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Seasonality shift and streamflow flow variability trends in central India

  • Research Article - Hydrology
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Abstract

A better understanding of intra/inter-annual streamflow variability and trends enables more effective water resources planning and management for current and future needs. This paper investigates the variability and trends of streamflow data from five stations (i.e. Ashti, Chindnar, Pathgudem, Polavaram, and Tekra) in Godavari river basin, India. The streamflow data were obtained from the Indian Central Water Commission and cover more than 30 years of mean daily records (i.e. 1972–2011). The streamflow data were statistically assessed using Gamma, Generalised Extreme Value and Normal distributions to understand the probability distribution features of data at inter-annual time-scale. Quantifiable changes in observed streamflow data were identified by Sen’s slope method. Two other nonparametric, Mann–Kendall and Innovative Trend Analysis methods were also applied to validate findings from Sen’s slope trend analysis. The mean flow discharge for each month (i.e. January to December), seasonal variation (i.e. Spring, Summer, Autumn, and Winter) as well as an annual mean, annual maximum and minimum flows were analysed for each station. The results show that three stations (i.e. Ashti, Tekra, and Polavaram) demonstrate an increasing trend, notably during Winter and Spring. In contrast, two other stations (i.e. Pathgudem, Chindnar) revealed a decreasing trend almost at all seasons. A significant decreasing trend was observed at all station over Summer and Autumn seasons. Notably, all stations showed a decreasing trend in maximum flows; remarkably, Tekra station revealed the highest decreasing magnitude. Significant decrease in minimum flows was observed in two stations only, Chindnar and Pathgudem. Findings resulted from this study might be useful for water managers and decision-makers to propose more sustainable water management recommendations and practices.

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Abbreviations

GEV:

Generalised Extreme Value

β :

Sen’s slope

MK:

Mann–Kendall

ITA:

Innovative Trend Analysis

AFmax, and AFmin :

Annual maximum and minimum

CWC:

Central Water Commission

GHGs:

Greenhouse gases emissions

Q :

Streamflow

WRIS:

Water Resources Information System

GEV:

General Extreme Values

PDFs:

Normal Probabilities Distribution of Functions

H 1 :

Alternate hypothesis

H 0 :

Null hypothesis

WMO:

World Meteorological Organization

KS:

Kolmogorov–Smirnov

m3 :

Meter cubic

s:

Second

***, **, and *:

Significance at 90, 95, and 99% confidence levels

%:

Percentile

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions to improve this manuscript further. Alban Kuriqi was supported by a PhD scholarship granted by Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, IP (FCT), Portugal, under the PhD Programme FLUVIO-River Restoration and Management, Grant Number: PD/BD/114558/2016.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. CERIS, Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal

    Alban Kuriqi

  2. College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang, 443002, China

    Rawshan Ali & Xiaohua Dong

  3. Department of Petroleum, Koya Technical Institute, Erbil Polytechnic University, Erbil, Kurdistan, 44001, Iraq

    Rawshan Ali

  4. Environmental Quality, Atmospheric Science and Climate Change Research Group, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Quoc Bao Pham

  5. Faculty of Environment and Labour Safety, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Quoc Bao Pham

  6. Group of Mathematical Modelling and Numerical Simulation (GMMNS), National University of Engineering (UNI), Lima, Peru

    Julio Montenegro Gambini

  7. Department of Hydrology, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee, India

    Vivek Gupta & Yogesh Joshi

  8. Punjab Agricultural University, Regional Research Station, Bathinda- 151001, Punjab, India

    Anurag Malik

  9. Institute of Research and Development, Duy Tan University, Danang 550000, Vietnam

    Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh

  10. Faculty of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Duy Tan University, Danang 550000, Vietnam

    Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh

  11. Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology (HUTECH) 475A, Dien Bien Phu, Ward 25, Binh Thanh District, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

    Duong Tran Anh & Van Thai Nam

  12. Hubei Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center for Water Security, Wuhan, 430070, China

    Xiaohua Dong

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  1. Alban Kuriqi
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  2. Rawshan Ali
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  4. Julio Montenegro Gambini
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Correspondence to Nguyen Thi Thuy Linh.

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Kuriqi, A., Ali, R., Pham, Q.B. et al. Seasonality shift and streamflow flow variability trends in central India. Acta Geophys. 68, 1461–1475 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-020-00475-4

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