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Terrorism in India as a Determinant of Terrorism in Pakistan

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Abstract

Terrorism in Pakistan springs from many factors such as, poverty, corruption, inequality, sham democracy, and low-level literacy; however, the effect of terrorism in India over terrorism in Pakistan remains unnoticed. This study explores the role of terrorism in India as a determinant of terrorism in Pakistan. This fangled determinant of terrorism in Pakistan forms the premise of our work. The Johansen cointegration analysis technique confirms the long-run relationship among terrorism in India and Pakistan and unemployment in Pakistan. Error correction model (ECM) resulted 55% of convergence annually. Besides, ECM verifies both short and long-run causalities. The VECM Granger and Modified Wald (MWALD) causality tests reveal that terrorism in India and unemployment in Pakistan Granger causes terrorism in Pakistan, but no reverse causality exists. The study concludes that both terrorism in India and unemployment in Pakistan results in terrorism in Pakistan. Coping with terrorism, Pakistan and India must revisit their respective roles; and simultaneously, Pakistan should address the unemployment problem—which facilitates recruitment for the terrorist organizations.

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Notes

  1. Ender and Sandler (2002:145)

  2. Pakistan Statistical Year Book (Federal Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan, Islamabad, 2010).

  3. James Manor, “Collective conflict in India,” in Conflict Studies, No.212 (June 1988)

  4. Naxals: Communist guerrilla groups in India

  5. Prominent BJP leaders including L.K Advani are still facing criminal charges for their alleged involvement in the destruction of Babri Mosque.

  6. Gujarat violence: Meaning and implications, Economic and Political Weekly, May 18 (Ahmed, 2002).

  7. RAW whipping up terrorism in Pakistan: General Raheel (Pakistan observer, May 6, 2015)

  8. RAW trains MQM workers for unrest in Karachi: SSP Karachi (Express tribune Pakistan, February 22, 2016)

  9. Rangers nab three RAW trained MQM men (The nation Pakistan, February 25, 2016)

  10. RAW agent Kalboshan Yadaw, arrested in Balochistan (Dawn, March 25, 2016)

  11. RAW camps in Baluchistan. The DAWN Karachi (August 31, 2004)

  12. Gujarat violence: Meaning and implications, Economic and Political Weekly, May 18 (Ahmed 2002).

  13. Guerrilla resistance movement that transformed East Pakistan into Bangladesh in 1971.

  14. Dossier on Indian terrorism in Pakistan handed over to UN (The News, January 6, 2017)

  15. Muslim boys in thousands are being kidnapped to be traded as suicide bombers. The Daily Star, London (January 3, 2016)

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Correspondence to Assad Ullah.

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Ullah, A., Qingxiang, Y., Ali, Z. et al. Terrorism in India as a Determinant of Terrorism in Pakistan. Asian Criminology 13, 57–77 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11417-017-9257-6

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