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Role of the eastern subtropical North Pacific Ocean on the El Niño’s transition processes

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Abstract

We examine the transition processes of El Niño occurring in 1 year after using observations, a multi-century model simulation and atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments. One type is characterized by a quick transition from an El Niño event into a La Niña event in the following winter, and the other type involves a slow decay to an almost neutral state or a continuous El Niño event. While both the Indian and the Atlantic Oceans contribute to the El Niño’s transition processes, we further find that sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the eastern subtropical North Pacific and the associated surface wind anomalies play important roles in determining the different types of El Niño’s transition processes through atmosphere–ocean coupled processes. In particular, northeasterly wind anomalies in the central subtropical North Pacific during the early spring, which is in consequence of atmosphere–ocean coupled processes, contribute to decreasing ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies and strengthening easterly wind anomalies in the central tropical Pacific. These anomalies lead up to a transition into a La Niña event in the following winter. On the contrary, weakening of the northeasterly wind and warm SST anomalies in the eastern subtropical North Pacific during the early spring are conducive to a neutral state or a continuous El Niño event in the subsequent winter. Similar transition processes are also found in a multi-century model simulation. By conducting idealized AGCM experiments, we also show that the anomalous SST in the eastern subtropical North Pacific during El Niño peak season may induce surface wind anomalies in the central tropical Pacific during El Niño onset season. These results provide potential precursors for predicting the occurrence of a La Niña event, a neutral state and an El Niño event 1 year after the occurrence of an El Niño event.

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Acknowledgements

We appreciate to two anonymous reviewers who gave constructive comments. We also thank the National Center for Atmospheric Research for producing and making available the results from the CESM1 CAM5 BGC Large Ensemble pre-industrial run https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/dataset/ucar.cgd.ccsm4.CESM_CAM5_BGC_LE.html We acknowledge using the SST data obtained from the Extended Reconstruction SST version 5 (ERSSTv5) https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.noaa.ersst.v5.html. The monthly SLP and wind stress data are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) Reanalysis 1 https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.derived.html. The oceanic potential temperature can also be obtained from the NCEP Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.godas.html. This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2018-03211.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Marine Sciences and Convergent Technology, Hanyang University, ERICA, Ansan, South Korea

    Sang-Wook Yeh & Seung-Hwon Hyun

  2. Department of Oceanography, Chonnam National University, Gwangju, South Korea

    Hyun-Su Jo & Yoo-Geun Ham

  3. Operational Systems Development Department, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Jeju, South Korea

    Seung-Hwon Hyun

  4. Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, 26603, China

    Wenju Cai

  5. Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, 7004, Australia

    Wenju Cai

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  1. Sang-Wook Yeh
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Yeh, SW., Jo, HS., Hyun, SH. et al. Role of the eastern subtropical North Pacific Ocean on the El Niño’s transition processes. Clim Dyn 56, 1285–1301 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05530-w

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