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Global sensitivity analysis on a numerical model of seawater intrusion and its implications for coastal aquifer management: a case study in Dagu River Basin, Jiaozhou Bay, China

Analyse de sensibilité globale d’un modèle numérique d’intrusion saline et ses implications Sur la gestion des aquifères côtiers: cas d’étude du bassin de la rivière Dagu, Baie de Jiaozhou, Chine

Análisis de sensibilidad global en un modelo numérico de intrusión de agua de mar y sus implicancias para la gestión de acuíferos costeros: un estudio de caso en la cuenca del río Dagu, Bahía de Jiaozhou (China)

海水入侵数值模型全局敏感性分析及其对滨海含水层管理的启示:以中国的胶州湾大沽河流域为例

Análise de sensibilidade global em um modelo numérico para intrusões de água do mar e suas implicações no gerenciamento do aquífero costeiro: um estudo de caso na Bacia do Rio Dagu, Baía de Jiaozhou, China

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Abstract

Seawater intrusion (SWI) has triggered an accelerating process of freshwater contamination and significantly affected the soil fertility and local groundwater supply in the coastal area of Jiaozhou Bay, Shandong Province, China. This study establishes a three-dimensional numerical model based on SEAWAT code to simulate transient regional SWI to coastal aquifers in Dagu River Basin (DRB) adjacent to Jiaozhou Bay. The hydrogeological parameters in the SEAWAT model are calibrated and validated with the observed data of groundwater level and chloride (Cl−) concentration from 1 January 2010 to 1 June 2018. Also, global sensitivity analysis is used to evaluate the impacts of hydrogeological parameters (aquifer hydraulic conductivity and specific yield), along with sources/sinks consisting of recharge from precipitation infiltration and groundwater abstraction, on the SWI model. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the progression of SWI is sensitive to the groundwater recharge from precipitation infiltration and the groundwater abstraction in the study area, while the hydraulic conductivity is of secondary importance. Furthermore, the baseline SWI model is applied to predict the extent of SWI under different scenarios considering the possible future precipitation and groundwater abstraction. It is shown that increased recharge and reduced groundwater abstraction could effectively lessen the extent of future SWI. As a case study, the research efforts on the regional SWI model are of critical importance for investigating the occurrence of SWI, identifying the factors most influential on the SWI process, and providing useful predictive information for SWI management in the DRB aquifer of Jiaozhou Bay.

Résumé

L’intrusion d’eau de mer (IEM) a déclenché un processus accéléré de contamination des eaux et a affecté de manière significative la fertilité des sols et l’alimentation en eau de la zone côtière de la baie de Jiaozhou, Province de Shandong, Chine. Cette étude établit un modèle numérique 3D basé sur le code SEAWAT pour simuler l’intrusion saline régionale transitoire de l’aquifère côtier du bassin de la rivière Dagu (BRD) près de la baie de Jiaozhou. Les paramètres hydrogéologiques dans le modèle SEAWAT ont été calibrés et validés avec des données observées de niveau d’eau souterraine et concentration en chlorure (Cl−) du 1er janvier 2010 au 1er juin 2018. De plus, l’analyse de sensibilité globale a été utilisée pour évaluer l’impact des paramètres hydrogéologiques (conductivité hydraulique et rendement spécifique) accompagnant les apports/pertes dans le modèle IEM constitués par la recharge par infiltration des précipitations et pompage des eaux souterraines. Les résultats de l’analyse de sensibilité indiquent que la progression de l’intrusion saline est sensible à la recharge de l’aquifère par infiltration des pluies et les pompages en nappes dans la zone d’étude, alors que la conductivité hydraulique est de moindre importance. De plus, le modèle IEM de base est utilisé pour prédire l’extension de l’intrusion saline pour différents scenarios considérant de possibles futurs précipitations et pompages. Il est montré qu’une augmentation de la recharge et réduction des prélèvements peut effectivement diminuer l’extension future de l’IEM. En tant que cas d’étude, les efforts de recherche sur la modélisation régionale de l’intrusion saline sont d’une grande importance pour explorer l’apparition de l’IEM, identifier les facteurs les plus influents sur les processus d’IEM, et apporter des informations prédictives intéressantes pour la gestion de l’IEM dans l’aquifère BRD de la baie de Jiaozhou.

