Abstract
It has been suggested that a warm (cold) ENSO event in winter is mostly followed by a late (early) onset of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon (SCSSM) in spring. Our results show this positive relationship, which is mainly determined by their phase correlation, has been broken under recent rapid global warming since 2011, due to the disturbance of cold tongue (CT) La Niña events. Different from its canonical counterpart, a CT La Niña event is characterized by surface meridional wind divergences in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, which can delay the SCSSM onset by enhanced convections in the warming Indian Ocean and the western subtropical Pacific. Owing to the increased Indian-western Pacific warming and the prevalent CT La Niña events, empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset based on ENSO may be challenged in the future.
摘要
冬季ENSO暖(冷)事件通常伴随着次年春季南海夏季风的推迟(提前)爆发。我们的研究结果发现,这种相关关系主要是由两者的位相关系决定,而非强度;但是伴随着2011年后全球快速变暖,这种关系被频发的冷舌型La Niña事件破坏。与传统的La Niña事件不同,这种冷舌型La Niña事件主要是由中东太平洋的经向风辐散所主导,能够使副热带西太平洋海温增暖、对流增强,联合印太暖池的增温趋势,进而抑制了南海夏季风的爆发。伴随着印度洋和西太平洋的持续增温,以及冷舌型La Niña事件的频发,未来,基于ENSO的南海夏季风爆发的经验预测充满了挑战。
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Acknowledgements
The authors acknowledge the anonymous reviewers’ helpful suggestions, and Dr. Jeremy Cheuk-Hin LEUNG’s polishing. This work was jointly sponsored by the National Key R&D Program (Grant No. 2018YFC1505904), the National Science Natural Foundation of China (Grant No. 41830969) and the Basic Scientific Research and Operation Foundation of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (Grant Nos. 2018Z006 and 2018Y003), and the scientific development foundation of CAMS (2020KJ012). This study was also supported by the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change. The HadISST1 dataset was obtained from the Met Office Hadley Centre and can be downloaded from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/data/download.html. The NOAA High-resolution Blended Analysis of Daily SST, NCEP reanalysis data, interpolated OLR data, and CMAP precipitation data, provided by NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, can be obtained from their website at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.
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Article Highlights
• The past positive correlation between SCSSM onset and ENSO became invalid during 2011−19.
• CT La Niña delayed the SCSSM onset and broke the positive correlation.
• Empirical seasonal forecasting of SCSSM onset may fail under future global warming.
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Jiang, N., Zhu, C. Seasonal Forecast of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset Disturbed by Cold Tongue La Niña in the Past Decade. Adv. Atmos. Sci. 38, 147–155 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-0090-y
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-0090-y