Abstract
Since 2000, President Vladimir Putin of Russia has persistently pushed for trilateral economic projects involving Moscow, Seoul, and Pyongyang, especially in the fields of energy (oil, gas, and electricity) and transportation (railroad). The Kremlin has long maintained that its proposed trilateral projects would not only be economically beneficial to all but also pave the road to inter-Korean reconciliation and peaceful unification. This article addresses three questions regarding Putin’s trilateral economic projects. What motivates Russia to push for the projects? Would they bring benefits to the three countries? Would they facilitate Korean peace process? The authors argue that Putin’s trilateral economic projects are part of Russia’s quest for power and search for a multipolar world order and should be understood from the theoretical framework of “structural realism.” The research finds that the projects are not feasible due to North Korea’s nuclear crisis and economic uncertainties and may be implemented after the current North Korea’s nuclear crisis is resolved diplomatically, if North Korea’s leadership changes or if inter-Korean reconciliation and cooperation is achieved by the progressive government of Moon Jae-In.
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Notes
Rajin is now a district of North Korea’s special city Rason. Rason is short for Rajin-Sonbong, two formerly separate cities. In this article, Rajin and Rason will be used synonymously.
Ahn ByungMin at the Korea Transport Institute, telephone interview, January 6, 2017, Seoul.
Kim Kyung Sool, Senior Research Fellow at Korea Energy Economics Institute, personal interview, July 10, 2014, Anyang City, Korea.
South Korea is not the only destination for Russia’s coal exports through the Rajin port. In March 2014, the first shipments of the Kuzbass coal from the stations of the Western-Siberian railway transported by rail to Rajin. The coal (8840 tons) was then shipped out to the ports of Shanghai, Lyanyungan, Guangzhou in China. Russia is expected to export coal, coke, iron ore to southern and southeastern coastal provinces of China at prices comparable to the prices delivered from Russian ports. See Russian Railways Logistics (2014).
Oh Youngdal, Team Leader, Direct Control of CEO Value Management Department at POSCO, personal interview, July 10, 2014, Seoul.
Park Kichang, European Division Director, European Affairs Bureau, Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, personal interview, July 30, 2014, Seoul.
Yoo Moon-Jong; Kwag, Seong-Seup, Russia Project Team at KOGAS, personal interview, July 22, 2014, Seoul.
Jeong Kyu-Won, Senior Manager at Korea Electric Power Corporation, personal interview, July 15, 2014, Seoul.
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This work was supported by Incheon National University Research Grant in 2014.
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Dr Seung-Ho Joo is the lead author.
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Joo, SH., Lee, Y. Putin and trilateral economic cooperation between Moscow, Seoul, and Pyongyang: motivation, feasibility, and Korean peace process. Asia Eur J 16, 81–99 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-017-0494-1
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10308-017-0494-1