Abstract
This paper examines the impact on the life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction when fossil-fueled ICE gasoline, diesel and natural gas vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are banned in a step-by-step manner from 2035. We examine the impact of vehicle bans on life cycle GHG emissions and on the marginal cost (MC) of emissions reduction using four different scenarios defined by hydrogen production method, renewable energy share, and infrastructure development for refueling stations. The vehicle penetration and the fuel demand are determined by a consumer choice model characterized by a multinomial logit algorithm. Our analysis found that vehicle bans significantly promote battery electric vehicles (BEVs) for mini-sized vehicles and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) for light and heavy-duty vehicles. A vehicle ban that excludes BEVs and FCVs from 2035 under an enhanced infrastructure plan can reduce the life cycle GHG emissions as much as 438 million tonnes by 2060 compared to the 2017 level. The MC of the life cycle GHG mitigation decreases continuously and reaches as low as $482 per tonne CO2eq in 2060. However, if PHEVs are excluded from the ban, the life cycle GHG emissions are reduced more by 88 Mt-CO2eq in 2060 at a lower MC of $122 per tonne CO2eq. This is due to decreases in GHG emissions from VP where the replacement of PHEVs for BEVs and FCVs reduces the production of batteries and fuel cells.
Graphic abstract
The main structure of the model.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
Abbreviations
- BaU:
-
Business as usual
- BEV:
-
Battery electric vehicle
- Bt-CO2eq:
-
Billion tonnes-CO2 equivalent
- CCS:
-
Carbon capture storage
- FCV:
-
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicle
- GDP:
-
Gross domestic product
- GHG:
-
Greenhouse gas
- HDV:
-
Heavy-duty vehicle
- HEV:
-
Hybrid electric vehicle
- ICEV:
-
Internal combustion engine vehicle
- LC:
-
Life cycle
- LDV:
-
Light-duty vehicle
- LEV:
-
Low-emission vehicle
- MC:
-
Marginal cost
- Mt-CO2eq:
-
Million tonnes-CO2 equivalent
- MV:
-
Mini-sized vehicle
- NGV:
-
Natural gas vehicle
- PHEV:
-
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle
- TtW:
-
Tank-to-wheel
- VP:
-
Vehicle production
- WtT:
-
Well-to-tank
- WtW:
-
Well-to-wheel
References
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) (2015) Long term energy demand and supply outlooks (in Japanese). ANRE Web. http://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/committee/council/basic_policy_subcommittee/mitoshi/cost_wg/006/pdf/006_05.pdf. Accessed 5 Sept 2018
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) (2016) Strategic roadmap to hydrogen and fuel cell (in Japanese)
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) (2017) Renewable energy: disclosure of information a (in Japanese). ANRE Web. https://www.fit-portal.go.jp/PublicInfoSummary. Accessed 15 Apr 2018
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) (2018a) On the acceleration for the reduction in cost of power generation (in Japanese). METI Web. https://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/enecho/denryoku_gas/saisei_kano/pdf/008_02_00.pdf. Accessed 15 July 2018
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) (2018b) Status of nuclear power plants in japan (in Japanese). ANRE Web. www.enecho.meti.go.jp/category/electricity_and_gas/nuclear/001/pdf/001_02_001.pdf. Accessed 20 July 2018
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) (2018c) Provision for energy mix in 2030: whole disposition (in Japanese). ANRE Web. https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/committee/council/basic_policy_subcommittee/025/pdf/025_008.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2019
Agency for Natural Resources and Energy (ANRE) (2019) Action plan of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry about hydrogen and fuel cells (in Japanese). METI Web. https://www.meti.go.jp/shingikai/energy_environment/suiso_nenryo_dennchi_fukyu/pdf/006_01_00.pdf. Accessed 20 June 2019
Automobile Inspection and Registration Information Association (AIRIA) (2019) Statistics for registered vehicles (in Japanese). https://www.airia.or.jp/publish/statistics/number.html. AIRIA Web. Accessed 15 Sept 2019
