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Does it pay to ‘Be Like Mike’? Aspiratonal peer firms and relative performance evaluation

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Abstract

We examine the manner and extent to which firms evaluate performance relative to aspirational peer firms. Guided by the predictions of an agency model, we find that CEO compensation increases in the correlation between own and aspirational peer firm performances. In addition, we define and test conditions where aggregate peer performance, which has been the primary focus of prior relative performance evaluation studies of competitive peers, is expected to have an association with CEO compensation. These conditions are supported by our empirical results. Finally, we document that our results are more pronounced when the firm-peer relationship is one-way and the peer firm is in a different industry and therefore is more aspirational.

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Notes

  1. Key empirical papers on the relation between CEO compensation and aggregate performance of a competitive peer group are Antle and Smith (1986), Jensen and Murphy (1990), Barro and Barro (1990) Aggarwal and Samwick (1999b), Garvey and Milbourn (2003), and Albuquerque (2009), among others.

  2. The lack of strong empirical support for the predictions from standard RPE theory has long troubled researchers, and recent studies continue to cast doubt on the framework’s sufficiency. For example, Jenter and Kanaan (2015) provide evidence that firms do not filter out common shocks when making firing decisions. In addition, Ma et al. (2017) provide empirical evidence inconsistent with firms optimally selecting peers solely on the exogenous covariance, which is predicted by standard RPE theory. They suggest that firms’ seemingly suboptimal choices result from boards not “getting it right.” However, the results of our study suggest that boards may still get it right, while the standard RPE model with competitive peers is not sufficient to capture the multi-dimensional nature of RPE.

  3. The phrase “Be Like Mike” in the title of our study refers to a Gatorade commercial that originally aired in 1992 and again in 2015. In the commercial, footage of Michael Jordan playing basketball, juxtaposed with video of young kids imitating his moves, was used as a backdrop to the lyrics of a song: “Sometimes I dream that he is me. / You’ve got to see that’s how I dream to be. / I dream I move, I dream I groove. / Like Mike. If I could be like Mike.” The commercial embodies the spirit of our study and the results that we document.

  4. To focus on the key assumptions and resulting empirical predictions of our model, we relegate some discussion and detailed derivations to Appendix A of this paper or refer the reader to Hemmer (2017) wherever appropriate.

  5. A drawback of relying on the simple binomial version of Hemmer (2017) to provide intuition here is that \(p_{\tau }{<}\frac {1}{1+a}\) is required for peers being aspirational as here defined. This is, however, entirely a feature of the discrete binomial version of the model and does not carry over to the continuous Brownian version, from which the actual predictions are derived, obtained in the limit when the length of subperiods approach zero.

  6. This is a fundamental divergence from the opposite assumption underlying the RPE literature. For a firm’s exposure to a common shock to be independent of an agent’s operational choices, the model structure has to be one of “effort-plus-noise” as, for example, in the standard LEN representation that much of the RPE literature relies on. Unfortunately, “effort-plus-noise” models do not lend themselves to the analysis of optimal contracts. (See the introduction of Jewitt (1988) for an excellent discussion of why.) Rather, the LEN RPE contract is the “best” contract available among the class of contracts that are linear in aggregate own and peer performance, and the key “common-shock filtering” result obtained from the LEN model results from restricting the analysis to focus on this exogenously specified, non-optimal contractual form. In fact, without the exogenous restriction to linear contracts, the so-called Mirrlees non-existence result applies, and all firms can attain approximate first-best solutions without the use of RPE. By contrast, the results we are testing in this paper are obtained as properties of optimal RPE contracts derived in an economic environment where optimal RPE contracts actually exist.

  7. While the simple binomial structure we rely on is too restrictive to allow for the sign of γp to differ across peers, it is straightforward to generate parameter values in which the magnitude of γp is quite different from the perspective of the focal versus the peer firm. Moreover, in the full Brownian model from Hemmer (2017) that emerges as the limiting case of the discrete multinomial models, γp can differ across peers in both sign and magnitude for appropriately selected parameter values.

