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Climate-driven Yield Variability for Winter Wheat in Henan Province, North China and its Relation to Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation Indices

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Abstract

The responses of wheat yield to large-scale atmospheric circulation indices (LACI) were explored in Henan province, north China. With using the annual series of climate-driven yield index (CDYI) extracted from winter wheat yield collected in 17 cites and the monthly series of 15 types of LACI during 1988–2017, the main findings were as follows: (1) this province could be divided into four sub-regions (central-east, west, north, and south Henan) with different CDYI variations; (2) the CDYI in central-east, west, south Henan was dominated by a 3-year oscillation, while the CDYI in north Henan presented a notable 7.5-year oscillation; (3) among the four sub-regions, central-east Henan had the most significant CDYI-LACI relationship, and the higher Nino 1 + 2 in December were a key yield reduction signal; (4) during 2008–2017, the stronger increase of Nino1 + 2_in December had caused the yield decrease in central Henan by 6.58%. In summary, linking wheat yield to LACI anomalies should be instrumental in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change on wheat production.

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Acknowledgements

This paper is mainly supported by Jiangsu Agriculture Science and Technology Innovation Fund (Grant No. CX(17)1004), Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), CMA/Henan Key Laboratory of Agro-meteorological Support and Applied Technique (AMF202006), National Key Research and Development Program (2018YFD0300905).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Co-Innovation Center for Sustainable Forestry in Southern China, Jiangsu Province Key Laboratory of Soil and Water Conservation and Ecological Restoration, Nanjing Forestry University, Nanjing, 210037, China

    Jiadong Chen & Jinchi Zhang

  2. Nanjing Branch of Jiangsu Provincial Hydrology and Water Resources Investigation and Survey Bureau, Nanjing, 210008, China

    Jiadong Chen

  3. Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique, China Meteorological Administration, Zhengzhou, 450003, China

    Hongwei Tian

  4. Henan Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Zhengzhou, 450003, China

    Hongwei Tian

  5. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, School of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Jin Huang & Fangmin Zhang

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  1. Jiadong Chen
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  2. Hongwei Tian
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  3. Jin Huang
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  5. Fangmin Zhang
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Correspondence to Jinchi Zhang.

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Chen, J., Tian, H., Huang, J. et al. Climate-driven Yield Variability for Winter Wheat in Henan Province, North China and its Relation to Large-scale Atmospheric Circulation Indices. Int. J. Plant Prod. 15, 79–91 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42106-020-00119-z

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