Abstract
Applied ecology has traditionally approached management problems through a simplified, single-species lens. Repeated failures of single-species management have led us to a new paradigm — managing at the ecosystem level. Ecosystem management involves a complex array of interacting organisms, processes and scientific disciplines. Accounting for interactions, feedback loops and dependencies between ecosystem components is therefore fundamental to understanding and managing ecosystems. We provide an overview of the main types of ecosystem models and their uses, and discuss challenges related to modelling complex ecological systems. Existing modelling approaches typically attempt to do one or more of the following: describe and disentangle ecosystem components and interactions; make predictions about future ecosystem states; and inform decision making by comparing alternative strategies and identifying important uncertainties. Modelling ecosystems is challenging, particularly when balancing the desire to represent many components of an ecosystem with the limitations of available data and the modelling objective. Explicitly considering different forms of uncertainty is therefore a primary concern. We provide some recommended strategies (such as ensemble ecosystem models and multi-model approaches) to aid the explicit consideration of uncertainty while also meeting the challenges of modelling ecosystems.
This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution
Access options
Access Nature and 54 other Nature Portfolio journals
Get Nature+, our best-value online-access subscription
$29.99 / 30 days
cancel any time
Subscribe to this journal
Receive 12 digital issues and online access to articles
$119.00 per year
only $9.92 per issue
Buy this article
- Purchase on Springer Link
- Instant access to full article PDF
Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Lindenmayer, D. et al. The complementarity of single-species and ecosystem-oriented research in conservation research. Oikos 116, 1220–1226 (2007).
Skern-Mauritzen, M. et al. Ecosystem processes are rarely included in tactical fisheries management. Fish Fish. 17, 165–175 (2016).
Geary, W. L., Nimmo, D. G., Doherty, T. S., Ritchie, E. G. & Tulloch, A. I. T. Threat webs: reframing the co‐occurrence and interactions of threats to biodiversity. J. Appl. Ecol. 56, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13427 (2019).
Buckley, Y. M. & Han, Y. Managing the side effects of invasion control. Science 344, 975–976 (2014).
Zavaleta, E. S., Hobbs, R. J. & Mooney, H. A. Viewing invasive species removal in a whole-ecosystem context. Trends Ecol. Evol. 16, 454–459 (2001).
DeFries, R. & Nagendra, H. Ecosystem management as a wicked problem. Science 356, 265–270 (2017).
Carpenter, S. R. et al. Early warnings of regime shifts: a whole-ecosystem experiment. Science 332, 1079 (2011).
Evans, M. C., Davila, F., Toomey, A. & Wyborn, C. Embrace complexity to improve conservation decision making. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 1, 1588 (2017).
Dorresteijn, I. et al. Incorporating anthropogenic effects into trophic ecology: predator–prey interactions in a human-dominated landscape. Proc. R. Soc. B, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.1602 (2015).
Didham, R. K., Tylianakis, J. M., Gemmell, N. J., Rand, T. A. & Ewers, R. M. Interactive effects of habitat modification and species invasion on native species decline. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22, 489–496 (2007).
Brown, C. J., Saunders, M. I., Possingham, H. P. & Richardson, A. J. Managing for interactions between local and global stressors of ecosystems. PLoS ONE 8, e65765 (2013).
Peters, D. P. C. & Okin, G. S. A Toolkit for ecosystem ecologists in the time of big science. Ecosystems 20, 259–266 (2017).
Fulton, E. A. Approaches to end-to-end ecosystem models. J. Mar. Syst. 81, 171–183 (2010).
Waltner-Toews, D., Kay James, J., Neudoerffer, C. & Gitau, T. Perspective changes everything: managing ecosystems from the inside out. Front. Ecol. Environ. 1, 23–30 (2003).
Evans, M. R., Norris, K. J. & Benton, T. G. Predictive ecology: systems approaches. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 163–169 (2012).