Energy Data and Modelling Center The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (EDMC IEEJ) (2017) World greenhouse gas emissions. In: handbook of Japan’s and world energy and economic statistics. The Energy Conservation Center, Japan, Tokyo
European Union (EU) (2014) Study on the development of water electrolysis in the European Union. The Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking Web. https://www.fch.europa.eu/sites/default/files/study%20electrolyser_0-Logos_0_0.pdf. Accessed 10 Mar 2019
European Union (EU) (2018) Parliament pushed for cleaner cars on EU roads by 2030. European Parliament Web. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20180925IPR14306/parliament-pushes-for-cleaner-cars-on-eu-roads-by-2030. Accessed 5 May 2019
Gl Pasaoglu, Harrison G, Jones L, Hill A, Beaudet A, Thiel C (2016) A system dynamics based market agent model simulating future powertrain technology transition: scenarios in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector. Techno Forecast Soc Change 104:133–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.028
Gonzalez Palencia JC, Araki M, Shiga S (2016) Energy, environmental and economic impact of mini-sized and zero-emission vehicle diffusion on a light-duty vehicle fleet. Appl Energy 181:96–109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.08.045
International Energy Agency (IEA) (2017) Global energy & CO2 status report 2017. https://www.connaissancedesenergies.org/sites/default/files/pdf-actualites/geco2017.pdf. Accessed 25 May 2019
Ishizaki K, Nakano M (2018) The environmental performance of current mass-produced passenger vehicles in Japan (in Japanese). Trans JSME. https://doi.org/10.1299/transjsme.18-00050
Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association (JAMA) (2019) CO2 emissions from vehicle production (in Japanese). JAMA Web. www.jama.or.jp/eco/earth/earth=05=g01.html. Accessed 1 Mar 2019
Japan Gas Association (JGA) (2017) Toward promotion of natural gas vehicles: 2017-2018 (in Japanese). JGA, Tokyo
Japan Gas Association (JGA) (2019): Penetration of natural gas vehicles. (in Japanese). https://www.gas.or.jp/ngvj/spread/index.html. Accessed 10 Apr 2019
Japan LP Gas Association (JLPGA) (2017) List of caloric values and CO2 emissions of fuels (in Japanese). http://www.j-lpgas.gr.jp/nenten/data/co2_list.pdf. JLPGA Web. Accessed 5 Mar 2019
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI, Automobile Division Manufacturing Industries Bureau) (2016a) Policy measures for EV and PHV (in Japanese)
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) (2015a) Long-term energy demand supply outlook: evaluation on electricity generation cost (in Japanese), Report for Advisory Committee for Energy and Resources
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) (2015b) Top-runner system (in Japanese). https://www.enecho.meti.go.jp/category/saving_and_new/saving/data/toprunner2015j.pdf. Accessed 11 May 2019
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) (2016b) Expenses for infrastructure development for promoting the streamlining of energy utilization: report on infrastructure of EV PHV charging stations (in Japanese)
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) (2016c) Report of EV and PHV roadmap (in Japanese)
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) (2016d): Roadmap on technology for the next generation thermal power generation (in Japanese). NDL Web. https://warp.da.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/10159415/www.meti.go.jp/press/2016/06/20160630003/20160630003-1.pdf. Accessed 5 Apr 2018
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) (2018) Expert committee for the ideal way of demonstration and research project on CCS (in Japanese). METI Web. http://www.meti.go.jp/committee/kenkyukai/sangi/ccs_jissho/pdf/001_05_00.pdf. Accessed 20 Sept 2018
Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) (2019) Operating cost for promoting clean energy vehicles: subsidies (in Japanese). METI Web. https://www.meti.go.jp/main/yosangaisan/fy2019/pr/en/seizou_taka_03.pdf. Accessed 20 July 2019
Japanese Ministry of Environment (MOE) (2009) Trend of automobiles development and forecast of market penetration (in Japanese). MOE Web. https://www.env.go.jp/air/report/h21-01/2.pdf. Accessed 6 Apr 2019
