Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Slope stability analysis using deterministic and probabilistic approaches for poorly defined stratigraphies

  • Original Article
  • Published:
Geomechanics and Geophysics for Geo-Energy and Geo-Resources Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The stability of slopes directly affects human lives, the environment, and the economy. Inaccurate geological profiles within numerical slope stability models can lead to potentially catastrophic consequences when model conditions do not appropriately reflect real-life stratigraphy. In cases where localised deposits are prevalent, probabilistic methods are often necessary to accommodate for unknown or poorly defined stratigraphies. Currently, there are no commercial geotechnical software packages that simulate probabilistic constitutive behaviour of materials within finite element methods for large-scale stratigraphic analysis. Instead, commercially available probabilistic methods such as the random limit equilibrium method are incapable of incorporating non-linear constitutive soil behaviour. For this reason, advanced constitutive models are seldom coupled with probabilistically varying soil layers or spatially variable soil parameters. The objective of this research is the implementation of a simplified method for probabilistic stratigraphic analysis within a commercially available FE environment, providing a technique to assess the effects of stratigraphic uncertainty on slope stability. The proposed method is presented, highlighting the impact of localised thin layers of soft material as well as their frequency and location on the slope of an operational open-pit mine. The significance of these stratigraphic effects is presented through a case study of Australia’s second-largest open-pit mine, at which the stability of a collapsed coal slope is analysed. To improve the reliability of the finite element method for slope stability assessment, the Monte Carlo approach has been incorporated to consider varying shear strength distributions for models incorporating advanced constitutive behaviour. Thicker probabilistically generated deposits of silty material resulted in increased slope Factors of Safety. Similarly, greater proportions of silty deposits within a predominantly clayey interseam produced larger safety factors than slopes without localised thin silty layers. Stratigraphic analysis indicated that the Factor of Safety was most sensitive to localised silt layers at depths greater than 83 m below ground level.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14
Fig. 15

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abramson LW et al (2002) Slope stability and stabilization methods. Wiley, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Agheshlui H (2019) Stress influence on the permeability of a sample heterogeneous rock. Geomech Geophys Geo-Energy Geo-Resour 5(2):159–170

    Google Scholar 

  • Agheshlui H, Matthai SJG (2017) Uncertainties in the estimation of in situ stresses: effects of heterogeneity and thermal perturbation. Geomech Geophys Geo-Energy Geo-Resour 3(4):415–438

    Google Scholar 

  • Ahmed Soliman BW, Hibberd D (2007) Brown coal open pit, Yallourn Eastfield, Victoria Flac modelling: morwell river diversion Channedl-Southern batters buffer width. Aust Geomech 42(2):87–96

    Google Scholar 

  • Allan F, Yacoub T, Curran J (2012) On using spatial methods for heterogeneous slope stability analysis. In: 46th US Rock mechanics/geomechanics symposium. American Rock Mechanics Association

  • Aryal KP (2006) Slope stability evaluations by limit equilibrium and finite element methods; Dissertation. Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway

    Google Scholar 

  • Bierkens MF, Weerts HJ (1994) Application of indicator simulation to modelling the lithological properties of a complex confining layer. Geoderma 62(1–3):265–284

    Google Scholar 

  • Burd H, Frydman S (1997) Bearing capacity of plane-strain footings on layered soils. Canadian Geotech J 34(2):241–253

    Google Scholar 

  • Carranza-Torres C, Fosnacht D, Hudak G (2017) Geomechanical analysis of the stability conditions of shallow cavities for compressed air energy storage (CAES) applications. Geomech Geophys Geo-Energy Geo-Resour 3(2):131–174

    Google Scholar 

  • Chandler DS (1996) Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate slope stability. In: Uncertainty in the geologic environment: from theory to practice. ASCE

  • Crisp MP et al (2019) A method for generating virtual soil profiles with complex, multi-layer stratigraphy. Georisk Assess Manag Risk Eng Syst Geohazards 13(2):154–163

    Google Scholar 

  • Crusoe GE Jr et al (2016) Effects of weak layer angle and thickness on the stability of rock slopes. Int J Min Geo-Eng 50(1):97–110

    Google Scholar 

  • Dawson E, Roth W, Drescher A (1999) Slope stability analysis by strength reduction. Geotechnique 49(6):835–840

    Google Scholar 

  • Deliveris A, Zevgolis I, Koukouzas N (2016) Numerical modelling of slope stability in open pit lignite mines: a comparative study. Bull Geol Soc Greece 50(2):671–680

    Google Scholar 

  • Dithinde M et al (2010) Characterization of model uncertainty in the static pile design formula. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 137(1):70–85

