Abstract
Potential effects of projected climate variability on base flow and groundwater storage in the North Fork Red River aquifer, Oklahoma (USA), were estimated using downscaled climate model data coupled with a numerical groundwater-flow model. The North Fork Red River aquifer discharges groundwater to the North Fork Red River, which provides inflow to Lake Altus. To approximate future conditions, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate data were downscaled to the watershed and a time-series of scaling factors were developed and interpolated for three climate scenarios (central tendency, warmer and drier, and less warm and wetter) representing future climate conditions for the period 2045–2074. These scaling factors were then applied to a soil-water-balance model to produce groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration estimates. A MODFLOW groundwater-flow model of the North Fork Red River aquifer used the scaled recharge and evapotranspiration data to estimate changes in base flow and water-surface elevation of Lake Altus. Compared to a baseline scenario, the mean percent change in annual base flow during 2045–2074 was −10.8 and −15.9% for the central tendency and warmer/drier scenarios, respectively; the mean percent change in annual base flow for the less-warm/wetter scenario was +15.7%. The mean annual percent change in groundwater storage for the central tendency, warmer/drier, and less-warm/wetter climate scenarios and the baseline are −2.7, −3.2, and +3.0%, respectively. The range of outcomes from the climate scenarios may be influenced by variability in the downscaled climate data for precipitation more than for temperature.
Résumé
Les effets potentiels de la variabilité du climat projeté sur le débit de base et sur le stockage des eaux souterraines dans l’aquifère North Fork Red River, Oklahoma (Etats-Unis d’Amérique), ont été estimés en utilisant des données d’un modèle climatique à échelle réduite couplées à un modèle numérique d’écoulement des eaux souterraines. Les eaux souterraines de l’aquifère North Fork Red River alimentent la rivière North Fork Red, qui se déverse dans le lac Altus. Afin d’estimer l’effet des conditions climatiques futures, les données climatiques de la phase 5 du projet d’intercomparaison des modèles couplés ont été réduites sur le bassin versant et des séries chronologiques de facteurs d’échelle ont été développées et interpolées pour trois scénarios climatiques (tendance centrales, plus chaud et plus sec, et moins chaud et plus humide) représentatifs des futures conditions climatiques pour la période 2045–2074. Ces facteurs d’échelle ont été appliqués ensuite à un modèle de bilan sol eau afin de produire les estimations de la recharge des eaux souterraines et l’évapotranspiration. Un modèle d’écoulement d’eaux souterraines – MODFLOW – de l’aquifère North Fork Red a utilisé les données de recharge et d’évapotranspiration mises à l’échelle pour estimer les changements du débit de base et de l’altitude de la surface de l’eau du Lac Altus. Le pourcentage moyen de changement du debit de base annuel pour la période 2045–2074 par rapport à un scénario de référence était de −10.8 et −15.9% pour les scénarii de tendance centrale et plus chaud/plus sec, respectivement; le pourcentage moyen de changement du débit de base annuel pour le scénario moins chaud/plus humide était de +15.7%. Le pourcentage moyen de changement du stockage des eaux souterraines pour les scénarii climatiques de tendance centrale, plus chaud/plus sec, et moins chaux/plus humide par rapport à la référence était de −2.7, −3.2, et +3.0%, respectivement. La gamme des résultats des scenarios climatiques peut être davantage influencée par la variabilité des données climatiques à l’échelle réduite pour les précipitations que pour la température.
Resumen
Los posibles efectos de la variabilidad climática pronosticada para el flujo de base y el almacenamiento de aguas subterráneas en el acuífero del North Fork Red River, Oklahoma (EEUU), se estimaron utilizando datos de un modelo climático a escala reducida junto con un modelo numérico de flujo de aguas subterráneas. El acuífero North Fork Red River descarga aguas subterráneas en el North Fork Red River, que proporciona el flujo de entrada al Lago Altus. Para aproximarse a las condiciones futuras, los datos climáticos del Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 se redujeron a la cuenca y se elaboró una serie cronológica de factores de escala que se interpolaron para tres escenarios climáticos (tendencia central, más cálido y más seco, y menos cálido y más húmedo) que representan las condiciones climáticas futuras para el período 2045–2074. Esos factores de escala se aplicaron luego a un modelo de equilibrio suelo-agua para producir estimaciones de recarga de aguas subterráneas y de evapotranspiración. Un modelo de flujo de aguas subterráneas MODFLOW del acuífero del North Fork Red River utilizó los datos de recarga a escala y de evapotranspiración para estimar los cambios en el flujo de base y la elevación de la superficie del agua del Lago Altus. En comparación con un escenario de referencia, el cambio porcentual medio en el flujo de base anual durante 2045–2074 fue de −10.8 y −15.9% para los escenarios de tendencia central y más cálido/seco, respectivamente; el cambio porcentual medio en el flujo de base anual para el escenario menos cálido/seco fue de +15.7%. El cambio porcentual medio anual en el almacenamiento de aguas subterráneas para los escenarios de tendencia central y de clima más cálido/seco y menos cálido/húmedo y la línea de base son −2.7, −3.2 y +3.0%, respectivamente. La gama de resultados de los escenarios climáticos puede verse influenciada por la variabilidad de los datos climáticos a escala reducida para las precipitaciones más que para la temperatura.
