Abstract
In the coming century, average temperatures are predicted to increase by 2.5 to ten degrees Fahrenheit as a result of climate change. Yet citizens around the world vary in their perceptions of how serious the threat of rising temperatures is. I argue that variation in the perceived seriousness of climate change reflects the degree to which individuals internalize the welfare of others in society besides themselves. I describe and two models of “other-regarding” preferences - social welfare maximization and inequity aversion - and test their predictions using data from the World Values Survey. I employ genetic matching and a difference-in-difference design in order to mitigate potential endogeneity. I also explore behavioral implications of the theory using original data on climate change-related web searches. The empirical tests support the argument: individuals who exhibit high levels of other-regarding preferences are more likely to express serious concern - and seek out new information - about global warming.
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Notes
See https://climate.nasa.gov/effects/. Recent studies suggest that Pacific Island nations may already be experiencing significant shoreline recession (Albert et al. 2016).
According to the World Values Survey, Wave 5.
This work is similar in spirit to Bechtel et al. (2017) which demonstrates that altruistic individuals are on average more supportive of international climate cooperation. The present contribution builds on this existing work in three ways. First, it explores the microfoundations of altruism by developing two alternative models of other-regarding preferences. Second, it provides evidence of a direct relationship between altruism and the salience of climate change as a political issue in contrast with willingness-to-pay in a global public goods setting. Finally, the current work tests these arguments cross-nationally providing evidence that such explanations have broad external validity.
In the Appendix I also present the results of fixed effects specifications which accounts for unobservable, yet invariant unit-specific confounders. The fixed effects specification provides another means of addressing potential omitted variables bias though other forms of endogeneity (reverse causality) may remain.
See also Rathbun et al. (2016) which applies similar insights to foreign policy attitudes.
See also Camerer and Fehr (2002)
An enduring concern with such experiments is that they may not correspond to actual behaviors outside the laboratory. Benz and Meier (2006) provide evidence that altruistic behavior in a laboratory setting is correlated with altruistic behavior in the field. The authors collect data on student charitable donations prior to conducting a lab experiment and then match participants’ behavior in the lab setting with their donation history. The study finds that altruism in the lab-setting correlates at between 0.25 and 0.4 with behavior outside of the lab.
As an early example, the 2007/2008 Human Development Report notes that if unabated, climate change could be “ apocalyptic” for some of the poorest people in the world (Watkins 2007).
Note that my use of scientific uncertainty refers to uncertainty at the individual level regarding the existing scientific consensus, not necessarily the certainty of that consensus itself.
While the attribution of specific events may lead egoistic individuals to update the relative likelihood they themselves will be affects, based on the geographic location of prior events, as these events can only be attributed to climate change ex post some level of distributional uncertainty will always persist.
Two additional studies highlight the role of education and post-materialism (Kvaloy et al. 2012) and education and local temperature change (Lee et al. 2015) respectively. An older literature also provides thorough descriptive evidence of climate change awareness and preferences in cross-national context. For examples see Nisbet and Myers (2007), Lorenzoni and Pidgeon (2006), and Brechin and Bhandari (2011) and Leiserowitz et al. (2007).
Alternatively excluding those respondents who reply that climate change is “not very serious” or “not serious at all” does not change the results.
The selected items are depicted in Table 1 of the Supplementary Materials.
The selected items are depicted in Table 2 of the Supplementary Materials.
Using the prcomp package in R. In practice this leads to the elimination of only one variable from the two sets of items. The eliminated variable is V115 from the set of inequity aversion items.
Table 3 and Fig. 1 in the Supplementary Materials provide an overview of the construction of the Collectivism measure.
For completeness I also conduct additional robustness checks which show that employing the second principle component as an alternative measure does in most cases not substantively alter the results.
I reverse code the measure so that higher values indicate lower identification with risk taking behavior, that is risk aversion.