    Google Scholar 

  • Duzgun H, Bhasin R (2009) Probabilistic stability evaluation of Oppstadhornet rock slope, Norway. Rock Mech Rock Eng 42(5):729

    Google Scholar 

  • Dyson AP, Tolooiyan A (2018) Optimisation of strength reduction finite element method codes for slope stability analysis. Innov Infrastruct Solut 3:1–12

    Google Scholar 

  • Dyson AP, Tolooiyan A (2019a) Prediction and classification for finite element slope stability analysis by random field comparison. Comput Geotech 109:117–129

    Google Scholar 

  • Dyson AP, Tolooiyan A (2019b) Probabilistic investigation of RFEM topologies for slope stability analysis. Comput Geotech 114:103129

    Google Scholar 

  • Dyson AP, Tolooiyan A (2020a) Comparative approaches to probabilistic finite element methods for slope stability analysis. Simul Model Pract Theory 100:102061

    Google Scholar 

  • Dyson AP, Tolooiyan A (2020b) An investigation of cross-sectional spatial variation with random finite element method slope stability analysis. Geotech Geol Eng 38:6467–6485

  • Dyson AP, Tang Z, Tolooiyan A (2018) Use of stochastic XFEM in the investigation of heterogeneity effects on the tensile strength of intermediate geotechnical materials. Finite Elem Anal Des 145:1–9

    Google Scholar 

  • Eberhardt E (2003) Rock slope stability analysis—utilization of advanced numerical techniques. Earth and Ocean sciences at UBC

  • Elfeki A, Dekking M (2001) A Markov chain model for subsurface characterization: theory and applications. Math Geol 33(5):569–589

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • El-Ramly H, Morgenstern N, Cruden D (2002) Probabilistic slope stability analysis for practice. Can Geotech J 39(3):665–683

    Google Scholar 

  • EnergyAustralia (2019) cited 2019; Available from: https://www.energyaustralia.com.au/about-us/energy-generation/yallourn-power-station

  • Fleurisson J-A (2012) Slope design and implementation in open pit mines: geological and geomechanical approach. Procedia Eng 46:27–38

    Google Scholar 

  • Fredlund DG, Scoular R, Zakerzadeh N (1999) Using a finite element stress analysis to compute the factor of safety. In: 52nd Canadian geotechnical conference

  • Ghadrdan M, Shaghaghi T, Tolooiyan A (2019) The effect of negative excess pore-water pressure on the stability of excavated slopes. Géotech Lett 10(1):20–29

    Google Scholar 

  • Ghadrdan M, Shaghaghi T, Tolooiyan A (2020) Sensitivity of the stability assessment of a deep excavation to the material characterisations and analysis methods. Geomech Geophys Geo-Energy Geo-Resour (accepted to be published)

  • Gibson W (2011) Probabilistic methods for slope analysis and design. Aust Geomech 46(3):29

    Google Scholar 

  • Griffiths D (2001) Stability analysis of highly variable soils by elasto-plastic finite elements. In: Advanced numerical applications and plasticity in geomechanics. Springer, pp 159–229

  • Griffiths D, Fenton GA (2000) Influence of soil strength spatial variability on the stability of an undrained clay slope by finite elements. In: Slope stability 2000, pp 184–193

  • Griffiths DV, Fenton GA (2004) Probabilistic slope stability analysis by finite elements. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 130(5):507–518

    Google Scholar 

  • Griffiths D, Lane P (1999) Slope stability analysis by finite elements. Geotechnique 49(3):387–403

    Google Scholar 

  • Griffiths D, Marquez RJG (2007) Three-dimensional slope stability analysis by elasto-plastic finite elements. Geotechnique 57(6):537–546

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammah R, Yacoub T, Corkum B, Curran J (2005) A comparison of finite-element slope stability analysis with conventional limit-equilibrium investigation. Proceedings of the 58th Canadian Geotechnical and 6th Joint IAH-CNC and CGS groundwater specialty Conferences, Geosask 2005, 18–21 September, Saskatoon, Canada

  • Harr E (1987) Reliability based design in civil engineering. McGraw-Hill, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Hassan AM, Wolff TF (1999) Search algorithm for minimum reliability index of earth slopes. J Geotech Geoenviron Eng 125(4):301–308

    Google Scholar 

  • Hicks M, Chen J, Spencer W (2008) Influence of spatial variability on 3D slope failures. In: Proceedings of 6th international conference on computer simulation in risk analysis and hazard mitigation. Edited by CA Brebbia and E. Beriatos. Thessaly, Greece

  • Ho I-H (2015) Numerical study of slope-stabilizing piles in undrained clayey slopes with a weak thin layer. Int J Geomech 15(5):06014025