Smith, A. D. M., Fulton, E. J., Hobday, A. J., Smith, D. C. & Shoulder, P. Scientific tools to support the practical implementation of ecosystem-based fisheries management. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 64, 633–639 (2007).
Baker, C. M. et al. A novel approach to assessing the ecosystem-wide impacts of reintroductions. Ecol. Appl. 29, https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.1811 (2018).
Purves, D. et al. Ecosystems: time to model all life on Earth. Nature 493, 295 (2013).
Sutherland, W. J. Predicting the ecological consequences of environmental change: a review of the methods. J. Appl. Ecol. 43, 599–616 (2006).
Seidl, R. To model or not to model, that is no longer the question for ecologists. Ecosystems 20, 222–228 (2017).
Rastetter, E. B. Modeling for understanding v. modeling for numbers. Ecosystems 20, 215–221 (2017).
Yates, K. L. et al. Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models. Trends Ecol. Evol. 33, 790–802 (2018).
Schweiger, E. W., Grace, J. B., Cooper, D., Bobowski, B. & Britten, M. Using structural equation modeling to link human activities to wetland ecological integrity. Ecosphere 7, e01548 (2016).
Evans, M. R. Modelling ecological systems in a changing world. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 367, 181–190 (2012).
Fulton, E. A., Smith, A. D. M. & Johnson, C. R. Effect of complexity on marine ecosystem models. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 253, 1–16 (2003).
Lotze, H. K. et al. Global ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 116, 12097–12912 (2019).
Lindenmayer, D. et al. A checklist for ecological management of landscapes for conservation. Ecol. Lett. 11, 78–91 (2007).
Guillera-Arroita, G. et al. Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 24, 276–292 (2015).
Levins, R. The strategy of model building in population biology. Am. Sci. 54, 421–431 (1966).
Dambacher, J. M., Li, H. W. & Rossignol, P. A. Qualitative predictions in model ecosystems. Ecol. Model. 161, 79–93 (2003).
Baker, C. M., Holden, M. H., Plein, M., McCarthy, M. A. & Possingham, H. P. Informing network management using fuzzy cognitive maps. Biol. Conserv. 224, 122–128 (2018).
Dexter, N., Ramsey, D. S., MacGregor, C. & Lindenmayer, D. Predicting ecosystem wide impacts of wallaby management using a fuzzy cognitive map. Ecosystems 15, 1363–1379 (2012).
Dakos, V. & Bascompte, J. Critical slowing down as early warning for the onset of collapse in mutualistic communities. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 17546–17551 (2014).
McDonald-Madden, E. et al. Using food-web theory to conserve ecosystems. Nat. Commun. 7, 10245 (2016).
Harfoot, M. B. et al. Emergent global patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model. PLoS Biol. 12, e1001841 (2014).
Fulton, E. A. et al. Lessons in modelling and management of marine ecosystems: the Atlantis experience. Fish Fish. 12, 171–188 (2011).
Priester, C. R., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Klocker, A. & Corney, S. Abrupt transitions in dynamics of a NPZD model across Southern Ocean fronts. Ecol. Model. 359, 372–382 (2017).
McCann, R. K., Marcot, B. G. & Ellis, R. Bayesian belief networks: applications in ecology and natural resource management. Can. J. Res. 36, 3053–3062 (2006).
Bode, M. et al. Revealing beliefs: using ensemble ecosystem modelling to extrapolate expert beliefs to novel ecological scenarios. Methods Ecol. Evol. 8, 1012–1021 (2017).
Lester, R. E. & Fairweather, P. G. Ecosystem states: creating a data-derived, ecosystem-scale ecological response model that is explicit in space and time. Ecol. Model. 222, 2690–2703 (2011).
Lester, R. E., Fairweather, P. G., Webster, I. T. & Quin, R. A. Scenarios involving future climate and water extraction: ecosystem states in the estuary of Australia’s largest river. Ecol. Appl. 23, 984–998 (2013).
Dubois, D. M. A model of patchiness for prey–predator plankton populations. Ecol. Model. 1, 67–80 (1975).
