Abstract
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is recognized as an endemic disease in Thailand and throughout other countries in Southeast Asia. The underreporting of FMD outbreaks has affected the true status of the disease. This study aimed to determine the number of dairy farms in Chiang Mai that had experienced FMD outbreaks (FMD outbreak farm) during 2015–2016 using capture-recapture (CR) methods. Two independent FMD outbreak data sources including data from the livestock authorities and survey questionnaires were analyzed using Chapman estimator and Chao estimator. Results showed that the estimated number of FMD outbreak farms was 264 (95% CI = 250, 277) and 273 (95% CI = 259, 292) farms based on the Chapman estimator and Chao estimator, respectively. The estimated prevalence of FMD corresponding to the Chapman estimator was lower than the Chao estimator. The active approach of the survey method offered a higher degree of sensitivity compared to the passive method used by the livestock authorities. Estimations from the CR method provided an upper bound for the true number of outbreak farms. This study demonstrated the use of the CR method to estimate the true status of FMD outbreaks. Our proposed approach can potentially be used as a tool to enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of established monitoring and surveillance systems.
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Acknowledgments
We would also like to acknowledge all of the participating dairy cooperatives located in Chiang Mai and the Chiang Mai Provincial Livestock Office for providing relevant data. Furthermore, we gratefully acknowledge all dairy farmers who were willing to be interviewed as part of this study. Additionally, we gratefully recognize all participants in this study for their involvement and for providing us with relevant field data. In addition, our sincere appreciation is offered to Professor Karl Hans Zessin for his valuable guidance.
Funding
This study received financial support from the Participatory One Health Disease Detection (PODD), Veterinary Public Health and Food Safety Centre for the Asia Pacific, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Thailand. We express our sincere gratitude for the financial support and the highly valuable technical and logistical support we received from this agency.
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The questionnaire survey and research proposal of this study received approval from the Ethical Review Committee. Furthermore, Chiang Mai University Research Ethics Committee has reviewed and approved the research proposal based on international guidelines for human research protection (COA No. 008/60). The questionnaire survey participants were dairy farmers who willingly gave their informed consent to participate in the interviews. No samples were obtained from animals during the course of this research study.
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Sansamur, C., Wiratsudakul, A., Charoenpanyanet, A. et al. Estimating the number of farms experienced foot and mouth disease outbreaks using capture-recapture methods. Trop Anim Health Prod 53, 12 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11250-020-02452-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11250-020-02452-x