  8. Because there can be multiple such equilibria, we cannot speak to what the agents’ actions look like in equilibrium, nor is this the focus of our study. Rather, we focus on identifying the equilibrium use of peer performance in the contracts that implement a given set of equilibrium actions.

  9. This is significant because the empirical RPE literature that relies on the restriction that the exposure to economy-wide shocks is independent of the operational decisions firms make has largely been unable to establish βπ being different from zero. Hemmer (2017) demonstrates that, when the exposure to the common risk is not independent of managerial decisions (as it cannot be in this setting for the reason discussed above), it is not optimal to simply filter out the common component in the optimal RPE contract.

  10. Many of the components of total compensation are awarded based on contemporaneous performance, and these components conform most closely to the constructs in our model. If long-term incentive payouts depend on actions taken in prior years, this component introduces noise to our measure of total compensation because actions only affect contemporaneous firm performance (based on the structure of our model). However, such timing-driven measurement error in our total compensation proxy should only affect the dependent variable, rather than the independent variables, and therefore should not bias our coefficient estimates.

  11. For example, consider the manager of a passive market index fund that is focused on tracking the underlying market index. He or she is provided incentives to take actions (e.g., periodically rebalancing the portfolio to accommodate changes in the index) that increase the correlation of the fund’s performance with that of the market index, which primarily represents the systematic component. By contrast, a hedge fund manager may focus on emulating an aspirational peer fund manager in an effort to increase abnormal, risk-adjusted return performance, which primarily represents an idiosyncratic component. Thus the informativeness of distinguishing between these two return components crucially hinges on the ability to identify the specific nature of the strategies of the aspirational peer that the firms is attempting to emulate. While interesting, it is outside the scope of our study, so again we leave it for future research.

  12. All test statistics are based on standard errors clustered by firm.

  13. Similar results are obtained for all specifications using value-weighted peer performance measures instead of equal-weighted measures. Specifically, Tables 3 and 4 are replicated using value-weighted performance measures. Results are reported in Tables OA.1 and OA.2, respectively, of the online appendix.

  14. As discussed in Section 2.2, a two-way relation would arise in the framework of Hemmer (2017) if, for example, firms find it optimal to adopt each others’ best practices or learn from each others’ successes. In addition, a one-way relation could arise if the focal firm benefits from imitating the peer’s technology or business model, whereas either (i) the peer is indifferent between imitating or differentiating from the focal firm, or (ii) the peer prefers to innovate to distinguish itself from the focal firm but declines to specify non-aspirational peers for the reasons discussed in Section 2.2. By contrast, traditional RPE models preclude one-way relations by prescribing that firms treat each other symmetrically based on the sign of their covariance when filtering common shocks from compensation.

  15. Representative RPE studies based on industry peer groups include those by Antle and Smith (1986), Gibbons and Murphy (1990), Jensen and Murphy (1990), Barro and Barro (1990), Janakiraman et al. (1992), Aggarwal and Samwick (1999a, b), Garvey and Milbourn (2006), Rajgopal et al. (2006), and Albuquerque (2009; 2014).

  16. The variable perfcorrjt,k is defined as the performance correlation between firm j and its peer firm k in fiscal year t. We scale by the total number of j’s peer firms in t (Njt) to increase comparability across firm-year observations.

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Correspondence to Ryan T. Ball.

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We appreciate helpful comments from Ana Albuquerque, Georgii Aleksandrov, Rick Antle, Robert Bushman, Shirley Daniel, Paul Fischer (editor), Lindsey Gallo, Eric Ghysels, Mirko Heinle, Raffi Indjejikian, Evelyn Intan, Eva Labro, Robin Litjens, Heidi Packard, Mark Penno, Darren Roulstone, Abbie Smith, an anonymous reviewer, and seminar participants at the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Goethe University Frankfurt, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Michigan State University, Rice University, The Ohio State University, University of Alabama, University of California at Berkeley, University of Chicago, University of Hawaii, University of Iowa, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, University of Toronto, the 2018 FARS Midyear Meeting, and the 2018 Kapnick Spring Conference at the University of Michigan.

