Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

A Comparative Analysis of Foiled and Completed Mass Shootings

  • Published:
American Journal of Criminal Justice Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This study provides a comparative analysis of foiled and completed mass shootings in the United States between 2000 and 2019. Specifically, this work quantitatively examines differences in mass shooting perpetrator, motivation, and target characteristics. Findings identify significant predictors of foiled mass shootings including student-aged perpetrators, dyads, fame and ideological motivations, as well as school and religious targets. Completed mass shootings more often involved perpetrators with a criminal history, victim-specific motivations, and targeting workplace or open-space locations. A discussion of findings highlights implications for scholars, law enforcement, policymakers, and the general public.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. There is scholarly debate over whether this “rise” is a mediated construction or an empirical reality, but its cultural, social, and political impact is the same nonetheless (Blair & Schweit, 2014; Lott, 2015; Silva & Greene-Colozzi, 2019a).

  2. The current study uses the term “completed mass shooting” in reference to attacks that coincide with standard “active shooter” and “mass public shooting” definitions (see Blair & Schweit, 2014; Freilich, Chermak, & Klein, 2020; Silva & Capellan, 2019a). However, unlike some “active” and “public” definitions, the usage of “completed” refers to attacks with a four-death count threshold (see Krouse & Richardson, 2015; Peterson & Densley, 2019). Additionally, this work uses the terms “foiled” versus “completed” mass shootings instead of the phrasing often used in terrorist studies measuring “success” (see Klein, et al., 2017; Mandala & Freilich, 2018). The purpose of this alternative phrasing is to avoid glorifying perpetrators as being “successful”.

  3. See Capellan and Gomez (2018) for a comprehensive list of other publicly available mass shooting datasets reviewed for this study.

  4. See the Independent Variables sub-section for the in-depth fame-seeking and ideological definitions used in this study.

  5. For example, Klein et al. (2017) characterize failed incidents as involving a perpetrator firing at his target and missing or a police officer tackling the gunman before shooting.

  6. The inclusion of Appendix Table 4 provides a valuable framework for future scholarship, and the Author hopes that other researchers will continue to grow this important area of inquiry.

  7. This study measures variables at the incident level, not the perpetrator level. As such, measurements of dyad incidents consider if one of the two perpetrators had any of the aforementioned perpetrator variable characteristics. For instance, if there was one female and one male, than the variable was coded as female. The age of dyad perpetrators was also averaged between the two perpetrators. This was done so that perpetrator variables could be included in the full multivariate model. This approach did not skew variables, because in the majority of instances, both perpetrators in a single incident were coded the same (i.e., both were fame-seeking, both had a criminal history, etc.). As such, this approach was determined to be the most effective strategy for identifying differences in characteristics in multiple models (see Lankford & Silver, 2020).

  8. Fourteen students in the sample were over the age of 18.

  9. Specifically, fame-seekers include those making direct statements about becoming famous, seeking media notoriety via submitted legacy tokens, posting on media platforms right before/during the incident to capitalize on the interest they plan to receive after the attack, and mentioning role models with a history of violence including famous fictional figures or actual mass murderers/shooters (Lankford, 2016; Silva & Greene-Colozzi, 2019b).

References

  • Agnich, L. E. (2015). A comparative analysis of attempted and completed school-based mass murder attacks. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 40(1), 1–22.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blair, J. P., & Schweit, K. W. (2014). A study of active shooter incidents in the United States between 2000 and 2013. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice, Federal Bureau of Investigation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blau, B. M., Gorry, D. H., & Wade, C. (2016). Guns, laws and public shootings in the United States. Applied Economics, 48(49), 4732–4746.

    Google Scholar 

  • Capellan, J. A. (2015). Lone wolf terrorist or deranged shooter? A study of ideological active shooter events in the United States, 1970–2014. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 38(6), 395–413.