Pauly, D., Christensen, V. & Walters, C. Ecopath, Ecosim, and Ecospace as tools for evaluating ecosystem impact of fisheries. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 57, 697–706 (2000).
Fulton, E. A., Smith, A. D., Smith, D. C. & Johnson, P. An integrated approach is needed for ecosystem based fisheries management: insights from ecosystem-level management strategy evaluation. Plos ONE 9, e84242 (2014).
Tulloch, V. J. D., Plagányi, É. E., Brown, C., Richardson, A. J. & Matear, R. Future recovery of baleen whales is imperiled by climate change. Glob. Change Biol. 25, 1263–1281 (2019).
Rodríguez, J. P. et al. A practical guide to the application of the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. B 370, 20140003 (2015).
Crabtree, S. A., Bird, D. W. & Bird, R. B. Subsistence transitions and the simplification of ecological networks in the Western Desert of Australia. Hum. Ecol. 47, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10745-019-0053-z (2019).
Planque, B. Projecting the future state of marine ecosystems, “la grande illusion”? ICES J. Mar. Sci. 73, 204–208 (2015).
Walters, C. & Maguire, J.-J. Lessons for stock assessment from the northern cod collapse. Rev. Fish. Biol. Fish. 6, 125–137 (1996).
García-Díaz, P. et al. A concise guide to developing and using quantitative models in conservation management. Conserv. Sci. Pract. 1, e11 (2019).
Morse, N. et al. Novel ecosystems in the Anthropocene: a revision of the novel ecosystem concept for pragmatic applications. Ecol. Soc. 19, https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-06192-190212 (2014).
Fulton, E. & Gorton, R. Adaptive Futures for SE Australian Fisheries & Aquaculture: Climate Adaptation Simulations (FRDC/CSIRO, 2014).
Kurz, W. A. et al. Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 452, 987 (2008).
Plagányi, É. E. Models for an Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (FAO, 2007).
Hunter, D. O., Britz, T., Jones, M. & Letnic, M. Reintroduction of Tasmanian devils to mainland Australia can restore top-down control in ecosystems where dingoes have been extirpated. Biol. Conserv. 191, 428–435 (2015).
Baker, C., Bode, M. & McCarthy, M. Models that predict ecosystem impacts of reintroductions should consider uncertainty and distinguish between direct and indirect effects. Biol. Conserv. 196, 211–212 (2016).
Bunnefeld, N., Hoshino, E. & Milner-Gulland, E. J. Management strategy evaluation: a powerful tool for conservation? Trends Ecol. Evol. 26, 441–447 (2011).
Morello, E. B. et al. Model to manage and reduce crown-of-thorns starfish outbreaks. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 512, 167–183 (2014).
Punt, A. E., Butterworth, D. S., de Moor, C. L., De Oliveira, J. A. A. & Haddon, M. Management strategy evaluation: best practices. Fish Fish. 17, 303–334 (2016).
Edwards, C. T. T., Bunnefeld, N., Balme, G. A. & Milner-Gulland, E. J. Data-poor management of African lion hunting using a relative index of abundance. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 539–543 (2014).
Mapstone, B. et al. Management strategy evaluation for line fishing in the Great Barrier Reef: balancing conservation and multi-sector fishery objectives. Fish. Res. 94, 315–329 (2008).
Roemer, G. W., Donlan, C. J. & Courchamp, F. Golden eagles, feral pigs, and insular carnivores: how exotic species turn native predators into prey. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99, 791–796 (2002).
Lurgi, M., Ritchie, E. G. & Fordham, D. A. Eradicating abundant invasive prey could cause unexpected and varied biodiversity outcomes: the importance of multispecies interactions. J. Appl. Ecol. 55, 2396–2407 (2018).
Raymond, B., McInnes, J., Dambacher, J. M., Way, S. & Bergstrom, D. M. Qualitative modelling of invasive species eradication on subantarctic Macquarie Island. J. Appl. Ecol. 48, 181–191 (2011).