Japanese Ministry of Environment (MOE) (2016) Pledged draft on greenhouse gas emissions (in Japanese). MOE Web. https://www.env.go.jp/earth/ondanka/ghg/mat01_indc.pdf. Accessed 10 May 2019
Japanese Ministry of Environment (MOE) (2019) Greenhouse gas emissions in fiscal year 2017 (in Japanese). MOE Web. https://www.env.go.jp/earth/ondanka/ghg-mrv/emissions/results/honbun2017-2.pdf. Accessed 25 June 2019
Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) (2009) Automobile transportation statistical yearbook 2009 (in Japanese). MLIT Web. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&layout=datalist&toukei=00600330&kikan=00600&tstat=000001078083&cycle=8&year=20091&month=0&stat_infid=000031848854&result_back=1&tclass1val=0. Accessed 10 June 2019
Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) (2018) Automobile fuel consumption yearbook 2018 (in Japanese). MLIT Web. https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/files?page=1&layout=datalist&toukei=00600370&kikan=00600&tstat=000001051698&cycle=8&result_page=1&tclass1val=0. Accessed 10 June 2019
Kawamoto R, Mochizuki H, Moriguchi Y, Nakano T, Motohashi M, Sakai Y, Inaba A (2019) Estimation of CO2 emissions of internal combustion engine vehicle and battery electric vehicle using LCA. Sustainability. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11092690
Knittle C (2012) Leveling the playing field for natural gas in transportation. Discussion Paper 2012-03, The Hamilton Project, Brookings, Washington, DC
Leaver J, Gillingham K (2010) Economic impact of the integration of alternative vehicle technologies into the New Zealand vehicle fleet. J Clean Prod 18:908–916. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clepro.2009.10.018
Leaver J, Watabe A (2016) Transition to hydrogen fuel cell and battery electric vehicle fleets in Japan and New Zealand. In: Proceedings of the 21st world hydrogen energy conference. Zaragoza, Spain
Leaver J, Gillingham K, Leaver L (2009) Assessment of primary impacts of a hydrogen economy in New Zealand using UniSyD. Int J Hydrogen Energy 34(7):2855–2865. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2009.01.063
Leaver J, Leaver L, Gillingham K, Bagllino A (2012) A systems dynamics modelling of New Zealand’s energy economy: a guide to UniSyD 5.1. https://books.google.co.nz/books/about/System_Dynamics_Modelling_of_New_Zealand.html?id=GzZQMwEACAAJ&redir_esc=y
Mizuho Information and Research Institute, Inc (2016) Evaluation report on life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from hydrogen (in Japanese). Mizuho IR Web. https://www.mizuho-ir.co.jp/publication/report/2016/pdf/wttghg1612.pdf. Accessed 1 June 2019
National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS) (2019) 2019 Statistical information on population (in Japanese) IPSSWeb. http://www.ipss.go.jp. Accessed 1 May 2019
National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) (2014) Hydrogen station compression, storage, and dispensing technical status and costs. Technical Report. NREL/BK-6A10-58564, Golden, Colorado
NEL (2019) The World’s most efficient and reliable electrolysers. Energy Storage Europe Web. https://www.eseexpo.de/vis-content/event-energy2019/exh-energy2019.2621590/Energy-Storage-Europe-2019-Nel-Hydrogen-Paper-energy2019.2621590-kPvvuuRHSyuOm7zdR0AkdA.pdf. Accessed 20 Sept 2019
New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization (NEDO) (2015) Toward the formulation of technical strategies for the field of vehicle storage batteries (in Japanese). TSC Foresight 5:1–21
Next Generation Vehicle Promotion Center (NGVPC) (2017) Trends in infrastructure. NGVPC Web. http://www.cev-pc.or.jp/english/infrastructure.html. Accessed 7 Aug 2019
Next Generation Vehicle Promotion Center (NGVPC) (2019a) EV and PHEV Statistics. NGVPC Web. http://www.cev-pc.or.jp/tokei/hanbai.html. Accessed 7 Aug 2019
Next Generation Vehicle Promotion Center (NGVPC) (2019b) Clean vehicle rebates (in Japanese). NGVPC Web. http://www.cev-pc.or.jp/hojo/pdf/h31/H31_meigaragotojougen.pdf. Accessed 7 Aug 2019
Nissan Motor Corporation (2019) Battery charging and driving range of Nissan Leaf (in Japanese). Nissan Web. https://www3.nissan.co.jp/vehicles/new/leaf/charge.html. Accessed 1 Oct 2019
Nomura Research Institute (NRI) (2015) The registered passenger vehicles decline outweighs the number of households decreasing by 9% after 15 years (in Japanese). NRI Web. https://www.nri.com/-/media/Corporate/jp/Files/PDF/news/newsrelease/cc/2015/150605.pdf. Accessed 1 June 2019
