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A constrained-memory stress release model (CM-SRM) for the earthquake occurrence in the Corinth Gulf (Greece)

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Abstract

The complexity of seismogenesis requires the development of stochastic models, the application of which aims to improve our understanding on the seismic process and the associated underlying mechanisms. Seismogenesis in the Corinth Gulf (Greece) is modeled through a Constrained-Memory Stress Release Model (CM-SRM), which combines the gradual increase of the strain energy due to continuous slow tectonic strain loading and its sudden release during an earthquake occurrence. The data are treated as a point process, which is uniquely defined by the associated conditional intensity function. In the original form of the Simple Stress Release Model (SSRM), the conditional intensity function depends on the entire history of the process. In an attempt to identify the most appropriate parameterization that better fits the data and describes the earthquake generation process, we introduce a constrained “\(m\)-memory” point process, implying that only the \(m\) most recent arrival times are taken into account in the conditional intensity function, for some suitable \(m \in N\). Modeling of this process is performed for moderate earthquakes (M ≥ 5.2) occurring in the Corinth Gulf since 1911, by considering in each investigation different number of steps backward in time. The derived model versions are compared with the SSRM in its original form and evaluated in terms of information criteria and residual analysis.

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Acknowledgements

The constructive comments of two reviewers are acknowledged for their contribution to the improvement of the paper. Gratitude is also extended to Dr Manly for his editorial assistance. This research is co-financed by Greece and the European Union (European Social Fund- ESF) through the Operational Programme «Human Resources Development, Education and Lifelong Learning» in the context of the project “Strengthening Human Resources Research Potential via Doctorate Research” (MIS-5000432), implemented by the State Scholarships Foundation (ΙΚΥ). The maps are generated using the Generic Mapping Tool (http://www.soest. hawaii.edu/gmt; Wessel et al. 2013). Geophysics Department Contribution 940.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geophysics Department, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, 54124, Thessaloníki, Greece

    Ourania Mangira & Eleftheria Papadimitriou

  2. Department of Informatics, University of Western Macedonia, 52100, Kastoria, Greece

    Georgios Vasiliadis

  3. Statistics and Operational Research Department, School of Mathematics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, GR54124, Thessaloníki, Greece

    George Tsaklidis

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  1. Ourania Mangira
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  2. Georgios Vasiliadis
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  4. Eleftheria Papadimitriou
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Correspondence to Ourania Mangira.

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Handling Editor: Bryan F. J. Manly.

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Mangira, O., Vasiliadis, G., Tsaklidis, G. et al. A constrained-memory stress release model (CM-SRM) for the earthquake occurrence in the Corinth Gulf (Greece). Environ Ecol Stat 28, 135–151 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10651-020-00478-w

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