    Google Scholar 

  • Capellan, J. A., & Gomez, S. P. (2018). Change and stability in offender, behaviors, and incident-level characteristics of mass public shootings in the United States, 1984–2015. Journal of Investigative Psychology of Offender Profiles, 15(1), 51–72.

    Google Scholar 

  • Capellan, J. A., & Jiao, A. Y. (2019). Deconstructing mass public shootings: Exploring opportunities for intervention. New York: Rockefeller Institute of Government.

    Google Scholar 

  • Capellan, J. A., & Silva, J. R. (2019). An investigation of mass public shooting attacks against government targets in the United States. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 1–23.

  • Dahl, E. J. (2011). The plots that failed: Intelligence lessons learned from unsuccessful terrorist attacks against the United States. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, 34(8), 621–648.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daniels, J. A. (2019). A preliminary report on the police foundation’s averted school violence database. Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daniels, J. A., Buck, I., Croxall, S., Gruber, J., Kime, P., & Govert, H. (2007). A content analysis of news reports of averted school rampages. Journal of School Violence, 6(1), 83–99.

    Google Scholar 

  • Daniels, J. A., Volungis, A., Pshenishny, E., Gandhi, P., Winkler, A., Cramer, D. P., & Bradley, M. C. (2010). A qualitative investigation of averted school shooting rampages. The Counseling Psychologist, 38(1), 69–95.

    Google Scholar 

  • Drysdale, D. A. (2010). Campus attacks: Targeted violence affecting institutions of higher education. Collingdale, PA: DIANE Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duwe, G. (2007). Mass murder in the United States: A history. Jefferson, NC: McFarland & Company.

    Google Scholar 

  • Duwe, G. (2020). Patterns and prevalence of lethal mass violence. Criminology & Public Policy, 19(1), 1–19.

  • Duwe, G., Kovandzic, T., & Moody, C. E. (2002). The impact of right-to-carry concealed firearm laws on mass public shootings. Homicide Studies, 6(4), 271–296.

    Google Scholar 

  • Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2016). Active shooter incidents in the United States in 2014 and 2015. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice.

    Google Scholar 

  • Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2018). Active shooter incidents in the United States in 2016 and 2017. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice.

    Google Scholar 

  • Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2019). Active shooter incidents in the United States in 2018. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice.

    Google Scholar 

  • Follman, M., Aronsen, G., & Pan, D. (2019). US mass shootings, 1982–2019: Data from Mother Jones’ investigation. Retrieved from https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2012/12/mass-shootings-mother-jones-full-data/

  • Freilich, J. D., Chermak, S. M., Belli, R., Gruenewald, J., & Parkin, W. S. (2014). Introducing the United States extremist crime database (ECDB). Terrorism and Political Violence, 26, 372–384.

    Google Scholar 

  • Freilich, J. D., Chermak, S. M., & Klein, B. R. (2020). Investigating the applicability of situational crime prevention to the public mass violence context. Criminology & Public Policy, 19(1), 271–293.

  • Gill, P., Horgan, J., & Deckert, P. (2014). Bombing alone: Tracing the motivations and antecedent behaviors of lone-actor terrorists. Journal of Forensic Sciences, 59(2), 425–435.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hamm, M. S., & Spaaij, R. (2017). Age of lone wolf terrorism. New York: Columbia University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Heilbrun, K., Dvoskin, J., & Heilbrun, A. (2009). Toward preventing future tragedies: Mass killings on college campuses, public health, and threat/risk assessment. Psychological Injury and Law, 2(2), 93–99.

    Google Scholar 

  • Jarvis, J., & Amber, S. J. (2015). Mass victimization: Promising avenues for prevention. Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation.

    Google Scholar 

  • Kelly, R. (2012). Active shooter: Recommendations and analysis for risk mitigation – 2012 edition. New York: New York City Police Department.

    Google Scholar 

  • Klein, B. R., Gruenewald, J., & Smith, B. L. (2017). Opportunity, group structure, temporal patterns, and successful outcomes of far-right terrorism incidents in the United States. Crime & Delinquency, 63(10), 1224–1249.

