Abstract
This study explores the relative changes and future projections of temperature and precipitation for baseline (1976–2005) and future (2006–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) periods for the Bajaur, Mohmand, and Khyber districts of Pakistan situated in the Hindu Kush region. Data from 14 GCMs (out of which five GCMs were selected based on evaluation and validation) and three RCMs were downscaled and bias corrected using the quantile delta mapping (QDM) method for GCMs and the best easy systemic (BES) method for RCMs. The future extremes were projected by using the standard indices from the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). Uncertainty in the data was analysed by a probabilistic distribution function (PDF), boxplots, and standard deviation. For RCP4.5, the GCM and RCM projections show an increase in the average maximum temperature of 0.98 °C for 2006–2040, 1.89 °C and 2.04 °C for 2041–2070, and 2.25 °C and 2.56 °C for 2071–2100, respectively, while the increase is almost double for RCP8.5 during the last period (2071–2099) over the whole study area. The percent increase in precipitation over the whole study area from GCMs and RCMs for RCP4.5 is 10.00–17.00% and 21.14–34.47%, while for RCP8.5, it is 11.73–22.12% and 16.17–31.50%, respectively. In RCM projections for RCP4.5, the Khyber district will experience drier conditions in mid-century, while for GCMs (RCP4.5), the same conditions are projected through the end of the century. In terms of extreme events, warm temperature extremes and extreme precipitation events show an increasing trend accompanied by a decrease in cold extremes over all regions. Hence, it is concluded that warm and wet conditions are projected to prevail in all regions. However, GCM data depict less uncertainty compared with RCM data, and while models show less error for the baseline period, the error increases slightly for the future periods. Thus, this study provides research findings along with policy recommendations essential to combat the potential impacts of projected changes in the regional climate.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Akhtar M, Ahmad N, Booij MJ (2008) The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush-Karakorum-Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios. J Hydrol 355:148–163. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.015
Ali S, Eum HI, Cho J, Dan L, Khan F, Dairaku K, Shrestha ML, Hwang S, Nasim W, Khan IA, Fahad S (2019) Assessment of climate extremes in future projections downscaled by multiple statistical downscaling methods over Pakistan. Atmos Res 222:114–133
Ali S, Kiani RS, Reboita MS, Dan L, Eum HI, Cho J et al (2020) Identifying hotspots cities vulnerable to climate change in Pakistan under CMIP5 climate projections. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6638
Ali S, Li D, Congbin F, Khan F (2015) Twenty first century climatic and ydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan. Environ Res Lett 10:014007
Almazroui M (2012) Dynamical downsca4ling of rainfall and temperature over the Arabian Peninsula using RegCM4. Clim Res 52:49–62
Amin A, Nasim W, Mubeen M, Kazmi DH, Line Z, Wahid A, Sultana SR, Gibbs J, Fahad S (2017) Comparison of future and base precipitation anomalies by SimCLIM statistical projection through ensemble approach in Pakistan. Atmos Res 194:214–225
Ashfaq M, Rastogi D, Mei R, Touma D, Leung LR (2017) Sources of errors in the simulation of south Asian summer monsoon in the CMIP5 GCMs. Clim Dyn 49(1-2):193–223
Asmat U, Athar H (2017) Run-based multi-model interannual variability assessment of precipitation and temperature over Pakistan using two IPCC AR4-based AOGCMs. Theor Appl Climatol 127:1–16
Barnett TP, Adam JC, Lettenmaier DP (2005) Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions. Nature 438(7066):303–309
Cannon AJ, Sobie SR, Murdock TQ (2015) Bias correction of GCM precipitation by quantile mapping: how well do methods preserve changes in quantiles and extremes? Journal of Climatology 28: 6938–6959. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00754.1
Chaudhary QZ (2017) Climate Change Profile of Pakistan. Asian Development Bank
Clarke L, Edmonds J, Jacoby H, Pitcher H, Reilly J, Richels R (2007) Scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations. Subreport 18 2.1a of synthesis and assessment product 2.1. (A report by the climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change research Washington)
Du M, Kawashima S, Yonemura S, Zhang X, Chen S (2004) Mutual influence between human activities and climate change in the Tibetan Plateau during recent years. Glob Planet Chang 41(3-4):241–249
Dyurgerov MB, Meier MF (2005) Glaciers and the changing Earth system: a 2004 snapshot, vol 58. Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder
Eum H-I, Cannon AJ (2016) Intercomparison of projected changes in climate extremes for South Korea: application of trend preserving statistical downscaling methods to the CMP5 ensemble. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4924
Farrukh, R. (2014). Water balance: achieving sustainable development through a water assessment and management plan. Asian Development Bank
Forsythe N, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ, Archer DR (2012) Assessment of runoff sensitivity in the Upper Indus Basin to interannual climate variability and potential change using MODIS satellite data products. Mt Res Dev 32(1):16–30
Fowler HJ, Archer DR (2006) Conflicting signals of climatic change in the Upper Indus Basin. J Clim 19(17):4276–4293
Fu C, Jiang Z, Guan Z, He J, Xu Z (2008). Regional Climate Studies of China. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Giorgetta MA, Jungclaus J, Reick CH, Legutke S, Bader J, Böttinger M, ... & Glushak K (2013) Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI‐ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. J Adv Model 5(3):572–597
Hazeleger W, Wang X, Severijns C, Ştefănescu S, Bintanja R, Sterl, A, ... & Van Noije T (2012) EC-Earth V2. 2: description and validation of a new seamless earth system prediction model. Climate dynamics 39(11):2611–2629
IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM. (Eds.), Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York
IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] 2007 Climate Change 2007: the physical sciences basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-frontmatter.pdf; accessed on 27 December 2011.