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Appendices

Appendix A: Theoretical foundations and derivations

The analysis of the multi-agent problem in this paper fundamentally follows the approach of Holmström and Milgrom (1987, Sections 2 and 3) augmented to allow for multiple agents using the standard Nash-approach of Holmström (1982). In the single-agent analysis in Holmström and Milgrom (1987), the agent has full control over all distributional properties of all available performance measures. The key implication of the agent’s extensive control is that the principal’s options are limited to a single, unique contract for any set of actions he or she can incentivize (their Theorem 3). This simplifies their analysis greatly because once the principal decides on a set of actions to implement, there is only one contract that will do the job, so the principal does not have to find the optimal contract from among an otherwise large set of incentive compatible contracts.

This simplifying uniqueness feature of Holmström and Milgrom (1987) does not, however, obtain in the multi-agent RPE setting of Hemmer (2017). The simple reason for this is that the addition of agents that control only their own performance measures “weakens” each agent’s span of control relative to the single-agent case in Holmström and Milgrom (1987). This, in turn, strengthens the principal by giving him more contracting options to choose from for implementing a given set of actions. As a result, the optimal RPE contract must be found through standard optimization techniques. This is important because that reintroduces the likelihood ratios absent in the single-agent setting of Holmström and Milgrom (1987) as the key determinants of the properties of the optimal RPE contract. This also makes clear that producing predictions for the multi-agent RPE case by extrapolating from the single-agent, multiple performance measure setting is not as straightforward as it may seem. Indeed, as shown by Hemmer (2017), the optimal RPE contract obtained from the multi-agent case differs fundamentally from the unique multi-measure contract obtained from analyzing the single agent case.

Importantly, however, while the uniqueness result of Holmström and Milgrom (1987) does not carry over to the multi-agent RPE setting, their key stationarity results do. Specifically, for the multi-period version of the model, an optimal solution for the principal is to implement the same set of actions using the same reward structure in every subperiod (their Theorem 4). Moreover, the optimal contract can be written on measures of aggregate performance rather than on the entire history of the performance evolution (their Theorem 5). It turns out that the optimal dynamic RPE contract can also be obtained by solving for the optimal stationary RPE contract in any one subperiod and letting the number of subperiods grow large, just as in the single agent case.

Following this strategy, we provide a detailed derivation of the main results underlying our empirical predictions by applying the above-mentioned stationarity and aggregation results. For further details we refer the diligent reader to Hemmer (2017).

Define

$$ \begin{array}{@{}rcl@{}} \begin{array}{llll} \beta_{\Omega} &\equiv& \frac{m(s_{\theta}^{++}-s_{\theta}^{--}+s_{\theta}^{+-}-s_{\theta}^{-+})}{2}, \\\\ \beta_{\rho} &\equiv& \frac{m(s_{\theta}^{++}+s_{\theta}^{--}-s_{\theta}^{+-}-s_{\theta}^{-+})}{4}, \\\\ \beta_{\Pi} &\equiv& \frac{m(s_{\theta}^{++}-s_{\theta}^{--}-s_{\theta}^{+-}+s_{\theta}^{-+})}{2}, \\\\ \beta_{0} &\equiv& ms^{--}-\beta_{\rho}. \end{array} ~~~~~~~~~ \begin{array}{rllll} {\Omega} &\equiv& A^{++}+A^{+-}, \\\\ \rho &\equiv& A^{++}+A^{--}-A^{+-}-A^{-+}, \\\\ {\Pi} &\equiv& A^{++}+A^{-+}, \\\\ ~ &~& \end{array} \end{array} $$