    Google Scholar 

  • Krouse, W. J., & Richardson, D. J. (2015). Mass murder with firearms: Incidents and victims, 1999–2013. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.

    Google Scholar 

  • Langman, P. (2018). Different types of role model influence and fame seeking among mass killers and copycat offenders. American Behavioral Scientist, 62(2), 210–228.

    Google Scholar 

  • Langman, P., & Straub, F. (2019). A comparison of averted and completed school attacks from the police foundation averted school violence database. Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented Policing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lankford, A. (2015). Mass shooters in the USA, 1966–2010: Differences between attackers who live and die. Justice Quarterly, 32(2), 360–379.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lankford, A. (2016). Fame-seeking rampage shooters: Initial findings and empirical predictions. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 27(2), 122–129.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lankford, A. (2018). Identifying potential mass shooters and suicide terrorists with warning signs of suicide, perceived victimization, and desires for attention or fame. Journal of Personality Assessment, 100(5), 471–482.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lankford, A., & Silver, J. (2020). Why have public mass shootings become more deadly? Criminology & Public Policy, 19(1), 37–60.

  • Lankford, A., Adkins, K. G., & Madfis, E. (2019). Are the deadliest mass shootings preventable? An assessment of leakage, information reported to law enforcement, and firearms acquisition prior to attacks in the United States. Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 35(5), 315–341.

  • Laqueur, H., & Wintemute, G. J. (2020). Identifying high-risk firearm owners to prevent mass violence. Criminology & Public Policy, 19(1), 109–127.

  • Larkin, R. W. (2009). The Columbine legacy: Rampage shootings as political acts. American Behavioral Scientist, 52(9), 1309–1326.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lombard, M., Snyder-Duch, J., & Bracken, C. C. (2002). Content analysis in mass communication: Assessment and reporting of intercoder reliability. Human Communication Research, 28(4), 587–604.

    Google Scholar 

  • Lott, J. (2015). The FBI’s misinterpretation of the change in mass public shooting. Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences, 40(2), 18–29.

    Google Scholar 

  • Madfis, E. (2014). Averting school rampage: Student intervention amid a persistent code of silence. Youth Violence and Juvenile Justice, 12(3), 229–249.

    Google Scholar 

  • Madfis, E. (2020). How to stop school rampage killing: Lessons from averted mass shootings and bombings. London: Palgrave Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mandala, M., & Freilich, J. D. (2018). Disrupting terrorist assassinations through situational crime prevention. Crime & Delinquency, 64(12), 1515–1537.

    Google Scholar 

  • Mass Shooting Tracker. (2019). U.S. mass shootings. Retrieved from www.massshootingtracker.org

  • Meloy, J. R., & O’Toole, M. E. (2011). The concept of leakage in threat assessment. Behavioral Sciences & the Law, 29(4), 513–527.

    Google Scholar 

  • Neuendorf, K. A. (2002). The content analysis guidebook. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Neill, J. P., Miller, J. J., & Waters, J. R. (2016). Active shooter: Recommendations and analysis for risk mitigation. New York: New York City Police Department.

    Google Scholar 

  • O’Toole, M. E. (2000). The school shooter: A threat assessment perspective. Quantico, VA: Critical Incident Response Group, National Center for the Analysis of Violent Crime, FBI Academy.

    Google Scholar 

  • Osborne, J. R., & Capellan, J. A. (2017). Examining active shooter events through the rational choice perspective and crime script analysis. Security Journal, 30(3), 880–902.

    Google Scholar 

  • Paparazzo, J., Eith, C., & Tocco, J. (2013). Strategic approaches to preventing multiple casualty violence. Washington, DC: US Department of Justice.

    Google Scholar 

  • Parkin, W. S., & Freilich, J. D. (2015). Routine activities and right-wing extremists: An empirical comparison of the victims of ideologically-and non-ideologically-motivated homicides committed by American far-rightists. Terrorism and Political Violence, 27(1), 182–203.

