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Research on reliability analytical method of complex system based on CBN model

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Abstract

Considering that there are often many variables correlated to each other in complex system, copula functions are introduced into reliability analysis. While with the increase of variables, the dimension of copula function will be high. For the above problems, Bayesian network (BN) is introduced into reliability analysis and a copula Bayesian network (CBN) model is proposed. Taking driving system of new rail mounted container gantry (NRMG) as an example, Gaussian copula and t-copula are used and compared in the process of generating correlation data. Additionally, in order to construct local copula function between parent and descendent nodes, Gumbel and Clayton copulas are compared based on Akaike information criterion. Finally, the reliability inference based on CBN model is performed. Compared with BN model, the rationality of CBN model is verified, and the results show that the reliability calculated by CBN model is smaller, which will put forward higher requirements for the driving system.

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Acknowledgments

This research is supported by Shanghai Science and Technology Commission Project (No. 19DZ1100202) and the Foundation of Key Laboratory of Performance Evolution and Control for Engineering Structures of Ministry of Education, Tongji University (Grant No. 2018-kf3).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Mechanical Engineering, Tongji University, 4800 Caoan Road, Shanghai, 201804, China

    Yuantao Sun, Kaige Chen, Chao Liu, Qing Zhang & Xianrong Qin

  2. Key Laboratory of Performance Evolution and Control for Engineering Structures of Ministry of Education, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai, 200092, China

    Yuantao Sun

Authors
  1. Yuantao Sun
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  2. Kaige Chen
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  3. Chao Liu
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  4. Qing Zhang
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  5. Xianrong Qin
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Yuantao Sun.

Additional information

Yuantao Sun is an Associate Professor in the School of Mechanical Engineering of Tongji University. His research interests include fatigue crack life, structural reliability and correlation analysis of failure modes.

Kaige Chen is a master candidate in the School of Mechanical Engineering of Tongji University. His research interests include reliability analysis of mechanical structure and contact analysis of micro planetary driving system.

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Sun, Y., Chen, K., Liu, C. et al. Research on reliability analytical method of complex system based on CBN model. J Mech Sci Technol 35, 107–120 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12206-020-1210-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12206-020-1210-4

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