Developing a spatial methodology to reduce the vulnerability of critical infrastructures against intelligent air-based threats

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Abstract

Intelligent air-based threats are considered as the main elements of terrorist attacks which damage vital infrastructures. Air defence systems with a strategic and decisive role in defense networks require smart management and operational mechanisms to countermeasure the threats and risks both quickly and decisively. The main objective of this investigation was to develop a spatial methodology to reduce the vulnerability of infrastructures against airborne threats. The proposed method tried to detect the threatening parameters of air-based threats and the vulnerability parameters of infrastructures in order to find a solution for deviating airborne threats equipped with GPS and INS. The proposed method was implemented for the power electric infrastructure in Isfahan, Iran. The authors tried to identify the most probable routes for airborne threats targeting such strategic infrastructures. More specifically, the aim was to mislead the threats and deny access to infrastructures and finally to locate the optimum sites for the deployment of jammers. Eventually, the proposed method showed to reduce the total number of jammer positioning processes to a desirable level. The results indicated that the number of jammers decreased by about 28% and the extent of damage was reduced by 57%.

Introduction

After the September 11 terrorist attacks, global focus on preventing and curbing terrorist activities has been highly intensified [11]. The total number of deaths caused by terrorism has increased by 80% compared to the figure in previous years [10]. Additionally, with the spread of terrorist groups, security around the world, especially for those who are constantly exposed to the threat of terrorist groups, has become a major concern. As a response, the states should have a strategy to reduce their vulnerability and increase the safety of their critical infrastructures. Terrorist groups now have a variety of weapons, ammunition and equipment at their disposal to damage and destroy targets by their members without entering any official ground conflicts. The venue of terrorist attacks has moved from developing countries to developed countries which have already experienced a number of attacks in the recent decades [4].

On the other hand, over time with advances in technology, aerial threats have become more accurate, and countries are engaged in enhancing the safety of their critical infrastructures. Detecting radar systems are deployed in different areas to prevent threats gaining access to infrastructures. The new threatening cruise missiles are designed such that they can fly at low altitudes and gain access to the infrastructures, without being detected by radar systems. Defending countries are trying to intercept the navigation of threats using jammers with a precise positioning to disrupt routing and reduce their accessibility to protect the country's critical infrastructures.

One of the most important factors that can curb terrorist threats is identifying their target areas. Lessons learned from the past support the idea that terrorists have the intension to break the willpower of the people and weaken the state's power, both militarily and economically. Their strategy is to destroy the centers of gravity, thereby focusing on bombing and destructing crucial infrastructures [13]. In this regard, a study investigated urban systems’ vulnerabilities with regard to man-made hazards and examined the physical vulnerability of buildings with respect to intentional explosion hazards [8].

Many studies in different countries have already investigated the vulnerability of critical infrastructures against terrorist air-based threats. The need for methodologies that can reduce the vulnerability of infrastructures is widely recognized in the field of security and risk. In this context, some studies have been conducted. One research with a multidisciplinary design tried to optimize the architectures of complex systems to protect critical infrastructures against low-altitude aerial vehicles [9]. That research claimed that current systems deployed to protect critical assets were generally not adapted to and optimized for the problem at hand. Thus, the goal of this research was to develop a new methodology to reformulate the problem in clear terms and to facilitate the subsequent modeling and simulation of potential operational scenarios. In the aforementioned work, four main parameters including critical asset, detection system, topography, and the aerial system were considered as threats. However, jammers, as one of the main elements which can mislead aerial threats to protect critical infrastructures, had not been considered. Also, the mentioned research only analyzed the position of radar detection systems, and did not propose any new solution for reducing the vulnerability of infrastructures.

Recent research has been focusing on protection for risk mitigation. In this regard, air and missile defense systems and their operations should be noted [16]. Also, in this research, the operation of defense systems such as radar detection systems should be considered as a sphere. Air-based threats operate like a cone when they want to acquire information by sensors from the infrastructure. In this regard, the jammers operation can also be considered as a cone. These behaviors can help to develop a spatial model, because it is important to know the operations of objects in every model.

