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An extreme climatic event and systemic vulnerabilities in the face of conflict: insights from the Taliban insurgency in Swat, Pakistan

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Abstract

The association between climate change and conflict is a contentious topic which reflects a small but growing body of evidence. While scholars report climate change as a driver of armed conflict with marked inconsistencies, the ways conflict and terrorism exacerbate the impacts of climate change and stand as a barrier to reduce exposure to and risks associated with future stressors have received little attention. Here, we aim to understand how the Taliban-led conflict affected the capacities of people living in conflict zones to cope with one extreme climatic event, namely the devastating flood of 2010. Using key informant interviews, focus group discussions and household surveys, we develop an understanding of how the interlinkages between economics, culture, and politics, alongside deteriorating natural resources, accentuated land ownership disputes that led to the Taliban insurgency in Swat, Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Province, Pakistan. Our findings reveal how the insurgency magnified the impacts of the 2010 flood and eroded rural livelihoods (e.g. farming and tourism) in the region. We demonstrate how existing and reproduced vulnerabilities alongside key stressors (i.e. armed conflict, the flood of 2010 and deforestation) became barriers to risk reduction. The study illustrates how these vulnerabilities, especially ownership disputes, and barriers to risk reduction can magnify the current and future risk environment. This case study highlights armed conflict as a contributing factor in the intensification of climate change impacts and associated extreme events.

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Notes

  1. (depth and breadth of poverty)

  2. Tehreek-e-Nafizay Sharia Muhammad (TNSM) provided ideological inspiration to the Afghan Taliban in 1990 and the organisation was strongly allied with the Afghan Taliban.

  3. TTP was an alliance of various militant groups (Rome 2011).

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Acknowledgements

We would like to thank the research team, including a research assistant, Mobushir Iqbal, from the University of Agriculture Faisalabad (UAF), for valuable contributions during data collection in Swat.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. UWA School of Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia

    Muhammad Rafay Muzamil & Bryan Boruff

  2. University of Agriculture, Faisalabad, Punjab, Pakistan

    Muhammad Rafay Muzamil & Babar Shahbaz

  3. Department of Geography and Planning, The University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Highway, Crawley, WA, 6009, Australia

    Petra Tschakert & Bryan Boruff

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  1. Muhammad Rafay Muzamil
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  2. Petra Tschakert
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Correspondence to Muhammad Rafay Muzamil.

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Communicated by Chandni Singh

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Muzamil, M.R., Tschakert, P., Boruff, B. et al. An extreme climatic event and systemic vulnerabilities in the face of conflict: insights from the Taliban insurgency in Swat, Pakistan. Reg Environ Change 21, 3 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01738-y

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