While political identity can be measured in many ways existing research provides strong justification for employing the self-positioning scale as an appropriate proxy. As Egan and Mullin (2017) note, “Partisan divisions on the issue [of climate change] are not limited to the United States: A meta-analysis of 25 polls and 171 studies in 156 countries showed that identification with conservative parties and ideology strongly and consistently predicted climate change skepticism across political settings.” Robustness exercises described below consider alternative measures of political identity.
Measuring exposure to extreme environmental events using the total number of deaths from natural disasters or a simple count of natural disasters occuring in the year prior to data collection does not alter the results.
While it would be preferable to have individual level measures of economic impact (industry of employment for example), no such data was not collected by the World Values Survey.
Controlling instead for the proportion of a nation’s border’s made up of coastline yields similar results.
GDP per capita obtained from the World Bank.
In other words, the goal of matching is to achieve balance across high- and low-social preference groups in terms of the multivariate distribution of potentially related observables. In the results presented below I emphasize key independent variables and covariates. Full results for all parameter estimates below can be found in Table 5 of the Supplementary Materials.
Among the included covariates, right-wing political views and evangelicalism are negatively correlated with concern as predicted by existing literature. Similarly post-materialism exhibits a positive and statistically significant association across all models. Both the indicator for island nations and the per capita carbon emissions variables are signed as expected and - in the case of the former - statistically significant across the board.
See Table 6 of the Supplementary Materials.
See Table 7 of the Supplementary Materials.
See Table 8 of the Supplementary Materials. Results for the matched sample analyses available upon request.
See Table 9 in the Supplementary Materials.
Note that inclusion of these potentially post-treatment variables can result in severely biased coefficient estimates. Genetic matching implemented via the MatchIt package in R.
Additional diagnostics of the matching procedures are included in Figs. 2 and 3 of the Supplementary Materials. These figures depict the univariate distributions for treated versus control units for each matched covariate. Again, the distributions are very similar indicating that the matched samples are well-balanced across treatment conditions.
Full covariate results are included in Tables 10 and 11 of the Supplementary Materials. There I also include additional results obtained by creating matched samples based on a threshold equivalent to the 75th rather than the 90th percentile of each social preference variable. Re-estimating the models depicted in Table 3 using these alternative samples generates substantively similar results. See Tables 12 and 13 of the Supplementary Materials.
Robustness results for the matched samples available on request.
See Tables 14–16 in the Supplementary Materials.
See Table 17 of the Supplementary Materials.
This allows the data to be interpreted as proportions of total search volume for a particular time and location enabling comparison across settings with different numbers of Internet users.
These are the four years following administration of the World Values Survey.
In total I collect data for English and an additional 27 foreign languages including Arabic, Bulgarian, Dutch, Finish, French, German, Hungarian, Indonesian, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Malay, Norwegian, Persian, Polish, Portuguese, Romanian, Russian, Simplified Chinese, Slovenian, Spanish, Swedish, Thai, Traditional Chinese, Turkish, Ukrainian, and Vietnamese. See Appendix for additional details on construction of the dataset.
I exclude the measure of per capita emissions intensity as limitations in its availability dramatically reduce an already small samples size. As the measure has greater availability during the 2005-2009 window, as a robustness check I re-estimate the models presented here on that earlier sample including per capita emissions as a covariate. The results remain unchanged though estimation on this earlier window, which is contemporaneous with the WVS itself, may introduce potential for post-treatment bias. Alternatively, including country fixed effects does not alter the results. Results available upon request.
For a recent example see Gelman (2009) on how reliance on ecological inference has led to widespread misperceptions of red versus blue state voting patterns in the United States.
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For helpful comments and suggestions I thank Faisal Ahmed, Neal Beck, Carissa T. Block, Sanford Gordon, Alex Kustov, Helen V. Milner, Julia Morse, and Tyler Pratt.
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Kennard, A. My Brother’s Keeper: Other-regarding preferences and concern for global climate change. Rev Int Organ 16, 345–376 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-019-09374-w
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-019-09374-w