Levins, R. Discussion paper: the qualitative analysis of partially specified systems. Ann. NY Acad. Sci. 231, 123–138 (1974).
Baker, C. M., Gordon, A. & Bode, M. Ensemble ecosystem modeling for predicting ecosystem response to predator reintroduction. Conserv. Biol. 31, 376–384 (2017).
Amstrup, S. C. et al. Greenhouse gas mitigation can reduce sea-ice loss and increase polar bear persistence. Nature 468, 955–958 (2010).
Trifonova, N., Maxwell, D., Pinnegar, J., Kenny, A. & Tucker, A. Predicting ecosystem responses to changes in fisheries catch, temperature, and primary productivity with a dynamic Bayesian network model. ICES J. Mar. Sci. 74, 1334–1343 (2017).
McCarthy, M. A., Andelman, S. J. & Possingham, H. P. Reliability of relative predictions in population viability analysis. Conserv. Biol. 17, 982–989 (2003).
Jamiyansharav, K., Fernández-Giménez, M. E., Angerer, J. P., Yadamsuren, B. & Dash, Z. Plant community change in three Mongolian steppe ecosystems 1994–2013: applications to state-and-transition models. Ecosphere 9, https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2145 (2018).
Rayner, M. J., Hauber, M. E., Imber, M. J., Stamp, R. K. & Clout, M. N. Spatial heterogeneity of mesopredator release within an oceanic island system. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 20862–20865 (2007).
Melbourne-Thomas, J. et al. Regional‐scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system. Ecol. Appl. 21, 1380–1398 (2011).
Briscoe, N. J. et al. Forecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications. Ecol. Lett. 22, 1940–1956 (2019).
Fordham, D. A. et al. Adapted conservation measures are required to save the Iberian lynx in a changing climate. Nat. Clim. Change 3, 899–903 (2013).
Fedriani, J. M. et al. Assisting seed dispersers to restore oldfields: an individual‐based model of the interactions among badgers, foxes and Iberian pear trees. J. Appl. Ecol. 55, 600–611 (2018).
Breckling, B., Müller, F., Reuter, H., Hölker, F. & Fränzle, O. Emergent properties in individual-based ecological models—introducing case studies in an ecosystem research context. Ecol. Model. 186, 376–388 (2005).
Grimm, V., Ayllón, D. & Railsback, S. F. Next-generation individual-based models integrate biodiversity and ecosystems: yes we can, and yes we must. Ecosystems 20, 229–236 (2017).
Walters, C., Christensen, V. & Pauly, D. Structuring dynamic models of exploited ecosystems from trophic mass-balance assessments. Rev. Fish. Biol. Fish. 7, 139–172 (1997).
Pachzelt, A., Rammig, A., Higgins, S. & Hickler, T. Coupling a physiological grazer population model with a generalized model for vegetation dynamics. Ecol. Model. 263, 92–102 (2013).
Pimm, S. L., Lawton, J. H. & Cohen, J. E. Food web patterns and their consequences. Nature 350, 669–674 (1991).
Bodini, A. Reconstructing trophic interactions as a tool for understanding and managing ecosystems: application to a shallow eutrophic lake. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 57, 1999–2009 (2000).
Greenville, A. C., Wardle, G. M. & Dickman, C. R. Desert mammal populations are limited by introduced predators rather than future climate change. R. Soc. Open Sci. 4, https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.170384 (2017).
Pasanen‐Mortensen, M. et al. The changing contribution of top-down and bottom-up limitation of mesopredators during 220 years of land use and climate change. J. Anim. Ecol. 86, 566–576 (2017).
Vitousek, P. M., Mooney, H. A., Lubchenco, J. & Melillo, J. M. Human domination of Earth’s ecosystems. Science 277, 494–499 (1997).
Bliege Bird, R. & Nimmo, D. Restore the lost ecological functions of people. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 2, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-018-0576-5 (2018).
