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Future changes in rice yield over Kerala using climate change scenario from high resolution global climate model projection

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Abstract

The impact of climate change on agricultural yield is one amongst the major concerns the world is witnessing. Our study focusses on rice yield prediction for an agricultural research station in Kerala with the help of climate change scenario input from the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) Global Climate Model (GCM) projection under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). We have used Cropping System Model (CSM) Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) Rice within Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) package for predicting the yield. Our study has the novelty of using very high-resolution climate data from a model which is highly skilful in capturing the present-day climate features and climatic trends over India (in particular, over the Western Ghats), as input for simulating the future crop yield. From this study, we find that the rice yield decreases due to rise in temperature and reduction in rainfall, thereby reducing the crops maturity time in the future. Based on our results, the adaptation measures suggested to achieve better yield under future warming conditions are: (i) to opt for alternative rice varieties which have tolerance to high temperatures and consume less water, and (ii) shifting of planting date to the most appropriate window.

Highlights

  1. 1.

    Impact study of future climate change on rice yield is carried out using CERES Rice Cropping System Model after systematic validation.

  2. 2.

    Highly reliable climate change information from the projection by a 20-km resolution global climate model of MRI which is remarkably skilful in simulating the present-day Indian climate, is used as input for the crop model.

  3. 3.

    Rice yield is found to decrease in future due to rise in temperature and reduction in rainfall, thereby reducing the crops maturity time.

  4. 4.

    Adaptive measures of opting for temperature tolerant, high yielding rice varieties which consume less water and shifting of planting date to an appropriate window, are suggested to achieve better yield.

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Acknowledgements

The climate model simulations were done by the Earth Simulator of JAMSTEC, under the SOUSEI and TOUGOU Programs funded by MEXT, Japan. Crop model was taken from DSSAT software. The first author acknowledges the financial support of Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) for the Senior Research Fellowship (SRF) and AcSIR. The authors acknowledge Agricultural Research Station, Mannuthy, Kerala, and Principal Agro Meteorological Observatory, Vellanikkara, Kerala, for providing the station soil and weather data, respectively. Part of this work was also supported by MoES National Monsoon Mission Phase II Project (GAP-1013).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Multi-Scale Modelling Programme, CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore, 560 037, India

    Stella Jes Varghese, Sajani Surendran & Kavirajan Rajendran

  2. Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research (AcSIR), Ghaziabad, 201 002, India

    Stella Jes Varghese, Sajani Surendran & Kavirajan Rajendran

  3. College of Horticulture, Kerala Agricultural University, Vellanikkara, India

    B Ajithkumar

  4. Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Tsukuba, Japan

    Akio Kitoh

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  1. Stella Jes Varghese
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  2. Sajani Surendran
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Contributions

1. Conception and design: Stella Jes Varghese and Sajani Surendran. 2. Acquisition of data: Stella Jes Varghese, Sajani Surendran, B Ajithkumar, Kavirajan Rajendran and Akio Kitoh. 3. Methodology, computations and visualization: Stella Jes Varghese. 4. Verification: Stella Jes Varghese, Sajani Surendran, and B Ajithkumar. 5. Discussion and interpretation of results: Stella Jes Varghese, Sajani Surendran, B Ajithkumar and Kavirajan Rajendran. 6. Drafting the manuscript: Stella Jes Varghese and Sajani Surendran. 7. Revision of manuscript: B Ajithkumar, Kavirajan Rajendran and Akio Kitoh.

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Correspondence to Stella Jes Varghese.

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Communicated by N V Chalapathi Rao

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Varghese, S.J., Surendran, S., Ajithkumar, B. et al. Future changes in rice yield over Kerala using climate change scenario from high resolution global climate model projection. J Earth Syst Sci 129, 192 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-01459-0

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-020-01459-0

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