    Google Scholar 

  • Houlsby N, Houlsby G (2013) Statistical fitting of undrained strength data. Géotechnique 63(14):1253

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang J, Griffiths D (2010) One-dimensional consolidation theories for layered soil and coupled and uncoupled solutions by the finite-element method. Géotechnique 60(9):709–713

    Google Scholar 

  • Huang M, Jia C-Q (2009) Strength reduction FEM in stability analysis of soil slopes subjected to transient unsaturated seepage. Comput Geotech 36(1–2):93–101

    Google Scholar 

  • Hutton AC (2009) Geological setting of Australasian coal deposits. In: Kininmonth R, Baafi E (eds) Australasian Coal Mining Practice. The Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, Carlton, Australia

    Google Scholar 

  • Karami M, Tolooiyan A (2020) Investigating the elastoplasticity of an Australian soft rock based on laboratory test results. Eng Geol 276:105762

    Google Scholar 

  • Khandelwal M, Rai R, Shrivastva B (2015) Evaluation of dump slope stability of a coal mine using artificial neural network. Geomech Geophys Geo-Energy Geo-Resour 1(3–4):69–77

    Google Scholar 

  • Krahn J (2003) The 2001 RM hardy lecture: the limits of limit equilibrium analyses. Can Geotech J 40(3):643–660

    Google Scholar 

  • Liu S, Shao L, Li H (2015) Slope stability analysis using the limit equilibrium method and two finite element methods. Comput Geotech 63:291–298

    Google Scholar 

  • Matsui T, San K-C (1992) Finite element slope stability analysis by shear strength reduction technique. Soils Found 32(1):59–70

    Google Scholar 

  • Miller SM, Whyatt JK, McHugh EL (2004) Applications of the point estimation method for stochastic rock slope engineering. In: Gulf Rocks 2004, the 6th North America rock mechanics symposium (NARMS). American Rock Mechanics Association

  • Moni M, Sazzad M (2015) Stability analysis of slopes with surcharge by LEM and FEM. Int J Adv Struct Geotech Eng 4(4):216–225

    Google Scholar 

  • Nguyen V, Chowdhury R (1984) Probabilistic study of spoil pile stability in strip coal mines—two techniques compared. In: International journal of rock mechanics and mining sciences & geomechanics abstracts. Elsevier

  • Park H, West T (2001) Development of a probabilistic approach for rock wedge failure. Eng Geol 59(3–4):233–251

    Google Scholar 

  • PLAXIS (2018) Plaxis 2D and 3D, geotechnical finite element method solver. Plaxis B.V

  • Pollack A et al (2020) A spatial-statistical investigation of surface expressions associated with cyclic steaming in the Midway-Sunset Oil Field, California. Geomech Geophys Geo-Energy Geo-Resour 6(1):20

    Google Scholar 

  • Raghuvanshi TK (2017) Plane failure in rock slopes—a review on stability analysis techniques. J King Saud Univ Sci 31(1):101–109

    Google Scholar 

  • Read J, Stacey P (2009) Guidelines for Open Pit Slope Design. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, VC, Australia

    Google Scholar 

  • Rongved M, Holt RM, Larsen I (2019) The effect of heterogeneity on multiple fracture interaction and on the effect of a non-uniform perforation cluster distribution. Geomech Geophys Geo-Energy Geo-Resour 5:315–332

    Google Scholar 

  • Rosenblueth E (1975) Point estimates for probability moments. Proc Natl Acad Sci 72(10):3812–3814

    MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  • Sarkar S, Roy AK, Martha TR (2013) Soil depth estimation through soil-landscape modelling using regression kriging in a Himalayan terrain. Int J Geograph Inf Sci 27(12):2436–2454

    Google Scholar 

  • Schanz T, Vermeer P, Bonnier P (1999) The hardening soil model: formulation and verification. Beyond 2000 in computational geotechnics, pp 281–296

  • Scott B et al (2010) A review on existing opencast coal mining methods within Australia. J Min Sci 46(3):280–297

    Google Scholar 

  • Shaghaghi T, Ghadrdan M, Tolooiyan A (2020a) Design and optimisation of drainage systems for fractured slopes using the XFEM and FEM. Simul Model Pract Theory 103:102110

    Google Scholar 

  • Shaghaghi T, Ghadrdan M, Tolooiyan A (2020b) Effect of rock mass permeability and rock fracture leak-off coefficient on the pore water pressure distribution in a fractured slope. Simul Model Pract Theory 105:102167

    Google Scholar 

  • Simmons J (2013) Geotechnical support for open pit coal mining. Aust Geomech 48(1):85–100

