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Research and Operational Development of Numerical Weather Prediction in China

  • Advances in Meteorological Research and Operation Since the Founding of The People’s Republic of China
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Abstract

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological community. Fundamental achievements have been made in the theories, methods, and NWP model development in China, which are of certain international impacts. In this paper, the scientific and technological progress of NWP in China since 1949 is summarized. The current status and recent progress of the domestically developed NWP system—GRAPES (Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System) are presented. Through independent research and development in the past 10 years, the operational GRAPES system has been established, which includes both regional and global deterministic and ensemble prediction models, with resolutions of 3–10 km for regional and 25–50 km for global forecasts. Major improvements include establishment of a new non-hydrostatic dynamic core, setup of four-dimensional variational data assimilation, and development of associated satellite application. As members of the GRAPES system, prediction models for atmospheric chemistry and air pollution, tropical cyclones, and ocean waves have also been developed and put into operational use. The GRAPES system has been an important milestone in NWP science and technology in China.

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Wei Han, Yong Su, Lin Zhang, Xingliang Li, Hua Zhang, Jian Sun, Jing Chen, Yongzhu Liu, Lijuan Zhu, Ruichun Wang, Jincheng Wang, Liping Huang, Qiying Chen, Zhanshan Ma, Suhong Ma, Kan Dai, and Yu Wang for providing valuable supportng materials. Some of them (Jing Chen, Wei Han, Zhanshan Ma, Ruichun Wang, Lin Zhang, and Yong Su) took part in the writing of this article and some (Jincheng Wang, Kan Dai, Suhong Ma, and Yu Wang) contributed figures and tables.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. National Meteorological Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Xueshun Shen, Jianjie Wang, Zechun Li, Dehui Chen & Jiandong Gong

  2. Numerical Weather Prediction Center of the China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Xueshun Shen, Jianjie Wang, Dehui Chen & Jiandong Gong

  3. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, 100081, China

    Xueshun Shen

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  1. Xueshun Shen
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Correspondence to Jianjie Wang.

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Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFC1501900) and Middle- and Long-term Development Strategic Research Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering (2019-ZCQ-06).

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Shen, X., Wang, J., Li, Z. et al. Research and Operational Development of Numerical Weather Prediction in China. J Meteorol Res 34, 675–698 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13351-020-9847-6

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