Martin Trépanier
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Correspondence to Jan-Dirk Schmöcker.

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Appendix 1: Comparison of state transitions

Appendix 1: Comparison of state transitions

See Table 9

Table 9 Difference between estimated parameters in 4 conditions (with/without experience; during T1/T2) (Red (blue) indicates larger (smaller) values in the respective comparison, white similar values)
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Zhang, C., Schmöcker, JD. & Trépanier, M. Latent stage model for carsharing usage frequency estimation with Montréal case study. Transportation 49, 185–211 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11116-021-10173-9

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