Original Research PaperSaskatchewan’s energy future: Risk and pathways analysis
Introduction
In the last few decades, concerns over unsustainable energy production and consumption have become a growing challenge for policymakers in different jurisdictions across the world (International Energy Agency (IEA), 2011; UN Environment, 2019; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014; 2018). This concern now drives debate over future energy development strategies at the national and international levels of society. At the Conference of Parties (COP) in Paris in 2015, over 190 countries of the world came together under an institutional framework designed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), called the National Determined Contributions (NDCs). The NDCs is a system in which various countries determine the level of GHG emissions reduction they would make by 2050 to avoid irreversible climatic change (The World Bank, 2016; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC, 2018; Knutti et al., 2016; Rogelj et al., 2015).
The NDCs are multi-sectoral, but in the energy sector, “the gap between the goals of the Paris Agreement and efforts on the ground looms large” (IEA, 2016, p.3) and is deemed off track by some current estimates (IEA, 2018a). One reason for this is that while low carbon alternatives like renewables have increased their share of global energy generation, increase in demand and consumption of fossil fuels is eroding any gains made on that front (IEA, 2018a, b). The IEA (2018a) reveals that the overall world energy demand grew by 2.1 %1, compared to 0.9 % in 2016, leading to a 1.4 % growth in energy-related CO2 emissions2 . About 70 % of that growth was met by fossil fuels. If the carbon reduction goal set out in the Paris Agreement is not met, the impact of climate change on human lives and societies could be irreversible (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014; 2018; Hansen et al., 2013; van der Hel et al., 2018; Solomon et al., 2009). Hence, the call to support the use of technologies such as carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) and small modular nuclear (SMRs) for achieving deep cuts in the energy sector (IEA, 2018a; Koelbl et al., 2014; Bui et al., 2018; MIT, 2018; Schleussner et al., 2016; Rogelj et al., 2015; Vaughan and Lenton, 2011; Kanudia et al., 2014; Scott et al., 2004; Koelbl et al., 2014; Tavoni et al., 2012; de Coninck and Benson, 2014) is now being sounded with some urgency.
The need for transitioning to a sustainable energy system is urgent as it is crucial (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014; 2018; Hansen et al., 2013; van der Hel et al., 2018; Solomon et al., 2009). As a response, the systems transition research field has blossomed as it provides needed theoretical and policy insights. While the literature is full of case studies describing jurisdictional efforts; obstacles and/or enablers for meeting local and/or national energy transitions goals (L’Orange Seigo et al., 2014; Singleton et al., 2009; Karayannis et al., 2014; de Coninck et al., 2009; Shackley et al., 2009; Parkhill et al., 2010; Guo and Ren, 2017; Visschers et al., 2011; Sun and Zhu, 2014; Visschers and Siegrist, 2013; Goodfellow et al., 2011; Stephens et al., 2008), this current study argues that the Saskatchewan case provides a unique opportunity to expand on existing discussions of the impact of risk on energy systems transition.
In Saskatchewan, most of the province’s power production sources are currently near the end of their useful life. Hence, the province’s energy system is at a critical transition juncture. Also, as White (1976) indicates, affordability and reliability of power are, historically, critical in defining Saskatchewan’s approach to power generation (Rediger, 2004). So, at this critical juncture, the province's energy systems plans do not only need to be environmentally sustainable but also must be reliable and affordable. Further, the province's energy consumption rate has grown in the last decade and is expected to continue to grow; hence it not only needs to rebuild its current capacity, but it also needs to expand it as well (SaskPower, 2017; Statistics Canada, 2018). All these conditions are in the context of landscape pressures from the Federal government, which mandates Saskatchewan to limit emissions from major power plants (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2013). The Federal government regulation excludes certain types of resources like coal and natural gas (without CCS technology) from consideration as the province determines what resources options or technology it would adopt to achieve its goals.