Kazmi DH, Li J, Rasul G, Tong J, Ali G, Cheema SB, Liu L, Gemmer M and Fischer T (2015) Statistical downscaling and future scenario generation of temperatures for Pakistan Region. Theor Appl Climatol 120:341–350
Lutz AF, ter Maat HW, Biemans H, Shrestha AB, Wester P, Immerzeel WW (2016) Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach. Int J Climatol 36(12):3988–4005
Mahmood R, Babel MS, Shaofeng JIA (2015) Assessment of temporal and spatial changes of future climate in the Jhelum river basin, Pakistan and India. Weather Clim Extremes 10:40–55
McCoy D, Hoskins B (2014) The science of anthropogenic climate change: what every doctor should know. bmj 349:5178
Mcgregor JL, Dix MR (2001) The CSIRO conformal-cubic atmospheric GCM. In IUTAM symposium on advances in mathematical modelling of atmosphere and ocean dynamics. Springer, Dordrecht, p 197–202
Paeth H, Manning B (2012) On the added value of regional climate modeling in climate change assessment. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1517-7
Rehman N, Adnan M, Ali S (2018) Assessment of CMIP5 climate models over South Asia and climate change projections over Pakistan under representative concentration pathways. Int J Global Warm 16:381–415
Riahi K, Grübler A, Nakicenovi N (2007) Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technol Forecast Soc Change 74: 887–935
Samuelsson P, Jones CG, Willén U, Ullerstig A, Gollvik S, Hansson U, Jansson C, Kjellström E, Nikulin G, Wyser K (2011) The Rossby CentreRegional Climate model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus A 63:4–23
Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zhang X, Zwiers FW, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 1. Model evaluation in the present climate. J Geophys Res 118:1716–1733
Syed FS, Waheed I, Ahsan ABS, Rasul G (2014) Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change. Clim Dyn 42:2079–2097
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA, (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1
Wilby RL, Wigley TML (2000) Precipitation predictors for downscaling: observed and general circulation model relationships. Int J Climatol 20:641–661
Wonnacott TH, Wonnacott, RJ (1972) Introduction statistics for Business and Economics. John Wiley and Sons
Wood AW, Maurer EP, Kumar A, Lettenmaier DP (2002) Long-range experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States. J Geophys Res Atmos 107:4429–4443
Woodcock F, Engel C (2005) Operational consensus forecasts. Weather and forecasting 20(1):101–111
Acknowledgements
We acknowledge APN Project (CRRP2018-04MY-Ali), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Federally Administered Tribal Areas Water Resources Development Project (FWRDP), and Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) for supporting and providing us the opportunity to conduct this study. We also acknowledge the travel support of Asian Network on Climate Science and Technology (ANCST) and Asia-Pacific Network for Global Change Research (APN) for the presentation of this study in the workshop on Status of Climate Science and Technology in Asia for IPCC AR6 15-16 Nov 2018, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding authors
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Ali, S., Saeed, A., Kiani, R.S. et al. Future climatic changes, extreme events, related uncertainties, and policy recommendations in the Hindu Kush sub-regions of Pakistan. Theor Appl Climatol 143, 193–209 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03399-7
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03399-7