Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Analysing Socio-Economic Change Using a Time Comparable Geodemographic Classification: England and Wales, 1991–2011

  • Published:
Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Geodemographic classifications are used to understand social phenomena. Within the private sector, for business planning accounting for underlying spatial differences in economic, social and demographic composition of geographical areas. In the public sector geodemographics is used in health, local governance and social research. Bespoke geodemographic systems help public health authorities to target neighbourhoods most at need of health campaigns. Geodemographic classifications are invariably cross-sectional and static. Having comparable geodemographic classifications over a period of time will help demonstrate changes in socio-economic and demographic structures. A time-comparable geodemographic scheme can bring out changes in multivariable compositional characteristics which are otherwise hidden by cross-sectional measures. This paper reports on variable selection, the conversion of inputs to a consistent geography and the creation of directly comparable geodemographic classifications of small areas across England and Wales for 1991, 2001 and 2011. Changes and stability in area characteristics are then analysed. The results show that most neighbourhoods are allocated into the same area type over time. Where there is change, this can be themed as: Socio-economic polarisation, characterised by a decrease in neighbourhoods found in the middle of the socio-economic spectrum, with an increase in number of areas at either end; Growth in the number of neighbourhoods with non-White ethnic residents, mainly Black ethnic minorities and Asian based communities and; Reorganisation and increase in classifications relating to urban areas, signalling development or growth of metropolitan areas.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abbas, J., Ojo, A., & Orange, S. (2009). Geodemographics–a tool for health intelligence? Public Health, 123(1), e35–e39.

    Google Scholar 

  • Alvaredo, F., Morelli, S., & Atkinson, B. (2017). The challenges of measuring UK wealth inequalities in the 2000s. Fiscal Studies, 37(1), 13–33.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ashby, D. I., & Longley, P. A. (2005). Geocomputation, geodemographics and resource allocation for local policing. Transactions in GIS, 9(1), 53–72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bailey, S., Charlton, J., Dollamore, G. and Fitzpatrick, J. (1999) The ONS classification of local and health authorities of Great Britain: Revised for authorities in 1999. Studies in Medical and Population Subjects, 63. p 152. London: HMSO.

  • Batliwala, S. (2006). Measuring social change: Assumptions, myths and realities. Alliance, 11(1), 12–14.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bromley, C., Curtice, J., & Given, L. (2007). Attitudes to discrimination in Scotland: 2006 Scottish social attitudes survey. Edinburgh: Scottish Government.

    Google Scholar 

  • Byrne, D. (2005). Social exclusion (issues in society). London: Open University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Catney, G. (2017). Towards an enhanced understanding of ethnic group geographies using measures of clustering and unevenness. The Geographical Journal, 183(1), 71–83. https://doi.org/10.1111/geoj.12162.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Clapson, M. (2003). Suburban century: Social change and urban growth in England and the USA. Oxford: Berg.

    Google Scholar 

  • Debenham, J.C., 2002. Understanding geodemographic classification: Creating the building blocks for an extension. Working Paper. School of Geography, Leeds: Leeds University.

  • Dorling, D., & Rees, P. (2003). A nation still dividing: The British census and social polarisation 1971–2001. Environment and Planning A, 35, 1287–1313.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dorling, D., Rigby, J., Wheeler, B., Ballas, D., Thomas, B., & Fahmy, E. (2007). Poverty, wealth and place in Britain, 1968 to 2005. Bristol: Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Durduran, S. S. (2015). Automatic classification of high resolution land cover using a new data weighting procedure: The combination of k-means clustering algorithm and central tendency measures (KMC-CTM). Applied Soft Computing, 35, 136–150.

    Google Scholar 

  • Exeter, D. J., Feng, Z., Zhao, J., Cavadino, A., & Norman, P. (2019). The geographic harmonisation of Scotland’s small area census data, 1981 to 2011. Health & Place, 57, 22–26. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.healthplace.2019.02.003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fahmy, E., Gordon, D., Dorling, D., Rigby, J., & Wheeler, B. (2011). Poverty and place in Britain, 1968–99. Environment and Planning A, 43(3), 594–617.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gale, C., & Longley, P. (2013). Temporal uncertainty in a small area open geodemographic classification. Transactions in GIS, 17(4), 563–588.

    Google Scholar 

  • Garonna, P., & Triacca, U. (1999). Social change: Measurement and theory. International Statistical Review, 67(1), 49–62.

