Techno-economic Analysis of Hydrogen Electrolysis from Off-Grid Stand-Alone Photovoltaics Incorporating Uncertainty Analysis

Highlights

• Bottom-up model of stand-alone PV-powered electrolysis, including local weather data

• Levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) calculations for promising locations worldwide

• Keys to competitiveness: reduction in PV cost, access to sunny remote areas, larger scale

Summary

Solar-driven electrolysis of water to generate hydrogen is emerging as a viable strategy to decarbonize the global energy economy. However, this direction is more expensive than traditional fossil fuel generation of hydrogen, and effective pathways to lower this cost need to be identified. Here, we report a Monte Carlo approach to explore a wide range of input assumptions to identify key cost drivers, targets, and localized conditions necessary for competitive stand-alone dedicated PV powered hydrogen electrolysis. We determine the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH), considering historical weather data for specific locations to model our PV system, and optimize its size compared to the electrolyzer. This analysis and its methods show the potential for green hydrogen production using off-grid PV, shows the merits of remote systems in areas of high solar resource, and provides cost and performance targets for electrolyzer technologies.