Noting that A++ + A+− + A−+ + A−− = 1, straightforward algebra reconciles Eq. 7 to Eq. 6:

$$ \begin{array}{@{}rcl@{}} \begin{array}{rll} \beta_{0}+\beta_{\Omega}{\Omega} +\beta_{\Pi}{\Pi} +\beta_{\rho}\rho &=& ms_{\theta}^{--} -m\frac{s_{\theta}^{++}+s_{\theta}^{--}-s_{\theta}^{+-}-s_{\theta}^{-+}}{4} \\&& +m\frac{s_{\theta}^{++}-s_{\theta}^{--}+s_{\theta}^{+-}-s_{\theta}^{-+}}{2}(A^{++}+A^{+-}) \\&& +m\frac{s_{\theta}^{++}-s_{\theta}^{--}-s_{\theta}^{+-}+s_{\theta}^{-+}}{2}(A^{++}+A^{-+}) \\&& +m\frac{s_{\theta}^{++}+s_{\theta}^{--}-s_{\theta}^{+-}-s_{\theta}^{-+}}{4}(A^{++}+A^{--}-A^{+-}-A^{-+}) \\\\ &=& m(A^{++}s_{\theta}^{++}+A^{+-}s_{\theta}^{+-}+A^{-+}s_{\theta}^{-+}+A^{--}s_{\theta}^{--}). \end{array} \end{array} $$

Expanding the expectations in Eq. 5 and utilizing the agent’s negative exponential utility function, the principal’s contract design problem for each subperiod can be written

$$ \begin{array}{@{}rcl@{}} &&\min_{s_{\theta}^{ij}} \quad p^{*}a\gamma s_{\theta}^{++} +p^{*}(1-a\gamma )s_{\theta}^{+-} +(1-p^{*})\gamma s_{\theta}^{--} +(1-p^{*})(1-\gamma )s_{\theta}^{-+} \\\\ &&\text{s.t.} \quad p^{*}a\gamma u(s_{\theta}^{++})+p^{*}(1-a\gamma )u(s_{\theta}^{+-})+(1-p^{*})\gamma u(s_{\theta}^{--})+(1-p^{*})(1-\gamma )u(s_{\theta}^{-+}) \\ &&\qquad\geq u(\theta w+\theta c(p^{*})) \\\\ && \qquad\theta c^{\prime}(p^{*}) \left( p^{*}a\gamma u(s_{\theta}^{++})+p^{*}(1-a\gamma )u(s_{\theta}^{+-}) +(1-p^{*})\gamma u(s_{\theta}^{--})+(1-p^{*})(1-\gamma )u(s_{\theta}^{-+})\right) \\&& +\left.\left( \frac{dpa\gamma }{dp}u(s_{\theta}^{++}) +\frac{dp(1-a\gamma )}{dp}u(s_{\theta}^{+-}) +\frac{d(1-p)\gamma }{dp}u(s_{\theta}^{--}) +\frac{d(1-p)(1-\gamma )}{dp}u(s_{\theta}^{-+})\right)\right|_{p=p^{*}} =0. \end{array} $$

Let λ𝜃 and μ𝜃 denote the Lagrange multipliers on the individual rationality and incentive compatibility constraints. Then the first order conditions with respect to \(s_{\theta }^{ij}\) are given by

$$ \begin{array}{@{}rcl@{}} \frac{\partial\mathcal{L}}{\partial s_{\theta}^{++}} &=& 0 = -p^{*}a\gamma +\lambda_{\theta}p^{*}a\gamma u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{++}) \\&& +\mu_{\theta}\left[\theta c^{\prime}(p^{*})p^{*}a\gamma u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{++}) +\left.\frac{dpa\gamma }{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{++}) \right]\\ \frac{\partial\mathcal{L}}{\partial s_{\theta}^{+-}} &=& 0 = -p^{*}(1-a\gamma ) +\lambda_{\theta}p^{*}(1-a\gamma )u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{+-}) \\&& +\mu_{\theta}\left[\theta c^{\prime}(p^{*})p^{*}(1-a\gamma )u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{+-}) +\left.\frac{dp(1-a\gamma )}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{+-}) \right] \end{array} $$
$$ \begin{array}{@{}rcl@{}} \frac{\partial\mathcal{L}}{\partial s_{\theta}^{--}} &=& 0 = -(1-p^{*})\gamma +\lambda_{\theta}(1-p^{*})\gamma u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{--}) \\&& +\mu_{\theta}\left[\theta c^{\prime}(p^{*})(1-p^{*})\gamma u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{--}) +\left.\frac{d(1-p)\gamma }{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{--}) \right] \\ \frac{\partial\mathcal{L}}{\partial s_{\theta}^{-+}} &=& 0 = -(1-p^{*})(1-\gamma ) +\lambda_{\theta}(1-p^{*})(1-\gamma )u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{-+}) \\&& +\mu_{\theta}\left[\theta c^{\prime}(p^{*})(1-p^{*})(1-\gamma )u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{-+}) +\left.\frac{d(1-p)(1-\gamma )}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}u^{\prime}(s_{\theta}^{-+}) \right]. \end{array} $$

