Hostname: page-component-76fb5796d-wq484 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-25T17:26:59.265Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE: A NEW APPROACH, NEW DATA, AND NEW RESULTS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 September 2020

Michele Battisti
Affiliation:
University of Palermo
Gianfranco di Vaio
Affiliation:
Cassa Depositi e Prestiti and LUISS
Joseph Zeira*
Affiliation:
Hebrew University of Jerusalem
*
Address correspondence to: Joseph Zeira, Department of Economics, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mt. Scopus, Jerusalem91905, Israel. e-mail: joseph.zeira@mail.huji.ac.il. Phone: 972-54-6588333. Fax: 972-2-5816071.

Abstract

Recently, Penn World Tables include new data that enable calculation of total factor productivity in addition to output for a large set of countries. We use these new data to examine convergence and divergence across countries by applying a new approach, which differentiates between the dynamics of output and of productivity. Our empirical results lead to two main new contributions to the literature. The first is on the interpretation of “β-convergence” in “growth regressions.” It means that output per worker in each country converges to productivity but does not imply convergence across countries, since productivity tends to diverge from the global frontier. The second contribution is to the literature, which finds that income gaps across countries are due mainly to differential technology adoption. This paper shows that the gaps in technology are not only large but keep growing over time.

Type
Articles
Copyright
© 2020 Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We are deeply grateful to Steve Durlauf and Andros Kourtellos for their support. We are grateful to an Associate Editor and two Reviewers for their excellent comments. We also received helpful comments from Francesco Caselli, Antonio Ciccone, John Donaldson, Marcus Eberhardt, Roger Farmer, Dan Henderson, Robert Inklaar, Chad Jones, Mario Lavezzi, Hideki Nakamura, Chris Parmeter, Kerry Patterson, Fabiano Schivardi, Thanasis Stengos, John Temple, David Weil, and Pierre Yared. Remaining errors are all ours. The views in this paper are of the authors and do not reflect their affiliated institutions.