    Google Scholar 

  • Harris, R., Sleight, P., & Webber, R. (2005). Geodemographics, GIS and neighbourhood targeting (vol. 8). Chichester: John Wiley & Sons.

  • Harris, R., Johnston, R., & Burgess, S. (2007). Neighborhoods, ethnicity and school choice: Developing a statistical framework for geodemographic analysis. Population Research and Policy Review, 26(5–6), 553–579.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hulchanski, J. D. (2010). The three cities within Toronto: Income polarization among Toronto’s Neighbourhoods, 1970–2005. University of Toronto. http://www.urbancentre.utoronto.ca/pdfs/curp/tnrn/Three-Cities-Within-Toronto-2010-Final.pdf. Accessed: 12/11/2019.

  • Jivraj, S. (2020). Are self-reported health inequalities widening by income? An analysis of British pseudo birth cohorts born, 1920–1970. Journal Epidemiology & Community Health, 74, 255–259. https://doi.org/10.1136/jech-2019-213186.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jivraj, S., & Simpson, L. (2015). How has ethnic diversity grown? In S. Jivraj & L. Simpson (Eds.), Ethnic identity and inequalities in Britain: The dynamics of diversity. Bristol: Policy Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu, H., & Ong, C. (2008). Variable selection in clustering for marketing segmentation using genetic algorithms. Expert Systems with Applications, 34, 502–510.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lloyd, C. D., Catney, G., Williamson, P., & Bearman, N. (2017a). Exploring the utility of grids for analysing long term population change. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 66, 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2017.07.003.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lloyd, C. D., Catney, G., Williamson, P., Bearman, N., Norman, P. (2017b). Deprivation change in Britain (PopChange briefing 2). Centre for Spatial Demographics Research, Liverpool: University of Liverpool.

  • Lomax, N., Rees, P., Wohland, P., & Norman, P. (2020). The impacts of international migration on the UK’s ethnic populations. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 46(10), 177–199. https://doi.org/10.1080/1369183X.2019.1577726.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Longley, P. (2012). Geodemographics and the practices of geographic information science. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, 26(12), 2227–2237.

    Google Scholar 

  • McDonnell, D., Mohan, J., & Norman, P. (2020). Charity density and social need: A longitudinal perspective. Nonprofit and Voluntary Sector Quarterly. https://doi.org/10.1177/0899764020911199.

  • Naldi, M. C., & Campello, R. J. G. B. (2015). Comparison of distributed evolutionary k-means clustering algorithms. Neurocomputing, 163, 78–93.

    Google Scholar 

  • Norman, P. (2010). Identifying change over time in small area socio-economic deprivation. Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy, 2(3), 107–138.

    Google Scholar 

  • Norman, P. (2016). The changing geography of deprivation in Britain: 1971 to 2011 and beyond. In T. Champion & J. Falkingham (Eds.), Population change in the United Kingdom (pp. 193–214). London: Rowman and Littlefield.

    Google Scholar 

  • Norman, P., Darlington-Pollock, F. (2017). The changing geography of deprivation in Great Britain: Exploiting small area census data, 1971 to 2011. In: Stillwell, J. and Duke-Williams O. (eds). Unlocking the UK 2011 census: Handbook of census resources, methods and applications. Routledge: Abingdon, Oxon.

  • Norman, P., & Riva, M. (2012). Population health across space and time: The geographical harmonisation of the Office for National Statistics longitudinal study for England and Wales. Population, Space and Place, 18, 483–502.

    Google Scholar 

  • Norman, P., Rees, P., & Boyle, P. (2003). Achieving data compatibility over space and time: Creating consistent geographical zones. International Journal of Population Geography, 9(5), 365–386.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ojo, A., Vickers, D., & Ballas, D. (2013). Creating a small scale area classification for understanding the economic, social and housing characteristics of small geographical areas in the Philippines. Regional Science Policy and Practice, 5(1), 1–25.

    Google Scholar 

  • ONS, 2017. Census geography. Available at: https://ons.maps.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=ef72efd6adf64b11a2228f7b3e95deea. Accessed: 12/11/2019.

  • Owen, D. W. (2009). African migration to the UK and EU. CRER conference on African transnational and return migration in the context of homeland development from the perspectives of Euro-African relations and Latin American experience. University of Warwick, UK.