Substituting \(u^{\prime }(s)=-u(s)\) and dividing through by \(\Pr (\omega ^{i},\pi ^{j})\) yields:

$$ \begin{array}{@{}rcl@{}} \begin{array}{lllll} \frac{1}{-u(s_{\theta}^{++})} &=& \lambda_{\theta} + \mu_{\theta}\left( \theta c^{\prime}(p^{*})+\frac{\left.\frac{dpa\gamma }{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{p^{*}a\gamma }\right) &\equiv& \lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{++} \\\\ \frac{1}{-u(s_{\theta}^{+-})} &=& \lambda_{\theta} + \mu_{\theta}\left( \theta c^{\prime}(p^{*})+\frac{\left.\frac{dp(1-a\gamma )}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{p^{*}(1-a\gamma )}\right) &\equiv& \lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{+-} \\\\ \frac{1}{-u(s_{\theta}^{--})} &=& \lambda_{\theta} + \mu_{\theta}\left( \theta c^{\prime}(p^{*})+\frac{\left.\frac{d(1-p)\gamma }{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{(1-p^{*})\gamma }\right) &\equiv& \lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{--} \\\\ \frac{1}{-u(s_{\theta}^{-+})} &=& \lambda_{\theta} + \mu_{\theta}\left( \theta c^{\prime}(p^{*})+\frac{\left.\frac{d(1-p)(1-\gamma )}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{(1-p^{*})(1-\gamma )}\right) &\equiv& \lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{-+}. \end{array} \end{array} $$

Using properties of the negative exponential utility function and performing a first-order Taylor series expansion allows each wage differential to be expressed as follows.

$$ \begin{array}{@{}rcl@{}} \begin{array}{lll} s_{\theta}^{ij}-s_{\theta}^{--} &=& \ln\left( \lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{ij}\right) -\ln\left( \lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{--}\right) \\\\ &=& \ln\left( 1+\frac{\mu_{\theta}(L^{ij}-L^{--})}{\lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{--}}\right) \\\\ &\approx& \left( \ln(1)+\frac{1/1}{1!}\left( 1+\frac{\mu_{\theta}(L^{ij}-L^{--})}{\lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{--}}-1\right)\right) \\\\ &=& \frac{\mu_{\theta}(L^{ij}-L^{--})}{\lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{--}}. \end{array} \end{array} $$

Hemmer (2017) shows that the wage differentials converge to this Taylor series approximation as \(m\to \infty \). Making this substitution into the coefficients in Eq. 7 yields

$$ \begin{array}{@{}rcl@{}} \begin{array}{lllll} \beta_{\Omega} &=& \frac{m\mu_{\theta}}{2(\lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{--})} (L^{++}-L^{--}+L^{+-}-L^{-+}) \\\\ \beta_{\rho} &=& \frac{m\mu_{\theta}}{2(\lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{--})} (L^{++}+L^{--}-L^{+-}-L^{-+}) \\\\ \beta_{\Pi} &=& \frac{m\mu_{\theta}}{2(\lambda_{\theta}+\mu_{\theta}L^{--})} (L^{++}-L^{--}-L^{+-}+L^{-+}). \end{array} \end{array} $$