Côté, I. M., Darling, E. S. & Brown, C. J. Interactions among ecosystem stressors and their importance in conservation. Proc. R. Soc. B 283, 20152592 (2016).
Kuijper, D. et al. Paws without claws? Ecological effects of large carnivores in anthropogenic landscapes. Proc. R. Soc. B 283, 20161625 (2016).
Moran, D., Laycock, H. & White, P. C. L. The role of cost-effectiveness analysis in conservation decision-making. Biol. Conserv. 143, 826–827 (2010).
Evans, M. R. et al. Predictive systems ecology. Proc. R. Soc. B 280, https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2013.1452 (2013).
Adams, M. P. et al. Informing management decisions for ecological networks, using dynamic models calibrated to noisy time-series data. Ecol. Lett. 23, 607–619 (2020).
Plagányi, É. E. et al. Multispecies fisheries management and conservation: tactical applications using models of intermediate complexity. Fish Fish. 15, 1–22 (2014).
Hui, C. & Richardson, D. M. How to invade an ecological network. Trends Ecol. Evol. 34, 121–131 (2018).
Chadès, I., Curtis, J. M. R. & Martin, T. G. Setting realistic recovery targets for two interacting endangered species, sea otter and northern abalone. Conserv. Biol. 26, 1016–1025 (2012).
Pesendorfer, M. et al. Oak habitat recovery on California’s largest islands: scenarios for the role of corvid seed dispersal. J. Appl. Ecol. 55, 1185–1194 (2017).
Schuwirth, N. et al. How to make ecological models useful for environmental management. Ecol. Model. 411, 108784 (2019).
Davis, K. J., Chadès, I., Rhodes, J. R. & Bode, M. General rules for environmental management to prioritise social–ecological systems research based on a value of information approach. J. Appl. Ecol. 56, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13425 (2019).
Mokany, K. et al. Integrating modelling of biodiversity composition and ecosystem function. Oikos 125, 10–19 (2015).
Tulloch, A. I. T., Chadès, I. & Lindenmayer, D. B. Species co-occurrence analysis predicts management outcomes for multiple threats. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 2, 465–474 (2018).
Lohr, C. A. et al. Modeling dynamics of native and invasive species to guide prioritization of management actions. Ecosphere 8, e01822 (2017).
Nicol, S., Fuller Richard, A., Iwamura, T. & Chadès, I. Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change. Proc. R. Soc. B 282, 20142984 (2015).
Blanchard, J. L., Heneghan, R. F., Everett, J. D., Trebilco, R. & Richardson, A. J. From bacteria to whales: using functional size spectra to model marine ecosystems. Trends Ecol. Evol. 32, 174–186 (2017).
Andersen, K. H., Jacobsen, N. S. & Farnsworth, K. D. The theoretical foundations for size spectrum models of fish communities. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 73, 575–588 (2015).
Nicol, S., Sabbadin, R., Peyrard, N. & Chadès, I. Finding the best management policy to eradicate invasive species from spatial ecological networks with simultaneous actions. J. Appl. Ecol. 54, 1989–1999 (2017).
Milner‐Gulland, E. J., Shea, K. & Punt, A. Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology. J. Appl. Ecol. 54, 2063–2068 (2017).
Dietze, M. C. et al. Iterative near-term ecological forecasting: needs, opportunities, and challenges. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 115, 1424–1432 (2018).
Gregr, E. J. & Chan, K. M. A. Leaps of faith: how implicit assumptions compromise the utility of ecosystem models for decision-making. BioScience 65, 43–54 (2015).
Hill, S. L. et al. Model uncertainty in the ecosystem approach to fisheries. Fish Fish. 8, 315–336 (2007).
Spence, M. A. et al. A general framework for combining ecosystem models. Fish Fish. 19, 1031–1042 (2018).
Wood, S. N. & Thomas, M. B. Super-sensitivity to structure in biological models. Proc. R. Soc. B 266, 565–570 (1999).