  • Oxford, S., Dorling, D., Mitchell, R., Shaw, M., & Davey Smith, G. (2002). Life and death of people of London: A historical GIS of Charles Booth’s inquiry. Health and Place, 8, 25–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • Petersen, J., Maurizio, G., Longley, P., Mateos, P., Atkinson, P., & Ashby, D. (2011). Geodemographics as a tool for targeting neighbourhoods in public health campaigns. Journal of Geographical Systems, 13(2), 173–192.

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfautz, H. (1967). Sociologist of the city. In H. Pfautz (Ed.), One the City: Physical pattern and social structure (selected writings of Charles Booth) (pp. 3–170). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rees, P., Denham, C., Charlton, J., Openshaw, S., Blake, M., & See, L. (2002). ONS classifications and GB profiles: Census typologies for researchers. In P. Rees, D. Martina, & P. Williamson (Eds.), The census data system (pp. 149–170). Chichester: Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Rugg, J., Rhodes, D., & Jones, A. (2002). Studying a niche market: UK students and the private rented sector. Housing Studies, 17(2), 289–303.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sabater, A. (2015). Between flows and places: Using geodemographics to explore EU migration across neighbourhoods in Britain. European Journal of Population, 31(2), 207–230.

    Google Scholar 

  • See, L., & Gibson, P. (2006). Using geodemographics and GIS for sustainable development. In M. Campagna (Ed.), GIS for sustainable development. London: Taylor and Francis.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shaw, A. (2004). Immigrant families in the UK. In J. Scott, J. Treas, & M. Richards (Eds.), The Blackwell companion to the sociology of families. Oxford: Blackwell Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shelton, N., Birkin, M., & Dorling, D. (2006). Where not to live: A geo-demographic classification of mortality for England and Wales, 1981–2000. Health and Place, 12, 557–564.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shuttleworth, I., & Lloyd, C. (2009). Are Northern Ireland’s communities dividing? Evidence from geographically consistent census of population data, 1971–2001. Environment and Planning A, 41(1), 213–229.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singleton, A., & Longley, P. (2009). Geodemographics, visualisation and social networks in applied geography. Applied Geography, 29(3), 289–298.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singleton, A. D., Wilson, A. G., & O’Brien, O. (2012). Geodemographics and spatial interaction: An integrated model for higher education. Journal of Geographical Systems, 14(2), 223–241.

    Google Scholar 

  • Singleton, A., Pavlis, M., & Longley, P. A. (2016). The stability of geodemographic cluster assignments over an intercensal period. Journal of Geographical Systems, 18(2), 97–123.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sleight, P. (1997). Targeting customers: How to use geodemographics and lifestyle data in your business. Henley-on-Thames: NTC Publications.

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith, D. P. (2009). ‘Student Geographies’, urban restructuring and the expansion of higher education. Environment and Planning A, 41, 1795–1804.

    Google Scholar 

  • Tsapanos, N., Tefas, A., Nikolaidis, N., & Pitas, I. (2015). A distributed framework for trimmed kernel -means clustering. Pattern Recognition, 48(8), 2685–2698.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vickers, D. (2010). England’s changing social geology. In J. Stillwell, P. Norman, C. Thomas, & P. Surridge (Eds.), Spatial and social disparities (pp. 37–52). London: Springer.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vickers, D. W., & Rees, P. H. (2006). Introducing the national classification of census output areas. Population Trends, 125, 15–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vickers, D., & Rees, P. (2007). Creating the UK national statistics 2001 output area classification. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (Statistics in Society), 170(2), 379–403.

    Google Scholar 

  • Voas, D., & Williamson, P. (2001). The diversity of diversity: A critique of geodemographic classification. Area, 33(1), 63–76.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weiss, M. J. (2000). The clustered world. New York: Little Brown.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Funding

This study was not funded.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Ramboll, 5th Floor, 7 Castle St, Edinburgh, EH2 3AH, UK

    Gordon McLachlan

  2. University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK

    Paul Norman

Authors
  1. Gordon McLachlan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Paul Norman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Paul Norman.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of Interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

McLachlan, G., Norman, P. Analysing Socio-Economic Change Using a Time Comparable Geodemographic Classification: England and Wales, 1991–2011. Appl. Spatial Analysis 14, 89–111 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-020-09346-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12061-020-09346-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation