Abstract
In this article we solve the problem of maximizing the expected utility of future consumption and terminal wealth to determine the optimal pension or life-cycle fund strategy for a cohort of pension fund investors. The setup is strongly related to a DC pension plan where additionally (individual) consumption is taken into account. The consumption rate is subject to a time-varying minimum level and terminal wealth is subject to a terminal floor. Moreover, the preference between consumption and terminal wealth as well as the intertemporal coefficient of risk aversion are time-varying and therefore depend on the age of the considered pension cohort. The optimal consumption and investment policies are calculated in the case of a Black–Scholes financial market framework and hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) utility functions. We generalize Ye (American control conference, 2008) by adding an age-dependent coefficient of risk aversion and extend Steffensen (J Econ Dyn Control 35(5):659–667, 2011), Hentschel (Planning for individual retirement: optimal consumption, investment and retirement timing under different preferences and habit persistence. Ph.D. thesis, Ulm University, 2016) and Aase (Stochastics 89(1):115–141, 2017) by considering consumption in combination with terminal wealth and allowing for consumption and terminal wealth floors via an application of HARA utility functions. A case study on fitting several models to realistic, time-dependent life-cycle consumption and relative investment profiles shows that only our extended model with time-varying preference parameters provides sufficient flexibility for an adequate fit. This is of particular interest to life-cycle products for (private) pension investments or pension insurance in general.
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Notes
For completeness, we would like to emphasize that the continuity assumption is only required to find a nice representation of the solution for the optimal investment strategy later (cf. Theorem 1). A generalized version in the case of a discontinuous b(t) can be found at the end of the proof of Theorem 1.
We would like to point out that for the sake of calibration and illustration we select this specific exemplary setting that of course does not picture all potential use cases. We fit our model to those exemplary average target curves such that we have control and orientation on the expectations (consumption and investment). Based upon this, the portfolio is managed optimally and dynamically over time. In general, the target curves can be chosen differently for each specific application. If one is interested in explaining some specific behavior patterns such as described by the non-participation or the moderate equity holdings puzzle, a different choice for the average target curves (if data is available) could be used, or different utility functions could be applied such as an S-shaped function that arises from Cumulative Prospect Theory (cf. [43, 70]).
For two integrable functions f(x) and g(x) on the interval (a, b), where f(x) is continuous and g(x) does not change sign on (a, b), there exists \(d \in (a,b)\) such that
$$\begin{aligned} \int _{a}^{b} f(x) g(x) dx = f(d) \int _{a}^{b} g(x) dx. \end{aligned}$$
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Acknowledgements
Pavel V. Shevchenko acknowledges the support of Australian Research Council’s Discovery Projects funding scheme (Project Number DP160103489).
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A Proofs
A Proofs
1.1 A.1 The consumption problem
Proof of Theorem 1
The Lagrangian of the Problem (11) subject to (12) is
By the structure of the utility function, the optimal \(c_{1}\) fulfills \(c_{1}(t;v_{1}) > \bar{c}(t)\) and thus the first order conditions involve existence of a Lagrange multiplier \(\lambda _{1} = \lambda _{1}(v_{1}) > 0\) such that the optimal \(c_{1}\) maximizes \(\mathcal {L}(c,\lambda _{1})\) and such that complementary slackness holds true. Hence it can be shown that the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions besides the first derivative condition are satisfied. Following [1], let \(\nabla _{h} \mathcal {L}(c,\lambda _{1};h)\) denote the directional derivative of \(\mathcal {L}(c,\lambda _{1})\) in the feasible direction h. The directional derivative of a function f in the direction h is generally defined by
If f is differentiable at x this results in
In our case, for the inner function it holds
By the dominated convergence theorem, which allows interchanging expectation and differentiation, the first order condition gives
for all feasible h. In order to fulfill this condition for any h, the optimal consumption rate process must be
Since \(U_{1}(t,c)\) strictly increases in c, the budget constraint (12) for the optimal solution in (11) turns to equality, i.e.
