Abstract
The pre-summer rainy season (PSRS; April–June) is the period of most frequent strong precipitation in South China (SC). Persistent strong precipitation events (PSPEs) can cause greater loss of life and property than short-lived strong precipitation. This paper investigates extended-range signals near the tropopause preceding two persistent positive climatological intraseasonal oscillations (PPCISOs) in precipitation corresponding to two climatological PSPEs in SC during the PSRS, using the CISO analysis of isentropic potential vorticity (IPV). It is found that precursor signals can be better seen in IPV CISOs than in unfiltered IPV. The first rainfall PPCISO is caused by an eastward propagation of high-IPV CISOs along the dynamical tropopause originating from the Arctic region and west of the Tibetan Plateau. The second is the most persistent (13 days). Its high-IPV CISOs originate over the Arctic region and the tropical monsoon region, respectively, 20 or more days prior to the rainfall CISO peak. The west of the Tibetan Plateau and the northern region of the East Asian westerly jet near the tropopause are two transit points where extratropical high-IPV CISOs strengthen and then change their propagation direction. The southward high-IPV CISOs and the northward positive IPV CISO caused by the monsoon begin to interact about 10 days prior to rainfall peak. Since then, the interaction leads a narrow meridional positive PV channel on the inclined 345 K isentropic surface. A specific CISO pattern, characterized by an elongated high-IPV CISO isolated by three negative IPV CISOs (the South Asian, the Okhotsk and the western Pacific subtropical highs), is responsible for the long duration of the second rainfall PPCISO.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Baldwin MP, Stephenson DB, Thompson DWJ et al (2003) Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science 301(5633):636–640
Blackmon ML (1976) A climatological spectral study of the 500 mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere. J Atmos Sci 33:1607–1623. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033<1607:ACSSOT>2.0.CO;2
Chen Y, Zhai PM (2013) Two types of typical circulation pattern for persistent extreme precipitation in Central-Eastern China. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 140:1467–1478. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2231
Chen LX, Zhu QG, Luo HB, He JH, Dong M, Feng ZQ (1991) East Asia monsoon (in Chinese). China Meteorological Press, Beijing, p 362
Chi YZ, He JH, Wu ZW (2005) Features analysis of the different precipitation periods in the pre-flood season in South China. J Nanjing Inst Meteorol (in Chinese) 28:163–171
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ, Berrisford P, Poli P, Kobayashi S, Bechtold P (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597
Ding YH (1992) Summer monsoon rainfall in China. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 70:373–396
Ding YH (2004) Seasonal march of the East Asian summer monsoon. The East Asian Monsoon, Chang CP, Eds, World Scientific Publisher, 3–53
Ding YH (2007) The variability of the Asian summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 85B:21–54
Ding YH, Chan JCL (2005) The East Asian summer monsoon: an overview. Meteorol Atmos Phys 89:117–142. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-005-0125-z
Ding F, Li C (2017) Subtropical westerly jet waveguide and winter persistent heavy rainfall in south China. J Geophys Res: Atmos 122:7385–7400
Ding YH, Liu YJ (2001) Onset and the evolution of the summer monsoon over the South China Sea during the SCSMEX field experiment in 1998. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 79:255–276
Ding YH, Ma XQ (2007) Analysis of isentropic potential vorticity for a strong cold wave in 2004/2005 winter. Acta Meteorol Sin (in Chinese) 65:695–707
Dong W, Zhao L, Zhou S, Shen X (2020) A Synergistic effect of blockings on a persistent strong cold surge in East Asia in January 2018. Atmosphere 11:215. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11020215
Enomoto T, Hoskins BJ, Matsuda Y (2003) The formation mechanism of the Bonin high in August. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 129:157–178
Ferranti L, Palmer TN, Molteni F, Klinker E (1990) Tropical-extratropical interaction associated with the 30–60 day oscillation and its impact on medium and extended range prediction. J Atmos Sci 47(18):2177–2199
Fukutomi Y, Yasunari T (1999) 10–25-day intraseasonal variations of convection and circulation over East Asia and western North Pacific during early summer. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 77:753–769
