Prague Economic Papers 2020, 29(3):351-377 | DOI: 10.18267/j.pep.717

How Consumers’ Inflation Expectations Respond to Explosive Periods of Food and Energy Prices: Evidence for European Union Countries

Aytül Ganioğlu^a

^a Structural Economic Research Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, İstiklal Cad. No:10 Ulus, Ankara, Turkey

In this study, using the recent recursive unit root tests proposed by Phillips et al. (2015), we identify and date-stamp periods where food and energy prices deviate explosively relative to other prices in the economy and analyse the implications in terms of anchoring inflation expectations. During the period from January 2003 to July 2018, we have detected the existence of such periods for 17 out of 27 EU countries. Identifying these explosive periods is particularly important since evidence reveals that consumers change, i.e., revise their inflation expectations during periods when headline consumer prices deviate explosively from core prices. Furthermore, it is realized that consumers take macroeconomic variables into account as well as past inflation when forming inflation expectations in both normal and explosive periods. On the other hand, there are particular differences among groups of countries while adjusting their inflation expectations during explosive phases. A common feature for all the countries is that during explosive periods, consumers change and update their inflation expectations on the basis of information coming from the interest rate. More specifically, consumers in all the countries perceive a higher current interest rate as an indication of higher future inflation, leading to higher inflation expectations in explosive periods. A particularly important policy implication of these findings is that periods of explosive deviations in headline prices from core prices should be monitored closely while designing policies to anchor inflation expectations.

Keywords: Explosive behaviour, food and energy prices, inflation expectations, generalized sup ADF test, inflation, core inflation

JEL classification: C50, E31

Received: February 15, 2018; Accepted: January 24, 2019; Prepublished online: December 20, 2019; Published: June 16, 2020  Show citation