Finally, substituting the above definitions of the likelihood ratios Lij into these coefficients yields Eq. 8:

$$ \begin{array}{@{}rcl@{}} \begin{array}{llll} L^{++}-L^{--}+L^{+-}-L^{-+} &=& \frac{\left.\frac{dpa\gamma}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{p^{*}a\gamma} -\frac{\left.\frac{d(1-p)\gamma}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{(1-p^{*})\gamma} +\frac{\left.\frac{dp(1-a\gamma)}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{p^{*}(1-a\gamma)} -\frac{\left.\frac{d(1-p)(1-\gamma)}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{(1-p^{*})(1-\gamma)} \\\\ &=& \frac{2}{p^{*}(1-p^{*})} +\gamma_{p^{*}}\frac{1-a}{(1-\gamma)(1-a\gamma)} \\ \\ L^{++}+L^{--}-L^{+-}-L^{-+} &=& \frac{\left.\frac{dpa\gamma}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{p^{*}a\gamma} +\frac{\left.\frac{d(1-p)\gamma}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{(1-p^{*})\gamma} -\frac{\left.\frac{dp(1-a\gamma)}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{p^{*}(1-a\gamma)} -\frac{\left.\frac{d(1-p)(1-\gamma)}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{(1-p^{*})(1-\gamma)} \\ &=& \left( \frac{2}{\gamma} +\frac{a}{1-a\gamma} +\frac{1}{1-\gamma}\right)\gamma_{p^{*}} \\ \\ L^{++}-L^{--}-L^{+-}+L^{-+} &=& \frac{\left.\frac{dpa\gamma}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{p^{*}a\gamma} -\frac{\left.\frac{d(1-p)\gamma}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{(1-p^{*})\gamma} -\frac{\left.\frac{dp(1-a\gamma)}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{p^{*}(1-a\gamma)} +\frac{\left.\frac{d(1-p)(1-\gamma)}{dp}\right|_{p=p^{*}}}{(1-p^{*})(1-\gamma)} \\\\ &=& \frac{a-1}{(1-a\gamma)(1-\gamma)}\gamma_{p^{*}}. \end{array} \end{array} $$

Appendix B: Variable descriptions and measurement

1.1 B.1 CEO compensation variable

C o m p j t :

Change in the natural logarithm of total annual compensation for firm j’s CEO between fiscal years t and t − 1, where total annual compensation in a given fiscal year is equal to the sum of salary, bonus, total value of restricted stock granted, total value of stock options granted, long-term incentive payouts, and all other compensation (ExecuComp TDC1).

1.2 B.2 Firm-year-peer variables

\({ret}_{jt,\tau }^{{3\text {-}day}}\) :

Natural logarithm of one plus firm j’s stock return for a three-day subperiod τ within fiscal year t.

\({peer\rule [0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}ret}_{jt,k,\tau }^{3\text {-}day}\) :

Natural logarithm of one plus the stock return for firm j’s peer k for a three-day subperiod τ within fiscal year t.

p e r f c o r r jt,k :

Correlation coefficient between firm j’s three-day stock returns (\({ret}_{{jt;t}}^{{3\text {-}day}}\)) and the three-day stock return for firm j’s peer k (\({peer\rule [0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}ret}_{jt,k,\tau }^{{3\text {-}day}}\)), which is estimated using the 84 three-day return windows within j’s fiscal year t (i.e., approximately 84 × 3 = 252 trading days total within a fiscal year).

\({i}_{{jt,k}}^{{{1\text {-}way}}}\) :

An indicator variable equal to one (zero) if the relationship between firm j and its peer k is (not) one-way (i.e., k does not also consider j as its peer).

\({i}_{{jt,k}}^{{larger}}\) :

An indicator variable equal to one (zero) if the market value of firm j’s peer k is (not) larger than the market value of equity of firm j at the beginning of fiscal year t.