References

Acemoglu, D., Aghion, P. and Zilibotti, F. (2006) Distance to frontier, selection, and economic growth. Journal of the European Economic Association 4, 3774.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aghion, P. (2004) Growth and development, a schumpeterian approach. Annals of Economics and Finance 5, 125.Google Scholar
Alesina, A., Battisti, M. and Zeira, J. (2018) Technology and labor regulations: Theory and evidence. Journal of Economic Growth 23, 4178.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, R. J. (1991) Economic growth in a cross section of countries. Quarterly Journal of Economics 106, 407443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, R. J. (2015) Convergence and modernization revisited. Economic Journal 125, 911942.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, R. J. and Lee, J. W. (2010) A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010. NBER Working Paper No. 15902.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, R. J. and X. Sala-i-Martin (1992) Convergence. Journal of Political Economy 100, 223251.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Battisti, M., Del Gatto, M. and Parmeter, C. F. (2018) Labor productivity growth: disentangling technology and capital accumulation. Journal of Economic Growth 23, 111143.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baumol, W. J. (1986) Productivity growth, convergence, and welfare: What the long-run data show. American Economic Review 76, 10721085 Google Scholar
Bergeaud, A., Cette, G. and Lecat, R. (2016) Productivity trends in advanced countries between 1890 and 2012. Review of Income and Wealth 62, 420444.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergeaud, A., Cette, G. and Lecat, R. (2019) Convergence of GDP per capita in advanced countries over the 20th Century. Empirical Economics, 118.Google Scholar
Bernard, A. B. and Durlauf, S. N. (1995) Convergence in international output. Journal of Applied Econometrics 10, 97108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bernard, A. B. and Durlauf, S. N. (1996) Interpreting tests of the convergence hypothesis. Journal of Econometrics 71, 161173.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Caselli, F. (2005). Accounting for cross-country income differences. In: Aghion, P. and Durlauf, S. N. (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, pp. 679741. Amsterdam: Elsevier.Google Scholar
Comin, D. A. and Hobijn, B. (2010) An exploration of technology diffusion. American Economic Review 100, 20312059.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Comin, D. A. and Mestieri, M. F. (2018) If technology has arrived everywhere, why has income diverged? American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10, 137178.Google Scholar
Deckers, T. and Hanck, C. (2014) Multiple testing for output convergence. Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, 199214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dowrick, S. and Rogers, M. (2002) Classical and technological convergence: Beyond the Solow-Swan growth model. Oxford Economic Papers 54, 369385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Durlauf, S. N. (2009) The Rise and fall of cross-country growth regressions. History of Political Economy 41, 315333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Durlauf, S. N., Johnson, P. A. and Temple, J. R. W. (2005). Growth econometrics. In: Aghion, P. and Durlauf, S. N. (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, pp. 555677. Amsterdam: Elsevier.Google Scholar
Durlauf, S. N., Kourtellos, A. and Minkin, A. (2001) The local Solow growth model. European Economic Review 46, 928940.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Durlauf, S. N., Kourtellos, A. and Tan, C.-M. (2008) Are any growth theories robust? Economic Journal 118, 329346.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eberhardt, M. and Teal, F. (2013) Structural change and cross-country growth empirics. The World Bank Economic Review 27, 229271.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Feenstra, R. C., Inklaar, R. and Timmer, M. P. (2015) The next generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review 105, 31503182.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, M. (1992) Do old fallacies ever die? Journal of Economic Literature 30, 21292132.Google Scholar
Gourinchas, P. O. and Jeanne, O. (2013) Capital flows to developing countries: The allocation puzzle. Review of Economic Studies 80, 14841515.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hall, R. E. and Jones, C. I. (1999) Why do some countries produce so much more output per worker than others? Quarterly Journal of Economics 114, 83116.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hauk, W. R. Jr. and Wacziarg, R. (2009) A Monte Carlo study of growth regressions. Journal of Economic Growth 14, 103147.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hayashi, F. (1982) Tobin’s marginal q and average q: A neoclassical interpretation. Econometrica 50, 213224.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henderson, D. J. and Russell, R. R. (2005) Human capital and convergence: a production-frontier approach. International Economic Review 46, 11671205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henderson, D. J. (2010) A test for multimodality of regression derivatives with application to nonparametric growth regressions. Journal of Applied Econometrics 25, 458480.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hobijn, Bart and Franses, P. H. (2000). Asymptotically perfect and relative convergence of productivity. Journal of Applied Econometrics 15, 5981.3.0.CO;2-1>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsieh, C.-T. and Kleenow, P. J. (2010) Development accounting. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, 207223.Google Scholar
Inklaar, R. and Timmer, M. P. (2009) Productivity convergence across industries and countries: The importance of theory-based measurement. Macroeconomic Dynamics 13, 218240.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, S., Larson, W., Papageorgiou, C. and Subramanian, A. (2013) Is newer better? Penn World Table revisions and their impact on growth estimates. Journal of Monetary Economics 60, 255274.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Johnson, P. A. and Papageorgiou, C. (2020) What remains of cross-country convergence? Journal of Economic Literature 58, 129175.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, C. I. (2016) The facts of economic growth. In Taylor, J. B. and Uhlig, H. (eds.) Handbook of Macroeconomics, Vol. 2, pp. 369. Amsterdam: Elsevier.Google Scholar
Karabarbounis, L. and Neiman, B. (2014) The global decline of the labor share. Quarterly Journal of Economics 129, 61103.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klenow, P. J. and Rodríguez-Clare, A. (1997) The neoclassical revival in growth economics: Has it gone too far? In Bernanke, B. S. and Rotemberg, J. (eds.) NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, pp 73113. Cambridge: NBER.Google Scholar
Kormendi, R. C. and Meguire, P. G. (1985) Macroeconomic determinants of growth: cross-country evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics 16, 141163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krugman, P. (1979) A model of innovation, technology transfer, and the world distribution of income. Journal of Political Economy 89, 253266.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, K., Pesaran, H. M. and Smith, R. (1997) Growth and convergence in a multi-country empirical stochastic Solow model. Journal of Applied Econometrics 12, 357392.3.0.CO;2-T>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lee, K., Pesaran, H. M. and Smith, R. (1998) Growth empirics: a panel data approach, a comment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 113, 319323.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levchenko, A. A. and Zhang, J. (2016) The evolution of comparative advantage: measurement and welfare implications. Journal of Monetary Economics 78, 96111.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Liu, Z. and Stengos, T. (1999) Non-linearities in cross country growth regressions: A semiparametric approach. Journal of Applied Econometrics 14, 527538.3.0.CO;2-X>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Madsen, J. B. (2008) Economic growth, TFP convergence and the world export of ideas: a century of evidence. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 110, 145167.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Madsen, J. B. and Timol, I. (2011) Long-run convergence in manufacturing and innovation-based models. Review of Economics and Statistics 93, 11551171.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mankiw, G. N., Romer, D. and Weil, D. N. (1992) A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 408437.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nickell, S. J. (1981) Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica 49, 14171426 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parente, S. L. and Prescott, E. C. (1994) Barriers to technology adoption and development. Journal of Political Economy, 102, 298321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pedroni, P. (2019) Panel Cointegration techniques and open challenges. In: Tsionas, M. (ed.), Panel Data Econometrics, Volume 1: Theory, pp. 251287. Amsterdam: Elsevier, Academic Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pesaran, H. M. (2007) A pair-wise approach to testing for output and growth convergence. Journal of Econometrics 138, 312355.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pesaran, H. M. and Smith, R. (1995) Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics 68, 79113.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, P. C. B. and Sul, D. (2007a) Transition modeling and econometric convergence tests. Econometrica 75, 17711855.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, P. C. B. and Sul, D. (2007b) Some empirics on economic growth under heterogeneous technology. Journal of Macroeconomics 29, 455469.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Phillips, P. C. B. and Sul, D. (2009) Economic transition and growth. Journal of Applied Econometrics 24, 11531185.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pritchett, L. (1997) Divergence big time. Journal of Economic Perspectives 11, 317.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pritchett, L. and Summers, L.H. (2014) Asiaphoria meets regression to the mean. NBER Working Paper No. 20573, Cambridge, MA.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quah, D. (1993) Galton’s fallacy and tests of the convergence hypothesis. Scandinavian Journal of Economics 95, 427443.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quah, D. T. (1996) Twin peaks: growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics. Economic Journal 106, 10451055.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rodrik, D. (2011) The future of economic convergence. NBER Working Paper Number 17400.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rodrik, D. (2013) Unconditional convergence in manufacturing. Quarterly Journal of Economics 128, 165204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solow, R. M. (1956) A contribution to the theory of economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 70, 6594.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solow, R. M. (1957) Technical change and the aggregate production function. Review of Economics and Statistics 39, 312320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stengos, T. and Yazgan, E. M. (2014) Persistence in convergence. Macroeconomic Dynamics 18, 753782.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zeira, J. (1998) Workers, machines, and economic growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 113, 10911117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zeira, J. (2009) Why and how education affects economic growth. Review of International Economics 17, 602614.CrossRefGoogle Scholar