Runge, M. C., Converse, S. J. & Lyons, J. E. Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program. Biol. Conserv. 144, 1214–1223 (2011).
Bal, P. et al. Quantifying the value of monitoring species in multi‐species, multi‐threat systems. Methods Ecol. Evol. 9, 1706–1717 (2018).
Fulton, E. A., Blanchard, J. L., Melbourne-Thomas, J., Plagányi, É. E. & Tulloch, V. J. D. Where the ecological gaps remain, a modelers’ perspective. Front. Ecol. Evol. 7, 424 (2019).
Wallach, A. D. et al. Trophic cascades in 3D: network analysis reveals how apex predators structure ecosystems. Methods Ecol. Evol. 8, 135–142 (2017).
Ruscoe, W. A. et al. Unexpected consequences of control: competitive vs. predator release in a four‐species assemblage of invasive mammals. Ecol. Lett. 14, 1035–1042 (2011).
Bower, S. D. et al. Making tough choices: picking the appropriate conservation decision‐making tool. Conserv. Lett. 11, e12418 (2017).
Stouffer, D. B. All ecological models are wrong, but some are useful. J. Anim. Ecol. 88, 192–195 (2019).
Olsen, E. et al. Ecosystem model skill assessment. Yes we can! PLoS ONE 11, e0146467 (2016).
Cattarino, L. et al. Information uncertainty influences conservation outcomes when prioritizing multi‐action management efforts. J. Appl. Ecol. 55, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13147 (2018).
Greenville, A. C. et al. Biodiversity responds to increasing climatic extremes in a biome-specific manner. Sci. Total Environ. 634, 382–393 (2018).
de Visser, S. N., Freymann, B. P. & Olff, H. The Serengeti food web: empirical quantification and analysis of topological changes under increasing human impact. J. Anim. Ecol. 80, 484–494 (2011).
Curtsdotter, A. et al. Ecosystem function in predator–prey food webs — confronting dynamic models with empirical data. J. Anim. Ecol. 88, 196–210 (2019).
Greenville, A. C., Nguyen, V., Wardle, G. M. & Dickman, C. R. Making the most of incomplete long-term datasets: the MARSS solution. Aust. Zool. 39, 733–747 (2018).
Tulloch, A. I. T., Chadès, I. & Possingham, H. P. Accounting for complementarity to maximize monitoring power for species management. Conserv. Biol. 27, 988–999 (2013).
Araújo, M. B. & New, M. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions. Trends Ecol. Evol. 22, 42–47 (2007).
Bode, M., Bode, L., Choukroun, S., James, M. K. & Mason, L. B. Resilient reefs may exist, but can larval dispersal models find them? PLoS Biol. 16, e2005964 (2018).
Tittensor, D., Coll, M. & Walker, N. D. A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0. Geosci. Model Dev. 11, 1421–1442 (2018).
Prowse, T. A. A. et al. An efficient protocol for the global sensitivity analysis of stochastic ecological models. Ecosphere 7, e01238 (2016).
McGowan, C. P., Runge, M. C. & Larson, M. A. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models. Biol. Conserv. 144, 1400–1408 (2011).
Chee, Y. E. & Wintle, B. A. Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife. J. Appl. Ecol. 47, 1169–1178 (2010).
Plagányi, É. E. & Butterworth, D. S. The Scotia Sea krill fishery and its possible impacts on dependent predators: modeling localized depletion of prey. Ecol. Appl. 22, 748–761 (2012).
Kinzey, D. & Punt, A. E. Multispecies and single‐species models of fish population dynamics: comparing parameter estimates. Nat. Resour. Model. 22, 67–104 (2009).
Bode, M. & Possingham, H. Can culling a threatened species increase its chance of persisting? Ecol. Model. 201, 11–18 (2007).
Poudel, D. & Sandal, L. K. Stochastic optimization for multispecies fisheries in the Barents Sea. Nat. Resour. Model. 28, 219–243 (2015).