\({i}_{{jt,k}}^{{diff\text {-}ind}}\) :

An indicator variable equal to one (zero) if firm j is (not) in a different two-digit SIC industry from its peer k during fiscal year t.

p e e r r e t jt,k :

Natural logarithm of one plus the annual stock return for firm j’s peer k measured during j’s fiscal year t, such that \({\sum }^{84}_{\tau =1}{{peer\rule [0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}ret}}_{jt,k,\tau }^{{3\text {-}day}}={{peer\rule [0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}ret}_{jt,k}}\).

\({ret}_{jt,\tau }^{+}\) :

Indicator variable equal to one if \({ret}_{jt,\tau }^{3\text {-}day}\geq 0\) and equal to zero otherwise.

\({peer\rule [0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}ret}_{jt,k,\tau }^{+}\) :

Indicator variable equal to one if \({{peer\rule [0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}ret}}_{jt,k,\tau }^{{3-day}}\geq 0\) and equal to zero otherwise.

\(\gamma _{{jt,k}}^{+}{}\) :

Conditional probability of a positive stock return for firm j’s peer k during a three-day subperiod τ, within fiscal year t given that firm j also has a positive return during τ. For a given firm j, peer firm k, and fiscal year t, \(\gamma _{jt,k}^{+}\) is estimated using 252 three-day return windows during the three most recent fiscal years prior to t (i.e., t− 1, t− 2 and t− 3) as follows.

$$ \begin{array}{@{}rcl@{}} \gamma_{{jt,k}}^{+} &=& {Pr}({{peer\rule[0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}ret}}_{jt,k,\tau}^{+} = 1|{{ret}}_{jt,\tau}^{+}=1)\\ &=& \frac{\sum\limits_{s=1}^{3} \sum\limits_{\tau=1}^{84} \left[{{peer\rule[0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}ret}_{jt-s,k,\tau}^{+} \times {ret}_{jt-s,\tau}^{+}}\right]}{\sum\limits_{s=1}^{3} \sum\limits_{\tau=1}^{84} {{ret}_{jt-s,\tau}^{+}}} \end{array} $$
\(\gamma _{jt,k}^{-}\) :

Conditional probability of a nonpositive stock return for firm j’s peer k during a three-day subperiod τ, within fiscal year t given that firm j also has a nonpositive return during τ. For a given firm j, peer firm k, and fiscal year t, \(\gamma _{jt,k}^{-}\) is estimated using 252 three-day return windows during the three most recent fiscal years prior to t (i.e., t− 1, t− 2 and t− 3) as follows.

$$ \begin{array}{@{}rcl@{}} \gamma_{jt,k}^{-} &=& {Pr}\left[{{peer\rule[0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}ret}}_{jt,k,\tau}^{+}=0|{{ret}_{jt,\tau}^{+}}=0\right]\\ &=& \frac{\sum\limits_{s=1}^{3} \sum\limits_{\tau=1}^{84}\left[(1-{{peer\rule[0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}ret}_{jt-s,k,\tau}^{+}}) \times (1-{{ret}}_{jt-s,\tau}^{+})\right]}{\sum\limits_{s=1}^{3} \sum\limits_{\tau=1}^{84}(1-{{ret}}_{jt-s,\tau}^{+})} \end{array} $$

1.3 B.3 Firm-year performance variables

R e t j t :

Natural logarithm of one plus firm j’s annual stock return in fiscal year t, such that \({\sum }^{84}_{\tau {}=1} {ret}_{jt,\tau }^{3\text {-}day} = {Ret}_{jt}\).

P e r f C o r r j t :

Average performance correlations between firm j and its peer firms k during fiscal year t, which is equal to \({\sum }_{k=1}^{Njt} {{perf\rule [0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}corr}}_{jt,k}/{{N}}_{jt}\), where Njt is the number of firms with nonmissing performance measures that firm j considers to be a peer in fiscal year t.

P e e r R e t j t :

Average of aggregate peer performances for all of firm j’s peer firms k during fiscal year t, which is equal to \({\sum }_{k=1}^{{{N}_{jt}}}{{{peer\rule [0pt]{5pt}{0.2pt}{}ret}_{jt,k}}/{{N}_{jt}}}\), where Njt is the number of firms with nonmissing performance measures that firm j considers to be a peer in fiscal year t.