    Google Scholar 

  • Stead D, Wolter A (2015) A critical review of rock slope failure mechanisms: the importance of structural geology. J Struct Geol 74:1–23

    Google Scholar 

  • Sundell J et al (2016) A probabilistic approach to soil layer and bedrock-level modeling for risk assessment of groundwater drawdown induced land subsidence. Eng Geol 203:126–139

    Google Scholar 

  • Tang Z (2018) Application of pressuremeter test (PMT) in Victorian brown coal open-pit mining. Monash University, Melbourne

    Google Scholar 

  • Tang Z, Tolooiyan A, Mackay R (2017) Unconfined expansion test (UET) for measuring the tensile strength of organic soft rock. Comput Geotech 82:54–66

    Google Scholar 

  • Tolooiyan A et al (2009) A comprehensive method for analyzing the effect of geotextile layers on embankment stability. Geotext Geomembr 27(5):399–405

    Google Scholar 

  • Tolooiyan A et al (2020) Investigation of an Australian soft rock permeability variation. Bull Eng Geol Environ 79:3087–3104

    Google Scholar 

  • Tuckey Z, Stead D, Eberhardt E (2013). Combining field methods and numerical modelling to address challenges in characterising discontinuity persistence and intact rock bridges in large open pit slopes. In: Proceedings of the 2013 international symposium on slope stability in open pit mining and civil engineering, Brisbane, Australia

  • Ugai K, Leshchinsky D (1995) Three-dimensional limit equilibrium and finite element analyses: a comparison of results. Soils Found 35(4):1–7

    Google Scholar 

  • Van Staveren M (2018) Uncertainty and ground conditions: a risk management approach. CRC Press, Boca Raton

    Google Scholar 

  • Vanwalleghem T et al (2010) Spatial variability of soil horizon depth in natural loess-derived soils. Geoderma 157(1–2):37–45

    Google Scholar 

  • Vekli M et al (2012) Experimental and numerical investigation of slope stabilization by stone columns. Nat Hazards 64(1):797–820

    Google Scholar 

  • Victoria SEC (1949) Three decades: the story of the State Electricity Commission of Victoria from its inception to December 1948. Hutchinson

  • Wang Y, Huang K, Cao Z (2013) Probabilistic identification of underground soil stratification using cone penetration tests. Can Geotechnical J 50(7):766–776

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang S et al (2019) Cliff face rock slope stability analysis based on unmanned arial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry. Geomech Geophys Geo-Energy Geo-Resour 5(4):333–344

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang P et al (2020) Classification and extent determination of rock slope using deep learning. Geomech Geophys Geo-Energy Geo-Resour 6(1):1–12

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolff TF (1996) Probabilistic slope stability in theory and practice. In: Uncertainty in the geologic environment: from theory to practice. ASCE

  • Yasin Q et al (2019) A new integrated workflow for improving permeability estimation in a highly heterogeneous reservoir of Sawan Gas Field from well logs data. Geomech Geophys Geo-Energy Geo-Resour 5(2):121–142

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Z, Huang M, Zhang M (2012) Deformation analysis of tunnel excavation below existing pipelines in multi-layered soils based on displacement controlled coupling numerical method. Int J Numer Anal Methods Geomech 36(11):1440–1460

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhao L, You G (2018) Stability study on the northern batter of MBC Open Pit using Plaxis 3D. Arab J Geosci 11(6):119

    Google Scholar 

  • Zhigang T et al (2020) Research on the safe mining depth of anti-dip bedding slope in Changshanhao mine. Geomech Geophys Geo-Energy Geo-Resour 6(2):1–20

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

Financial support for this research has been provided by Earth Resources Regulation of the Victorian State Government Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources (Grant No. Batter Stability Project). The first, second and third authors are funded by the Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) and the GHERG scholarship programme. The authors also wish to thank Mr. Mojtaba Karami for providing the results of geotechnical laboratory tests on coal and non-coal samples.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geotechnical and Hydrogeological Engineering Research Group (GHERG), Federation University Australia, Churchill, VIC, Australia

    Mohsen Ghadrdan, Ashley P. Dyson & Tahereh Shaghaghi

  2. School of Engineering, College of Sciences and Engineering, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia

    Ali Tolooiyan

Authors
  1. Mohsen Ghadrdan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ashley P. Dyson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Tahereh Shaghaghi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Ali Tolooiyan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ali Tolooiyan.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ghadrdan, M., Dyson, A.P., Shaghaghi, T. et al. Slope stability analysis using deterministic and probabilistic approaches for poorly defined stratigraphies. Geomech. Geophys. Geo-energ. Geo-resour. 7, 4 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40948-020-00189-3

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40948-020-00189-3

Keywords

Search

Navigation