    Google Scholar 

  • Peterson, J. K., & Densley, J. A. (2019). The violence project database of mass shootings in the United States, 1966–2019. Saint Paul, MN: The Violence Project.

    Google Scholar 

  • Reeping, P. M., Jacoby, S., Rajan, S., & Branas, C. C. (2020). Rapid response to mass shootings: A review and recommendations. Criminology & Public Policy, 19(1), 295–315.

  • Sarteschi, C. M. (2016). An examination of thwarted mass homicide plots and threateners. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 30(5), 88–93.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schildkraut, J. (2018). Mass shootings in America: Understanding the debates, causes, and responses. Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-CLIO.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schildkraut, J., & Elsass, H. J. (2016). Mass shootings: Media, myths, and realities: Media, myths, and realities. Santa Barbra, CA: Praeger.

    Google Scholar 

  • Schildkraut, J., & Hernandez, T. C. (2014). Laws that bit the bullet: A review of legislative responses to school shootings. American Journal of Criminal Justice, 39(2), 358–374.

    Google Scholar 

  • Silva, J. R. (2019). Mass shooting films: Myths, academic knowledge, and popular criminology. Victims and Offenders, 14(2), 239–264.

    Google Scholar 

  • Silva, J. R., & Capellan, J. A. (2019a). A comparative analysis of media coverage of mass public shootings: Examining rampage, disgruntled employee, school, & lone-wolf terrorist shootings in the United States. Criminal Justice Policy Review, 30(9), 1312–1341.

    Google Scholar 

  • Silva, J. R., & Capellan, J. A. (2019b). The media’s coverage of mass public shootings in America: Fifty years of newsworthiness. International Journal of Comparative and Applied Criminal Justice, 43(1), 77–97.

    Google Scholar 

  • Silva, J. R., & Greene-Colozzi, E. A. (2019a). Deconstructing an epidemic: Determining the frequency of mass gun violence. In S. E. Daly (Ed.), Assessing and averting the prevalence of mass violence (pp. 39–67). IGI Global: Hershey, PA.

  • Silva, J. R., & Greene-Colozzi, E. (2019b). Fame-seeking mass shooters in America: Severity, characteristics, and media coverage. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 48(5), 24–35.

    Google Scholar 

  • Silva, J. R., Duran, C., Freilich, J. D., Chermak, S. M. (2019). Addressing the myths of terrorism in America. International Criminal Justice Review. 1–23.

  • Silver, J., Horgan, J., & Gill, P. (2018a). Foreshadowing targeted violence: Assessing leakage of intent by public mass murderers. Aggression and Violent Behavior, 38(1), 94–100.

    Google Scholar 

  • Silver, J., Simons, A., & Craun, S. (2018b). A Study of the pre-attack behaviors of active shooters in the United States between 2000–2013. Washington, DC: Federal Bureau of Investigation, U.S. Department of Justice.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stallings, R., & Hall, J. C. (2019). Averted targeted school killings from 1900–2016. Criminal Justice Studies, 1–17.

  • Stanford Mass Shootings of America. (2017). Mass shootings in America. Stanford, CA: Stanford Geospatial Center, Stanford Libraries.

    Google Scholar 

  • Vossekuil, B. (2004). The final report and findings of the safe school initiative: Implications for the prevention of school attacks in the United States. Collingdale, PA: Diane Publishing.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, T. (2019). What are ‘red flag’ gun laws, and how do they work? New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/06/us/red-flag-laws.html

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice, William Paterson University, 300 Pompton Road, Wayne, NJ, 07470, USA

    Jason R. Silva

Authors
  1. Jason R. Silva
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jason R. Silva.

Additional information

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Appendix

Appendix

Table 4 Foiled mass shooting data sources
Full size table

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Silva, J.R. A Comparative Analysis of Foiled and Completed Mass Shootings. Am J Crim Just 46, 187–208 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-020-09552-2

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12103-020-09552-2

Keywords

Search

Navigation