\({\Gamma }_{jt}^{+}\) (\({\Gamma }_{jt}^{-}\)):

Average across all of firm j’s peer firms k during fiscal year t of conditional probability of a positive (nonpositive) stock return for j’s peer k during a three-day subperiod τ within fiscal year t given that firm j also has a positive (nonpositive) return during τ, which is equal to \({\sum }_{\tau =1}^{N_{jt}}~\gamma _{jt,k}^{+}/N_{jt}\) \(({\sum }_{\tau =1}^{N_{jt}}~\gamma _{jt,k}^{-}/N_{jt})\) where Njt is the number of firms with nonmissing performance measures that firm j considers to be a peer in fiscal year t

\({A}_{jt}^{+}\) :

Positive asymmetric sensitivity to peer performance represented by an indicator variable equal to one if the average conditional probability of positive returns for both firm j and its peer firms \({\Gamma }_{jt}^{+}\) is greater than the average conditional probability of non-positive returns for both firm j and its peer firms \({\Gamma }_{jt}^{-}\) and equal to zero otherwise.

1.4 B.4 Firm-year control variables

I S V j t :

Idiosyncratic return volatility for firm j in fiscal year t, which is equal to the standard deviation of residuals from a time-series regression of firm j’s monthly returns on two-digit SIC industry returns estimated using the most recent 36 (minimum of 18 required) monthly returns immediately prior to the beginning of fiscal year t. Industry returns are computed as the equal-weighted portfolio return based on firms in the same two-digit SIC, excluding the monthly return of firm j.

S i z e j t :

Change in the size of firm j, between the beginning of fiscal years t and t − 1, where firm size is measured by the natural logarithm of the book value of firm j’s total assets.

M T B j t :

Change in the market-to-book ratio of firm j, between the beginning of fiscal years t and t − 1, where the market-to-book ratio is computed as firm j’s market value of total assets divided by the book value of total assets. Market value of assets is equal to the book value of total assets minus the book value of equity plus the market value of equity.

N j t :

Number of firms with nonmissing firm-performance variables that firm j considers to be a peer in fiscal year t.

\(\%{{Peers}}^{{1\text {-}way}}_{{jt}}\) :

Fraction of firm j’s peer firm relationships during fiscal year t that are one-way (i.e., peer firm does not consider j as a peer), which is computed by \({\sum }_{k=1}^{N_{jt}} i_{jt,k}^{{{1\text {-}way}}} / N_{jt}\).

\(\%{{Peers}}_{jt}^{{larger}}\) :

Fraction of firm j’s peer firms that have a larger market value of equity than j at the beginning of fiscal year t, which is computed by \({\sum }_{k=1}^{N_{jt}} i_{jt,k}^{{diff\text {-}ind}} / N_{jt}\).

\(\%{Peers}_{jt}^{{diff\text {-}ind}}\) :

Fraction of firm j’s peer firms that are in a different two-digit SIC industry during fiscal year t, which is computed by \({\sum }_{k=1}^{N_{jt}} i_{jt,k}^{{diff\text {-}ind}} / N_{jt}\).

O w n j t :

CEO’s percentage ownership of firm j and is equal to the number of shares (excluding options) owned divided by the number of common shares outstanding at the beginning of fiscal year t.

C h a i r j t :

Indicator variable equal to one (zero) if the title of firm j’s CEO in fiscal year t indicates (does not indicate) that the CEO is also the board chair.

T e n u r e j t :

The natural logarithm of the tenure of firm j’s CEO at the end of fiscal year t, where tenure is defined as the number of days between the last day of fiscal year t and the day when the CEO assumed the position.

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Ball, R.T., Bonham, J. & Hemmer, T. Does it pay to ‘Be Like Mike’? Aspiratonal peer firms and relative performance evaluation. Rev Account Stud 25, 1507–1541 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11142-020-09540-1

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