When plugging in (A.1) and by Fubini, the budget condition after simple calculations turns into
Here we used that \(\tilde{Z}(t)\) is a log-normal random variable and so is \(\tilde{Z}(t)^{\frac{b(t)}{b(t)-1}}\). For any \(v_{1} > F_{1}(0) = \int _{0}^{T} e^{- r t} \left( \bar{c}(t) - y(t)\right) dt\), the above equality determines \(\lambda _{1} > 0\) uniquely, since the integral in which \(\lambda _{1}\) appears strictly decreases in \(\lambda _{1}\) and has the limits 0 and \(\infty \) as \(\lambda _{1}\) approaches \(\infty \) and 0. It follows immediately that the condition \(v_{1} > \int _{0}^{T} e^{- r t} \left( \bar{c}(t) - y(t)\right) dt\) in (13) is inevitable. The optimal wealth process \(V_{1}(t ; v_{1})\) which arises by applying \(c_{1}(t ; v_{1})\) is
\(\tilde{Z}(s)\) can be written as \(\frac{\tilde{Z}(s)}{\tilde{Z}(t)} \tilde{Z}(t)\) where \(\frac{\tilde{Z}(s)}{\tilde{Z}(t)}\) is independent of \(\mathcal {F}_{t}\) and \(\tilde{Z}(t)\) is \(\mathcal {F}_{t}\)-measurable. Therefore it follows
for any \(\eta \in \mathbb {R}\), where we used that \(\frac{\tilde{Z}(s)}{\tilde{Z}(t)}\) and thus \(\left( \frac{\tilde{Z}(s)}{\tilde{Z}(t)}\right) ^{\eta }\) are log-normally distributed. Define the function g by
then the optimal wealth process is given by
with \(F_{1}(t)\) defined in (13). The dynamics can be calculated as
Moreover, after differentiation we obtain
By applying Itô’s formula to \(d \left( \tilde{Z}(t)^{\frac{1}{b(s)-1}}\right) \), we receive
Define
In summary, the dynamics of the optimal wealth process can be calculated to be
with drift
By (A.1) it follows
Hence
In order to determine the optimal investment strategy \(\pi _{1}(t ; v_{1})\) to Problem (11) we compare the optimal wealth dynamics in (4) and (A.3):
Matching the diffusion terms yields the equality
which simultaneously matches the drift terms. Therefore, if we insert the formula for Y(t), we obtain
which holds true for a general function b(t) that does not have to be continuous. If b(t) is a continuous function, by the first mean value theorem for integralsFootnote 3 it furthermore follows that there exists \(\tilde{t}_{1} \in (t,T)\) such that
This determines the optimal investment strategy to be
\(\square \)
Proof of Theorem 2
Firstly, after simple calculations the value function of this problem is
where \(\lambda _{1}\) is subject to (14). From differentiating both sides of Eq. (14) with respect to \(v_{1}\) we derive
This helps to identify \(\mathcal {V}_{1}^{\prime }(v_{1})\) to be
Equation (A.6) further implies concavity of \(\mathcal {V}_{1}(v_{1})\) as after differentiation we receive
and thus
\(\square \)
1.2 A.2 The terminal wealth problem
Proof of Theorem 3
The Lagrangian of the Problem (16) subject to (17) is
First of all, it is clear that \({c_{2}(t ; v_{2}) \equiv 0}\). By the structure of the utility function, the optimal \(V_{2}\) fulfills \(V_{2}(T;v_{2}) > F\) and thus the first order conditions involve existence of a Lagrange multiplier \(\lambda _{2} = \lambda _{2}(v_{2}) > 0\) such that the optimal \(V_{2}\) maximizes \(\mathcal {L}(V,\lambda _{2})\) and such that complementary slackness holds true. Hence it can be shown that the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker conditions besides the first derivative condition are satisfied. By the dominated convergence theorem, the first order condition with respect to the directional derivative gives
which has to be satisfied for all suitable h; hence the optimal terminal wealth has to fulfill
Since \(U_{2}(V)\) strictly increases in V, complementary slackness implies equality for the budget constraint
Using (A.7) we obtain after straightforward calculations
Solving for \(\lambda _{2}\) yields
where \({v_{2} > F_{2}(0) = e^{- r T} F}\) in (18) is required. Plugging this back into (A.7), the optimal terminal wealth becomes