The choice of which technology(ies) or a mix of resources jurisdictions adopt is often complicated and contextual (Olivier et al., 2013; Rosen, 2015). Also, it is dependent on the transitions pathways a jurisdiction seeks to follow. However, both factors are influenced by how relevant stakeholders within the jurisdiction assess the risk of the resources and technologies available to them. In energy systems transitions literature, risk has been identified as a major barrier to sustainable energy systems transitions (L’Orange Seigo et al., 2014; Singleton et al., 2009; Karayannis et al., 2014; de Coninck et al., 2009; Shackley et al., 2009; Parkhill et al., 2010; Guo and Ren, 2017; Visschers et al., 2011; Sun and Zhu, 2014; Visschers and Siegrist, 2013; Goodfellow et al., 2011; Stephens et al., 2008; van Alphen et al., 2007; Markusson et al., 2012; Selma et al., 2014; Lock et al., 2014). However, it is not always clear from the literature what type of risk would result in which type of transition or how risk considerations influence transitions pathways (Moallemi and Malekpour, 2018; Bolton and Foxon, 2015; Karimi et al., 2016; Antosiewicz et al., 2019; Geels et al., 2018a,2018b; Roper and Tapinos, 2016; Stephens et al., 2008; Scheer et al., 2017). Thus, this study hopes to explore the Saskatchewan case in other to gain some insight into the role of risk in shaping transitions pathways (Moallemi and Malekpour, 2018; Bolton and Foxon, 2015; Karimi et al., 2016; Antosiewicz et al., 2019; Geels et al., 2018a,2018b; Roper and Tapinos, 2016; Stephens et al., 2008; Scheer et al., 2017).
In Saskatchewan, while SaskPower's (the province's power generation and distribution company) current energy mix includes CCS, the province has historically rejected nuclear technology. While the rationale and arguments against nuclear technology in Saskatchewan have to do with its perceived risk, the province's acceptance, or at least acquiescence/tolerance, of CCS (a technology which has been criticized for its own risk), raises questions over what types of risk the province is willing to accept or tolerate. This is interesting because nuclear technology has comparable grid characteristics which have favoured the argument to continue using coal (with CCS) (Bourassa et al., 2016; Fried et al., 2014) 3 .
Although either CCS and nuclear technology are not without risk (L’Orange Seigo et al., 2014; Singleton et al., 2009; Karayannis et al., 2014; de Coninck et al., 2009; Shackley et al., 2009; Bourassa et al., 2016; Fried et al., 2014), applying either technologies in Saskatchewan would advance the province's energy systems through different transitions pathways. Thus, by studying the Saskatchewan case, we can get some insight into the question of how risk assessment influence transitions4
Section snippets
A holistic framework for analyzing risk in socio-technical systems transitions
In this article, 'risk' is defined as any threat “to outcomes that we value” (Fischhoff and Kadvany, 2011, p. 22). This definition generates certain assumptions which this article accepts. One, it assumes that risk can be both objective and subjective. Second, risk analysis should not solely focus on risk factors/issues, recognizing that every risk factor/issue cannot be fully captured within a single study. Third, analyzing threats to outcomes that we value (analyzing risk) is directly linked
A history of Saskatchewan’s energy systems: transitioning to a sustainable future
Socio-technical systems transitions understood in relation to an incumbent system is primarily the extent of change a system experiences as a result of a combination of niche development, landscape pressures and actor-network activities (Geels et al., 2018a,2018b). Where the change is significant, a substitution pathway is said to have been adopted, but where it is low, the pathway essentially is a reproduction. Two other pathways: transformation and dealignment/realignment are in-between (
Method
The goal of this study is to provide insight into how risk analysis influence transitions pathways. The adoption of the risk governance framework means this study would be mapping cause-effect inferences put forward by relevant actors as they analyze threats to the outcome of value in Saskatchewan's energy system. This research is exploratory and adopts an inductive approach. Thus, its goal is not to confirm existing assumptions or hypothesis.
This exploratory approach allows for flexibility in
Data analysis
This study collected both qualitative and quantitative data. The qualitative data came from recorded deliberation sessions which were then transcribed and analyzed on NVivo while the quantitative data was collected through pre and post-deliberation surveys that were administered by the researchers. This data was analyzed mostly for frequencies and distribution statistics on SPSS. The surveys were administered to access the juror's knowledge of Saskatchewan's energy systems and preferences in
Results and discussions
The citizen juries explored all options for energy generation in Saskatchewan, including renewables (wind, hydro, solar), geothermal, and biomass. However, SMRs and CCS are the focus here as both have similar grid characteristics, including their capacities to provide baseload power to the grid, which was the basis for SaskPower’s adoption of CCS technology.
Based on the risk governance framework in Renn (2008), risk assessment in SMRs and CCS would involve the identification of hazards
Conclusion
Saskatchewan’s current energy system includes CCS technology, which can potentially fix the GHG emissions problems in the incumbent coal-based system, and several other sources such as natural gas. While its 2030 plan involves a ramping up of options such as natural gas, wind, solar and hydro, there is still a decision as to whether the province will deploy more CCS to keep coal in its mix for the medium term or whether it will use other base-load sources such as SMRs. This is the case since
Acknowledgment
The authors acknowledge that the research in this article was supported by funding contributions from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
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