Gray, R. & Wotherspoon, S. Increasing model efficiency by dynamically changing model representations. Environ. Model. Softw. 30, 115–122 (2012).
Punt, A. E. & Hobday, D. Management strategy evaluation for rock lobster, Jasus edwardsii, off Victoria, Australia: accounting for uncertainty in stock structure. N. Zeal. J. Mar. Freshw. Res. 43, 485–509 (2009).
Colléter, M. et al. Global overview of the applications of the Ecopath with Ecosim modeling approach using the EcoBase models repository. Ecol. Model. 302, 42–53 (2015).
Angelini, S. et al. An ecosystem model of intermediate complexity to test management options for fisheries: a case study. Ecol. Model. 319, 218–232 (2016).
Tulloch, V. J., Plagányi, É. E., Matear, R., Brown, C. J. & Richardson, A. J. Ecosystem modelling to quantify the impact of historical whaling on Southern Hemisphere baleen whales. Fish. Fish. 19, 117–137 (2018).
Geary, W. L., Ritchie, E. G., Lawton, J. A., Healey, T. R. & Nimmo, D. G. Incorporating disturbance into trophic ecology: fire history shapes mesopredator suppression by an apex predator. J. Appl. Ecol. 55, https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13125 (2018).
Marcot, B. G., Holthausen, R. S., Raphael, M. G., Rowland, M. M. & Wisdom, M. J. Using Bayesian belief networks to evaluate fish and wildlife population viability under land management alternatives from an environmental impact statement. Ecol. Manag. 153, 29–42 (2001).
Elmhagen, B., Ludwig, G., Rushton, S. P., Helle, P. & Lindén, H. Top predators, mesopredators and their prey: interference ecosystems along bioclimatic productivity gradients. J. Anim. Ecol. 79, 785–794 (2010).
Ritchie, E. et al. Ecosystem restoration with teeth: what role for predators? Trends Ecol. Evol. 27, 265–271 (2012).
Borsuk, M. E., Stow, C. A. & Reckhow, K. H. A Bayesian network of eutrophication models for synthesis, prediction, and uncertainty analysis. Ecol. Model. 173, 219–239 (2004).
Christensen, V. & Walters, C. J. Ecopath with Ecosim: methods, capabilities and limitations. Ecol. Model. 172, 109–139 (2004).
Acknowledgements
W.L.G. was supported by the Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning Victoria, and by Parks Victoria. T.S.D. was supported by an Alfred Deakin Post-doctoral Research Fellowship. D.G.N. was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award. A.I.T.T. was supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Early Career Researcher Award. Silhouettes used in the Box 1 and 2 figures are taken from Phylopic.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
W.L.G. and E.G.R. conceived the ideas for the paper. W.L.G. led the writing. V.J.D.T. wrote Box 2. M.B. constructed and ran the model for Box 3. W.L.G., M.B., T.S.D., E.A.F., D.G.N., A.I.T.T., V.J.D.T. and E.G.R. all contributed to developing schematics and writing the paper.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher’s note Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Supplementary information
Supplementary Information
Supplementary Information 1, Supplementary Table 1, Supplementary Information 2, Supplementary Table 2.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Geary, W.L., Bode, M., Doherty, T.S. et al. A guide to ecosystem models and their environmental applications. Nat Ecol Evol 4, 1459–1471 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-01298-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-01298-8
This article is cited by
-
Fire suppression makes wildfires more severe and accentuates impacts of climate change and fuel accumulation
Nature Communications (2024)
-
Meeting the Growing Need for Land-Water System Modelling to Assess Land Management Actions
Environmental Management (2024)
-
Evaluating red tide effects on the West Florida Shelf using a spatiotemporal ecosystem modeling framework
Scientific Reports (2023)
-
Game Theory for Managing Evolving Systems: Challenges and Opportunities of Including Vector-Valued Strategies and Life-History Traits
Dynamic Games and Applications (2023)
-
New approaches to old problems: how to introduce ecosystem information into modern fisheries management advice
Hydrobiologia (2023)