Abstract
Climate variability is one of the most powerful drivers that have resulted in loss of forest ecosystems. Quercus leucotrichophora (A. Camus) (Banj oak) is a keystone tree in moist temperate forests of Central Himalayas. Banj oak forests have high biodiversity, soil organic matter, and water holding capacity that supports human well-being. Climate variability coupled with anthropogenic pressure has affected the regeneration and succession patterns in these forests. Conservation of Banj oak is a socio-ecological challenge and will require an interdisciplinary approach. In the present study, we have assessed the impact of climate variability on the ecological niche of Q. leucotrichophora using the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt). The occurrence locations of the tree species were obtained from primary survey and published works (1984 to 2018). CMIP5 (Couple Model Inter-comparison Project)-derived bioclimatic variables were used as predictor variables in the modeling. The predictions were done following four IPCC RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) scenarios for the future periods of 2050 and 2070. Our results show that the estimated potential habitats of the Q. leucotrichophora are likely to decline by 84–99%. Shift of the species from its present habitats due to climate variability reflects unusual patterns and demands climate adaptive management for forest landscape restoration (FLR) through active community involvement in the region. The study provides information about the suitable niches for the species of Banj oak forests and addresses the growing concern of spring-shed rejuvenation using climate adaptive FLR in Central Himalayas.
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Abbreviations
- AUC:
-
Area under curve
- CCSM4:
-
The Community Climate System Model version 4
- CMIP5:
-
Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5
- DEM:
-
Digital Elevation Model
- FLR:
-
Forest Landscape Restoration
- FSI:
-
Forest Survey of India
- GBIF:
-
Global Biodiversity Information Facility
- GCM:
-
Global Climate Models
- GPS:
-
Global Positioning System
- HKH:
-
Hindukush Himalaya Assessment
- IHR:
-
Indian Himalayan Region
- IPBES:
-
Intergovernmental Panel on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
- IPCC:
-
Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change
- IUCN:
-
International Union for Conservation of Nature
- MaxEnt:
-
Maximum entropy
- MoEF&CC:
-
Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change
- MSL:
-
Mean sea level
- NAPCC:
-
National Action Plan for Climate Change
- NMSHE:
-
National Mission on Sustaining Himalayan Ecosystem
- RCP:
-
Representative concentration pathways
- SDG:
-
Sustainable Development Goals
- SDM:
-
Species distribution model
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Acknowledgments
The authors are thankful to two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments that have helped to substantially improve the manuscript. The first author wishes to thank Dr. R.K. Maikhuri for encouragement and providing necessary facilities. The first author is also grateful to Dr. Deepak Dhyani for his help in field data collection. Field assistants Mr. Harsh Prakash Semwal, Mr. Birulal, and Mrs. Asha Semwal are acknowledged for their assistance during the field work. The second author is thankful to Dr. Ashok Kadaverugu for his help in language editing and proofreading. The authors thank the institutional manuscript processing services having the reference number CSIR-NEERI/KRC/2019/OCT/WTMD-CTMD/1 dated 04/10/2019. Financial support for the field work from Department of Science and Technology, Government of India (2002–2006); TSBF/GEF/CIAT/UNEP (2004–2007); DST SYSP (No. SP/YO/024/2008) (2009–2012), Rufford Small Grants Programme, UK (Grant No. 10326) (2014–2015); and NMCG (grant nos. G-1-2103 and G-1-2298) (2015-2020) is thankfully acknowledged.
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Dhyani, S., Kadaverugu, R. & Pujari, P. Predicting impacts of climate variability on Banj oak (Quercus leucotrichophora A. Camus) forests: understanding future implications for Central Himalayas. Reg Environ Change 20, 113 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01696-5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01696-5