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A New Method for Joint Frequency Analysis of Modified Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Streamflow Drought Index Based on the Conditional Density of Copula Functions

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Abstract

In this study, a new method was proposed to model the occurrence of related variables based on the conditional density of copula functions. The proposed method was adopted to investigate the dynamics of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Zarinehroud basin, southeast of Lake Urmia, during the period 1994–2015. For this purpose, the modified precipitation anomaly percentage and streamflow drought indices were extracted. Finally, the joint frequency analysis of duration-duration and severity-severity characteristics of meteorological and hydrological droughts was analyzed. Analysis of 7 different copulas used to create the joint distribution in the Zarinehroud basin indicated that the Frank copula had the best performance in describing the relationship between the meteorological and hydrological drought severities and durations. By examining the results of the bivariate analysis of duration-duration of meteorological and hydrological droughts at different stations, the expected meteorological and hydrological drought durations were estimated in the years ahead. For example, at Chalkhmaz station, 4- to 7-month duration for the hydrological drought and 9- to 12-month duration for the meteorological drought is expected in the years ahead. The joint frequency analysis of drought characteristics allows to determine the meteorological and hydrological drought characteristics at a single station at the same time using joint probabilities. Also, the results indicated that by knowing the conditional density, the hydrological drought characteristics can be easily estimated for the given meteorological drought characteristics. This could provide users and researchers useful information about the probabilistic behavior of drought characteristics for optimal operation of surface water.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Politecnico di Milano for providing the facilities to the first author as a visiting researcher. Also, the authors would like to thank Iran Water Resources Management Company for providing the data.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Water Engineering, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran

    Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi & Yousef Ramezani

  2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Politecnico di Milano, Milan, Italy

    Carlo De Michele

  3. Department of Water Engineering, Shahrekord University, Shahrekord, Iran

    Rasoul Mirabbasi

Authors
  1. Mohammad Nazeri Tahroudi
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  2. Yousef Ramezani
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  3. Carlo De Michele
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  4. Rasoul Mirabbasi
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Correspondence to Yousef Ramezani.

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Nazeri Tahroudi, M., Ramezani, Y., De Michele, C. et al. A New Method for Joint Frequency Analysis of Modified Precipitation Anomaly Percentage and Streamflow Drought Index Based on the Conditional Density of Copula Functions. Water Resour Manage 34, 4217–4231 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02666-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-020-02666-6

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