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Influence of air temperature and precipitation on the risk of forest fires in Serbia

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Abstract

Official reports indicate that the number of forest fires and areas affected by fire in Serbia is increasing. Changes in temperature and precipitation, important factors in fire behaviour, were determined by comparison between the standard climatological period (1961–1990) and the period 1981–2010. The study processed and compared the data from 26 meteorological stations on the territory of Serbia. In order to determine the risk of fires, values of the Lang precipitation factor and Ångström index are calculated. It is found that the mean values of temperature significantly increased during the second period at all stations in Serbia. The small values of the precipitation factor are recorded during summer, but also in the spring months. Research has shown that an increase in air temperature and reduction of precipitation in the examined period has a great influence of the possibility of fire occurrence. It is concluded that there is a higher fire danger risk during the summer months in Serbia. It is found that eastern and southern Serbia are particularly vulnerable to forest fires because of small values of the Lang precipitation factors.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia, which provided the data necessary for this study. This study was supported by the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, under Grants 176013 and III43009.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Emergency Management Sector of Serbia, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia

    Stanimir Živanović

  2. Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences, University of Priština With Temporary Head Office in Kosovska Mitrovica, 38220, Kosovska Mitrovica, Serbia

    Radomir Ivanović

  3. Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences, University of Niš, 18110, Niš, Serbia

    Milena Nikolić & Mrđan Đokić

  4. Institute for Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Belgrade, 11000, Belgrade, Serbia

    Ivana Tošić

Authors
  1. Stanimir Živanović
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  2. Radomir Ivanović
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  3. Milena Nikolić
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  4. Mrđan Đokić
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  5. Ivana Tošić
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Contributions

SŽ and RI had the original idea for the manuscript. SŽ, RI, MN and IT conceived methodology; all authors organized and analyzed climatic data. MĐ and IT contributing in mapping.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ivana Tošić.

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The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

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This study does not involve human subjects, human material, or human data.

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Responsible Editor: A.-P. Dimri.

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Živanović, S., Ivanović, R., Nikolić, M. et al. Influence of air temperature and precipitation on the risk of forest fires in Serbia. Meteorol Atmos Phys 132, 869–883 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00725-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-020-00725-6

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