Goswami BN, Xavier PK (2003) Potential predictability and extended range prediction of Indian summer monsoon breaks. Geophys Res Lett 30(18):1966. https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL017810
Hong X, Lu R (2016) The meridional displacement of the summer Asian jet, Silk Road pattern, and tropical SST anomalies. J Clim 29:3753–3766. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0541.1
Hoskins BJ (1997) A potential vorticity view of synoptic development. Meteorol Appl 4:325–334
Hoskins BJ, McIntyre ME, Robertson AW (1985) On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity maps. Quart J R Meteorol Soc 111:877–946. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49711147002
Hsu PC, Li T (2011) Interactions between boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations and synoptic-scale disturbances over the western North Pacific. Part II: apparent heat and moisture sources and eddy momentum transport. J Clim 24:942–961. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3834.1
Hsu HH, Hoskins BJ, Jin FF (1990) The 1985/86 Intraseasonal oscillation and the role of the extratropics. J Atmos Sci 47:823–839. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<0823:TIOATR>2.0.CO;2
Huang G (2004) An index measuring the interannual variation of the East Asian summer monsoon—the EAP index. Adv Atmos Sci 21(1):41–52
Huang RH, Li WJ (1987) Influence of heat source anomaly over the tropical western Pacific on the subtropical high over East Asia. Proc International Conference on the General Circulation of East Asia, Chengdu, China, 40–51
Kiladis GN, Weickmann KM (1992a) Circulation anomalies associated with tropical convection during northern winter. Mon Weather Rev 120:1900–1923. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<1900:CAAWTC>2.0.CO;2
Kiladis GN, Weickmann KM (1992b) Extratropical forcing of tropical Pacific convection during northern winter. Mon Weather Rev 120:1924–1938. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<1924:EFOTPC>2.0.CO;2
Knuston TR, Weickmann KM (1987) 30–60-day atmospheric oscillation: composite life cycles of convection and circulation anomalies. Mon Weather Rev 115:1407–1436. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<1407:DAOCLC>2.0.CO;2
Lau KM, Yang S (1997) Climatology and interannual variability of the southeast Asian summer monsoon. Adv Atmos Sci 14:141–162. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-997-0016-y
Li T (2014) Recent advance in understanding the dynamics of the Madden–Julian oscillation. J Meteorol Res 28:1–33. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-014-3087-6
Liang P, Ding YH (2013) Climate intraseasonal oscillation of heavy rainfall process and its application in extend-range forecast. Plateau Meteorol (in Chinese) 32:1329–1338
Lin AL, Li T, Fu XH et al (2011) Effects of air-sea coupling on the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations over the tropical Indian Ocean. Clim Dyn 37:2303–2322. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-010-0943-7
Li RCY, Wen Z (2015) Multiscale control of summertime persistent heavy precipitation events over South China in association with synoptic, intraseasonal, and low-frequency background. Clim Dyn 45(3–4):1–15
Luo JL, Tian WS, Zhang PQ, Hu J, Xie F (2012) Analysis of the anomalous signals around the tropopause and in the stratosphere before the Meiyu onset. Acta Meteorol Sin (in Chinese) 70(4):655–669. https://doi.org/10.11676/qxxb2012.053
Lu R, Oh JH, Kim BJ (2002) A teleconnection pattern in upper-level meridional wind over the North African and Eurasian continent in summer. Tellus 54A:44–55. https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0870.2002.00248.x
Martius O, Zenklusen E, Schwierz C, Davies HC (2006) Episodes of Alpine heavy precipitation with an overlying elongated stratospheric intrusion: a climatology. Int J Climatol 26:1149–1164
Martius O, Schwierz C, Davies HC (2008a) Far-upstream precursors of heavy precipitation events on the alpine south-side. Q J R Meteorol Soc 134:417–442
Martius O, Schwierz C, Sprenger M (2008b) Dynamical tropopause variability and potential vorticity streamers in the Northern Hemisphere: a climatological analysis. Adv Atmos Sci 25(3):367–380
Massacand AC, Wernli H, Davies HC (1998) Heavy precipitation on the Alpine southside: An upper-level precursor. Geophys Res Lett 25(9):1435–1438
Massacand AC, Wernli H, Davies HC (2001) Influence of upstream diabatic heating upon an Alpine event of heavy precipitation. Mon Weather Rev 129(11):2822–2828
Nitta T (1987) Convective activities in the tropical western Pacific and their impacts on the Northern Hemisphere summer circulation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 65:373–390
Nogués-Paegle J, Mo KC, Paegle J (1998) Predictability of the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis model during austral summer. Mon Weather Rev 126:3135–3152. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1998)126<3135:POTNNR>2.0.CO;2
Reynolds RW, Smith TM, Liu C, Chelton DB, Casey KS, Schlax MG (2007) Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim 20(22):5473–5496
Simmons AJ, Gibson JK (2000) The ERA-40 project plan. ERA-40 Project Report Series No. 1, ECMWF, Reading UK, pp 63. https://mms.dkrz.de/pdf/klimadaten/projects/era40/e40Project.pdf
Sun DZ, Lindzen RS (1994) A PV view of the zonal mean distribution of temperature and wind in the extratropical troposphere. J Atmos Sci 51:757–772. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1994)051<0757:APVOTZ>2.0.CO;2
Tanaka M (1994) The onset and retreat dates of the austral summer monsoon over Indonesia, Australia, and New Guinea. J Meteor Soc Jpn 72:255–266
Tao SY (1980) The heavy rain in China (in Chinese). Science Press, Beijing, p 225
Tao SY, Chen LX (1987) A review of recent research on the East Asian summer monsoon in China. Monsoon Meteorology, eds Chang CP and Krishnamurti TN, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 60–92
Wang B, Ho L (2002) Rainy season of the Asian-Pacific summer monsoon. J Clim 15:386–398. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015,0386:RSOTAP.2.0.CO;2
Wang B, Xu XH (1997) Northern hemisphere summer monsoon singularities and climatological intraseasonal oscillation. J Clim 10:1071–1085. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1071:NHSMSA>2.0.CO;2
Yang S, Lau KM, Yoo SH, Kinter JL, Miyakoda K, Ho CH (2004) Upstream subtropical signals preceding the Asian summer monsoon circulation. J Clim 17:4213–4229. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3192.1
Yang J, Wang B, Wang B, Li L (2009) The East Asia-Western North Pacific boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation simulated in GAMIL 1.1.1. Adv Atmos Sci 26:480–492
Yao XP, Wu GX, Zhao BK, Yu YB, Yang GM (2007) Research on the dry intrusion accompanying the low vortex precipitation. Sci Chin Ser D Earth Sci 50:1396–1408
Zhang KS (1987) The 40–50 day low-frequency oscillation of the zonal mean flow and its destabilizing effect. Chin J Atmos Sci (in Chinese) 11:227–236
Zhang J, Li L, Zhou TJ, Xin XG (2013) Evaluation of spring persistent rainfall over East Asia in CMIP3/CMIP5 atmospheric AGCM simulations. Adv Atmos Sci 30(6):1587–1600. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-013-2139-7
Zhao L, Ding YH (2008) Sources and transfer of high isentropic potential vorticity during Meiyu period. J Appl Meteor Sci (in Chinese) 19:697–709
Zhao L, Ding YH (2009) Potential vorticity analysis of cold air activities during the East Asian summer monsoon. Chin J Atmos Sci (in Chinese) 33:359–374
Zhao L, Wang JS (2014) Robust response of the East Asian monsoon rainband to solar variability. J Clim 21:3043–3051. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00482.1
Zhao L, Wang JS, Zhao HJ (2012) Signature of the solar cycle on decadal variability in monsoon precipitation over China. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 90:1–9. https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.2012-101
Zheng B, Liang JY, Lin AL, Li CH, Gu DJ (2006) Frontal rain and summer monsoon rain during pre-rainy season in South China. Part I: determination of the division dates. Chin J Atmos Sci (in Chinese) 30:1207–1216
Zhu QG, He JH (1995) Extropical low-frequency circulation systems and the East Asian monsoon low-frequency variation and anomalies. Adv Earth Sci (in Chinese) 10:304–305
Acknowledgements
We thank the National Meteorological Information Center of China for the rainfall dataset and ECMWF for the PV, wind, and potential temperature data. The rainfall dataset in this study was obtained from the National Meteorological Information Center of China (https://data.cma.cn/site/index.html). ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalysis data can be obtained from the ECMWF public data sets web interface (https://apps.ecmwf.int/datasets/). NOAA High Resolution SST data are provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSL, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.noaa.oisst.v2.highres.html. This research was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2018YFA0606203) and the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDA20060501, XDA20100304 and XDA17010105).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Zhao, L., Liu, H., Hu, Y. et al. Extratropical extended-range precursors near the tropopause preceding persistent strong precipitation in South China: a climatology. Clim Dyn 55, 3133–3150 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05437-6
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05437-6