Resumen

La intrusión de agua de mar (SWI) desencadenó un proceso acelerado de contaminación del agua dulce y afectó considerablemente a la fertilidad del suelo y al suministro local de aguas subterráneas en la zona costera de la bahía de Jiaozhou, en la provincia de Shandong (China). Este estudio establece un modelo numérico tridimensional basado en el código SEAWAT para simular la SWI regional transitoria en los acuíferos costeros de la cuenca del río Dagu (DRB) adyacente a la bahía de Jiaozhou. Los parámetros hidrogeológicos del modelo SEAWAT se calibran y validan con los datos observados del nivel de las aguas subterráneas y la concentración de cloruro (Cl−) desde el 1 de enero de 2010 hasta el 1 de junio de 2018. Además, se utiliza el análisis de sensibilidad global para evaluar los efectos de los parámetros hidrogeológicos (conductividad hidráulica del acuífero y almacenamiento específico), junto con las fuentes y sumideros consistentes en la recarga por infiltración de las precipitaciones y la extracción de aguas subterráneas, en el modelo SEAWAT. Los resultados del análisis de sensibilidad indican que la progresión de la SWI es sensible a la recarga de aguas subterráneas por la infiltración de las precipitaciones y la extracción de aguas subterráneas en la zona de estudio, mientras que la conductividad hidráulica tiene una importancia secundaria. Además, el modelo de SWI de línea de base se aplica para predecir su amplitud en diferentes escenarios, teniendo en cuenta las posibles precipitaciones y la extracción de aguas subterráneas en el futuro. Se demuestra que el aumento de la recarga y la reducción de la extracción de aguas subterráneas podrían disminuir efectivamente la amplitud de la SWI futura. Como estudio de caso, los esfuerzos de investigación del modelo regional son de importancia crítica para investigar la ocurrencia de SWI, identificar los factores más influyentes en el proceso y proporcionar información predictiva útil para la gestión de SWI en el acuífero DRB de la Bahía de Jiaozhou.

摘要

海水入侵(SWI)引发了淡水污染的加速过程, 并严重影响了山东胶州湾沿岸地区的土壤肥力和地下水供给。本研究基于SEAWAT程序建立一个三维SWI数值模型以模拟胶州湾附近大沽河流域(DRB)滨海含水层的非稳定SWI过程。利用2010年1月1日至2018年6月1日的地下水位和氯离子(Cl−)浓度观测数据, 对SEAWAT模型中的水文地质参数进行校准和验证。同时, 利用全局敏感性分析来评估水文地质参数(含水层渗透系数和给水度)以及由降水入渗补给和地下水开采组成的源汇项对SWI模型的影响。敏感性分析结果表明, SWI的发展对降水入渗补给和地下水开采最为敏感, 而渗透系数的影响则相对次要。此外, 考虑到未来可能的降水量和地下水开采量, 应用基准SWI模型来预测不同情景下SWI的程度。研究结果表明, 增加降水补给量和减少地下水开采量可以有效地降低未来SWI的范围。作为一个研究实例, 该区域SWI模型研究对于探究胶州湾DRB含水层中SWI的发生、识别SWI的主要影响因素以及为SWI管理提供有用的预测信息具有重要意义。

Resumo

A intrusão de água do mar (IAM) tem desencadeado um processo acelerado de contaminação de água doce e afetado significativamente a fertilidade do solo e o abastecimento de água subterrânea na área costeira da Baía de Jiaozhou, província de Shandong, China. Este estudo estabelece um modelo tridimensional baseado no código SEAWAT para simular a IAM transitória regional no aquífero costeiro na Bacia do Rio Dagu (BRD) adjacente a Baía de Jiaozhou. Os parâmetros hidrogeológicos no modelo SEAWAT foram calibrados e validados com os dados de observação do nível da água subterrânea e a concentração de cloreto (Cl−) do dia 1 de janeiro 2010 ao dia 1 de junho de 2018. E ainda, análise de sensibilidade é usada para avaliar os impactos dos parâmetros hidrogeológicos (condutividade hidráulica e coeficiente de permeabilidade), junto as fontes/sumidouros que constituem a recarga por infiltração da precipitação e a captação de água subterrânea. Os resultados da análise de sensibilidade indicam que a progressão de IAM é sensível à recarga de água subterrânea a partir da infiltração da precipitação e a captação de água subterrânea na área de estudo, enquanto que a condutividade hidráulica possui importância secundária. Além disso, a linha de base do modelo de IAM é aplicado para prever a extensão da IAM em diferentes cenários considerando possível precipitação e captação de água subterrânea futura. Isto ilustra que o aumento de recarga e redução de captação de água subterrânea pode efetivamente diminuir a futura extensão da IAM. Como um estudo de caso, os esforços da pesquisa no modelo regional da IAM são de importância crucial para a investigação da ocorrência da IAM, identificando os fatores que mais influenciam no processo de IAM, e fornecendo informações de previsões úteis para o gerenciamento da IAM no aquífero BRD na Baía de Jiaozhou.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are sincerely grateful to the editor Prof. Maria-Theresia Schafmeister, and the anonymous associate editor and two reviewers, whose constructive comments helped to improve the manuscript significantly.

Funding

This research is financially supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan of China (2016YFC0402807), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41730856 and 41772254), and the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (14380105).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Nanjing University, Nanjing, 210023, China

    Di Zhang, Jianfeng Wu & Jichun Wu

  2. School of Earth Sciences and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China

    Yun Yang

  3. College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, 266100, China

    Xilai Zheng & Guanqun Liu

  4. National Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, 210029, China

    Xiaomin Sun & Jin Lin

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  1. Di Zhang
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Zhang, D., Yang, Y., Wu, J. et al. Global sensitivity analysis on a numerical model of seawater intrusion and its implications for coastal aquifer management: a case study in Dagu River Basin, Jiaozhou Bay, China. Hydrogeol J 28, 2543–2557 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02219-6

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