Another research project aiming to protect critical infrastructure (CI) against cyber-attacks was TENACE, which was conducted in Italy [14]. TENACE had the objective of defining the collaborative technical and organizational methodologies necessary for increasing the protection of CIs. In addition, there is also a specific objective of looking at the common steps required to be considered for developing a unifying methodology. This study of specific CI vulnerabilities and the related attacks can result in the development of algorithms, models, architectures, and tools as the means to enable effective protection of critical infrastructures, thereby enhancing their security and dependability by considering a constantly evolving adversary.

Cruise missile defense systems have been one of the main research topics in recent years. These missiles are unmanned aerial vehicles that could move to the target without any interference. Because of the complicated behavior of cruise missiles, they can be considered for a case study. In this regard, a research was conducted to present a defense-planning approach to constrain the problem and therefore to aid policy and resource decisions regarding one type of potential threat to the homeland: cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles [1]. These systems seem to be most advantageous since they could make it easier for an adversary to do five major actions. They could attack over perimeter defenses and over national borders. Cruise missiles could also perform multiple simultaneous attacks to launch an attack campaign (a series of attacks over time). Also, these threats could attack target areas with unconventional weapons. In this research, to counteract these threats, we could use passive defense by strengthening our protection systems. Deploying jammers to mislead cruise missiles is one powerful way to counter these threats.

Another research project entitled SAFSKY was conducted to protect critical infrastructures against aerial threats. With the spread of terrorist groups around the world, many projects and studies have been launched to react against these groups. In these studies, the emphasis has been on the use of airborne threats [2]. Also, multidimensional vulnerability assessment has been done on flooding using GIS [2]. So, in order to reduce vulnerability, geospatial information systems can be used here to find the best solution. Additionally, all aspects of terrorist attacks can be considered to provide the main information for protecting infrastructures against air-based terrorist attacks. This research emphasizes the importance of protecting critical infrastructure against airborne threats. In addition, there is no additional information regarding technical parts and the details are not described either as they are classified information.

Probabilistic terrorism risk assessments that quantify the costs and benefits are conducted for three items including infrastructures, use of representative costs, and vulnerability data. Based on our knowledge, no work has yet addressed a spatial methodology to reduce the vulnerability of the infrastructures by misleading air-based threats. One of the issues not resolved yet is introducing strategies to reduce the vulnerability of infrastructures when the objective of the threat is acquiring target information for which such a methodology could be proposed.

The remainder of this paper is structured as follows: Section 2 presents objects, properties of objects and operators of methodology as well as a comprehensive methodology for analyzing the vulnerability of the infrastructure presented. Section 3 highlights the method proposed to reduce the vulnerability of the infrastructure. In Section 4, the proposed model is implemented and the best locations of jammers are located and the optimal distribution of jammers is evaluated and compared with the traditional models. Finally, Section 5 concludes the paper.

Section snippets

The principles of spatial methodology for vulnerability analysis

A good spatial methodology develops an appropriate analytical model that allows for implementing the spatial methodology more precisely. In response to implementing the appropriate analytical model, vulnerability can be represented more accurately. The developed methodology is extracted from a general framework. The framework has four main objects including threat, active defense, passive defense, and infrastructure. For protecting any target, passive defense and active defense against all

Modeling

In this section, a model has been developed to reduce the infrastructure vulnerability against airborne threats. Accordingly, the best location of jammers will be found to deviate cruise missiles from their target, i.e. the infrastructure's vulnerable area. First of all, the most probable trajectory of cruise missiles should be determined. Since there are radar detection systems all around every infrastructure, after determining the position of the radar detection object, the unrecognizable

Model implementation

In Iran, there are about 91 power plants, 89 dams, 16 thermal power plants, and three nuclear power plants.

The proposed model was implemented for the power electric infrastructure in Isfahan, Iran. Tomahawk cruise missile was considered as the moving object. The Motion information of this object has been mentioned in its certificate.

Three different sources from which attack could originate were considered. Using cruise missile movement characteristics and identifying the location of the source

Discussion and conclusions

A spatial methodology for vulnerability analysis against air-borne threats is one of the basic needs of administrators, planners, and stakeholders of infrastructures. Due to the increase in the number of terrorist groups and their access to military equipment, managers need a comprehensive methodology that can consider all the parameters that affect the vulnerability of infrastructures and take measures to counter the threats. In this research, all factors influencing the vulnerability of

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