Nykvist B, Nilsson M (2015) Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles. Nat Clim Change 5:329–332. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2564
Oshiro K, Matsui T (2015) Diffusion of low emission vehicles and their impact of CO2 emission reduction in Japan. Energy Policy 81:215–225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.09.010
Park S, Kim J, Lee D (2011) Development of a market penetration forecasting model for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles considering infrastructure and cost reduction effects. Energy Policy 39:3307–3315. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.03.021
Riesz J, Sotiriadis C, Amback D, Donovan S (2016) Qualifying the costs of a rapid transition to electric vehicles. Appl Energy 180:287–300. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.07.131
Sano K, Tomioka K, Ooi Y (2018) LCA study of automobile recycling: CO2 reduction by recycling of each material (in Japanese). Trans Soc Automot Eng Jpn 49:845–848. https://doi.org/10.11351/jsaeronbun.49.845
Shafiei E, Davidsdottir B, Leaver J, Stefansson H (2014) Potential impact of transition to a low-carbon transport system in Iceland. Energy Policy 69:127–142. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.03.013
Shafiei E, Davidsdottir B, Leaver J, Stefansson H, Asgeirsson EI (2017a) Energy, economic, and mitigation cost implications of transition toward a carbon-neutral transport sector: a simulation-based comparison between hydrogen and electricity. J Clean Prod 141:237–247. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.clepro.2016.09.064
Shafiei E, Davidsdottir B, Leaver J, Stefansson H, Asgeirsson EI (2017b) Cost-effectiveness analysis of inducing green vehicles to achieve deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand. J Clean Prod 150:339–351. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.03.032
Shafiei E, Davidsdottir B, Fazeli R, Leaver J, Stefansson H, Asgeirsson EI (2018) Macroeconomic effects of fiscal incentives to promote electric vehicles in Iceland: implications for government and consumer costs. Energy Policy 114:431–443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.12.034
Shafiei E, Davidsdottir B, Stefansson H, Asgeirsson EI, Fazeli R, Gestsson MH, Leaver J (2019) Simulation-based appraisal of tax-induced electro-mobility promotion in Iceland and prospects for energy-economic development. Energy Policy 133:110894. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110894
Toyota Motor Corporation (2004) Well-to-wheel analysis of greenhouse gas emissions of automotive fuels in the japanese context- Well-to-Tank Report
Watabe A, Leaver J, Ishida H, Shafiei E (2019) Impact of low emissions vehicles on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Japan. Energy Policy 130:227–242. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.03.057
Yabe K, Shinoda Y, Seki T, Tanaka H, Akisawa A (2012) Market penetration speed and effects on CO2 reduction of electric vehicles and plug-in electric vehicles in Japan. Energy Policy 45:529–540. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.068
Yamada Y, Ariyama Y, Ino H, Harada K (2005) Life cycle assessment (Energy consumption and CO2 emission) of fuel cell vehicle in comparison with gasoline and natural gas vehicles (in Japanese). J Jpn Inst Metals 69:237–240
Acknowledgements
The UniSyD_JP model was developed while the authors were visiting Unitec Institute of Technology (Unitec), New Zealand. We would like to thank Unitec for financial support and generous hospitality while visiting Unitec.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Conflicts of interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
Additional information
Publisher's Note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Watabe, A., Leaver, J., Shafiei, E. et al. Life cycle emissions assessment of transition to low-carbon vehicles in Japan: combined effects of banning fossil-fueled vehicles and enhancing green hydrogen and electricity. Clean Techn Environ Policy 22, 1775–1793 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-020-01917-9
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-020-01917-9