Simulation of stakeholders’ consensus on organizational technology acceptance (case study: Internet of Things)

In the organizational technology acceptance (TA) decision-making process, stakeholders have many divergence opinions. Sometimes, an opposing stakeholder of a decision can stop the whole process of decision-making. In such a case, consensus may take a long time followed by a high risk. The purpose of this study is twofold. First, to find the best model with the least prediction error for the simulation of the consensus process in TA decisions. Second, to investigate the time required for the consensus process to yield the TA decision in different scenarios and to propose solutions to reduce the required time in a case study.

This study uses real-world data containing 1,186 actual observations. Stakeholders are decision-maker agents, and the observations are derived from survey data and used for simulation. Data were obtained from 126 experts in the Iranian rail freight industry. Opinion dynamics theory was used for agent-based simulation of stakeholders’ behavior. The agents interacted over time and their effects on other agents’ opinions were investigated.

The results illustrate an appropriate opinion changing model, a data-gathering method and a simulation scenario for TA consensus. The suitable model was selected after examining the advantages and disadvantages of and comparing the prediction results for different models with the real database of opinions. To reduce the consensus process time, the results suggest gathering the team members and networking with some leaders as advocators. A large number of advocators with high acceptability and continuous exchanging messages with other agents can improve the acceptance rate and have the most significant impact on other stakeholders’ opinions.

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, previous studies simulate individual TA processes. However, there is a difference between the individual TA and the organizational TA. The organizational TA requires the simultaneous decision-making of different stakeholders. In this research, the organizational TA was investigated.