摘要
使用降尺度气候模型数据和地下水流数值模型估算了预测的气候变化对Oklahoma(美国)North Fork红河含水层基流和地下水储量的潜在影响。North Fork红河含水层排泄地下水到North Fork红河, 进而流入Altus湖。为了近似未来的条件, 将耦合模型比较项目的第5期气候数据降尺度到流域, 并针对代表未来2045–2074年期间气候条件的三种气候情景(集中趋势, 温暖和干燥以及较少温暖和潮湿)开发了基于尺度因子的时间序列内插方法。然后将这些尺度因子应用于土壤-水平衡模型, 以估计地下水补给量和蒸散发量。North Fork红河含水层的MODFLOW地下水流模型使用降尺度的补给量和蒸散发量数据估算了Altus湖基流量和湖水位的变化。与基准情景相比, 对于集中趋势情景和较暖/较干燥情景, j在2045–2044年期间, 年基流量的平均变化百分比分别为–10.8和–15.9%; 较不温暖/较冷的情况下, 年基流量的平均变化百分比为+15.7%; 对于中心趋势, 较暖和较干燥, 较不暖和较湿的气候情景以及基准情景, 地下水储量的年平均变化百分比分别为–2.7, −3.2和 +3.0%。气候情景的结果范围可能受到降尺度气候数据变化的影响, 其中降水量产生的影响大于温度产生的影响。
Resumo
Os efeitos potenciais da variabilidade climática projetada no fluxo base e no armazenamento de água subterrânea no aquífero North Fork Red, Oklahoma (EUA), foram estimados utilizando dados de modelo climático em escala refinada, juntamente com um modelo numérico de fluxo de água subterrânea. O aquífero North Fork Red descarrega as águas subterrâneas no Rio North Fork Red, que regula o Lago Altus. Para aproximar as condições futuras, os dados climáticos do Projeto Coupled Model Intercomparison Fase 5 foram refinados para a bacia hidrográfica e uma série de fatores de escala foi desenvolvida e interpolada para três cenários climáticos (tendência central, mais quente e mais seca, e menos quente e mais úmida), representando futuro condições climáticas para o período de 2045 a 2074. Esses fatores de escala foram aplicados a um modelo de equilíbrio entre água e solo para produzir estimativas de recarga e evapotranspiração nas águas subterrâneas. Um modelo de fluxo de águas subterrâneas MODFLOW do aquífero North Fork Red utilizou os dados de recarga e evapotranspiração em escala para estimar as mudanças no fluxo base e na elevação da superfície da água do Lago Altus. Comparado com um cenário de controle, a variação percentual média no fluxo base anual durante 2045–2074 foi de −10.8 e −15.9% para os cenários de tendência central e mais quente/mais seco, respectivamente; a variação percentual média no fluxo base anual para o cenário menos quente/úmido foi de +15.7%. A variação percentual anual média no armazenamento de água subterrânea para os cenários de tendência central, mais quente/mais seco e menos quente/úmido e para o de controle são −2.7, −3.2 e +3.0%, respectivamente. A gama de resultados dos cenários climáticos pode ser influenciada pela variabilidade nos dados climáticos refinados para precipitação mais do que temperatura.
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Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups (listed in Table S1 of the electronic supplementary material (ESM) for this paper) for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the US Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. This study would not have been possible without the Oklahoma Water Resource Board-funded North Fork Red River model published by the USGS. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the US Government.
Funding
Examination of groundwater availability to the North Fork Red River Aquifer using CMIP downscaled climate scenarios was supported by the Bureau of Reclamation (R14PG00054) Oklahoma-Texas Area Office.
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Labriola, L.G., Ellis, J.H., Gangopadhyay, S. et al. Evaluating the effects of downscaled climate projections on groundwater storage and simulated base-flow contribution to the North Fork Red River and Lake Altus, southwest Oklahoma (USA). Hydrogeol J 28, 2903–2916 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02230-x
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02230-x