Elsevier

Energy Strategy Reviews

Volume 32, November 2020, 100582
Energy Strategy Reviews

Scenario analysis and sensitivity exploration of the MEDEAS Europe energy-economy-environment model

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.100582Get rights and content
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Highlights

  • Uncertainty assessment is essential for using models for policy-making.

  • Uncertainties in MEDEAS model are assessed running Monte Carlo simulations.

  • Parameters contribution to output uncertainties are ranked.

  • Output uncertainties are large and increase over time.

  • Households transport, energy efficiency and non-energy uses impact most outputs.

Abstract

Today's decision-makers rely heavily on Integrated Assessment Models to guide the decarbonisation of the energy system. Uncertainty is embedded in the assumptions these models are built upon. Unless those uncertainties are adequately assessed, using Integrated Assessment Models for policy design is unadvised. In this work we run Monte Carlo simulations with the MEDEAS model at European Union scale to assess how the uncertainties on the main drivers of the transition affect key socioeconomic and environmental indicators. In addition, One-at-a-time sensitivity exploration is performed to grade the contribution of a set of model parameters to the uncertainty in the same key indicators. The combination of the uncertainties in the model drivers magnify the uncertainty in the model outputs, which widens over time. Parameters affecting sectorial and households' energy efficiency and households' transport energy use ranked amongst the most impacting ones on simulation results.

Keywords

Energy transition
Sustainability
Python
Vensim®
Factor prioritization
Euclidean distance
Sensitivity analysis
Uncertainty analysis
Policy-making
Integrated assessment models

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1

Present address: Departament d’Enginyeria Mecànica, Universitat Rovira i Virgili (URV). Campus Sescelades, Avinguda dels Països Catalans, 26 - 43007 Tarragona, Spain. [email protected]