The optimal wealth process replicates \(V_{2}(T ; v_{2})\) and is uniquely given by
with \(F_{2}(t)\) defined in (18). Recall that
It follows by Itô
Then, after simple transformations and using (A.10), the optimal wealth dynamics can be calculated as
Comparing the diffusion term with the one from (4) for \(y(t) \equiv 0\) implies
which automatically matches the drifts iff \({c_{2}(t ; v_{2}) \equiv 0}\). \(\square \)
Proof of Theorem 4
Using the previous results, the value function of this problem can simply be calculated as
This implies
Due to the assumption \({v_{2} - F_{2}(0) > 0}\) in (18), it is straightforward that \({\mathcal {V}_{2}^{\prime \prime }(v_{2}) = \lambda _{2}^{\prime } < 0}\):
\(\square \)
1.3 A.3 Optimal merging of the individual solutions
Proof of Theorem 5
The proof can be performed by simply following the line of [44, 49]. \(\square \)
Proof of Lemma 1
In accordance with Theorem 5 and by expressing \(v_{2} = v_{0} - v_{1}\), the candidate for the optimal \({v_{1}^{\star }}\) is the one that satisfies the first order derivative condition on the budget
such that \({v_{1}^{\star } \ge F_{1}(0)}\), \({v_{2}^{\star } = v_{0} - v_{1}^{\star }}\) with \({v_{2}^{\star } \ge F_{2}(0)}\); thus \({F_{1}(0) \le v_{1}^{\star } \le v_{0} - F_{2}(0)}\). Theorems 2 and 4 tell that \(\mathcal {V}_{1}(v_{1})\) and \(\mathcal {V}_{2}(v_{2})\) are strictly concave functions in \(v_{1}\) respectively \(v_{2}\). Therefore, it follows
This implies that the candidates \(v_{1}^{\star }\) and \({v_{2}^{\star } = v_{0} - v_{1}^{\star }}\) are the solution when the constraint \(F_{1}(0) \le v_{1}^{\star } \le v_{0} - F_{2}(0)\) applies. \(\square \)
Proof of Lemma 2
In accordance with Theorems 2 and 4 we have
By equating \(\mathcal {V}_{1}^{\prime }(v_{1})\) and \(\mathcal {V}_{2}^{\prime }(v_{0} - v_{1})\) we obtain
Inserting \(\lambda _{1}\) in Eq. (14), the optimal \(v_{1}^{\star }\) is the solution to
where the continuous function \(\chi (t)\) is defined by
It remains to verify \({F_{1}(0) \le v_{1}^{\star } \le v_{0} - F_{2}(0)}\) and uniqueness of \(v_{1}^{\star }\). For this sake, define the function f by
\(v_{1}^{\star }\) is the root of the function f, i.e. \({f(v_{1}^{\star }) = 0}\), if it holds \({v_{1}^{\star } \ge F_{1}(0)}\). f is continuous in x, the exponent \({\frac{\hat{b}-1}{b(t)-1}}\) within the first integral is positive. Furthermore, due to \({v_{0} > F(0)}\) claimed in (9) and \({F(t) = F_{1}(t) + F_{2}(t)}\), we have for the limits
Note, \({F_{1}(0) \le v_{1} = v_{0} - v_{2} \le v_{0} - F_{2}(0)}\) for general \(v_{1}\) and \(v_{2}\). Additionally, f is strictly monotone increasing in x since
We conclude that there exists a unique root \({x \in [F_{1}(0), v_{0} - F_{2}(0)]}\) such that \({f(x) = 0}\). Therefore, we conclude that the optimal \(v_{1}^{*}\) and \(v_{2}^{\star } = v_{0} - v_{1}^{*}\) exist and are unique. \(v_{1}^{*}\) is the solution to Eq. (20). The optimal Lagrange multiplier \(\lambda _{1}^{\star } = \lambda _{1}(v_{1}^{\star })\) is then given by
\(\square \)
Proof of Theorem 6
Starting with \({V^{\star }(t; v_{0}) = V_{1}(t;v_{1}^{\star }) + V_{2}(t;v_{2}^{\star })}\) we compare the dynamics of both sides of the equation:
Comparing the diffusion terms in (A.12), by inserting the wealth sde (4) for \(V^{\star }(t; v_{0})\), \(V_{1}(t;v_{1}^{\star })\) and \(V_{2}(t;v_{2}^{\star })\) (with \(y(t) \equiv 0\) for \(V_{2}(t;v_{2}^{\star })\)), gives
Inserting this back and comparing the drift terms finally leads to
Notice that the pair \({(\hat{\pi }^{\star },c^{\star })}\) is admissible, i.e. \({(\hat{\pi }^{\star },c^{\star }) \in \varLambda }\) because \({(\hat{\pi }_{1},c_{1}) \in \varLambda _{1}}\) and \({(\hat{\pi }_{2},0) \in \varLambda _{2}}\) which implies
Using Lemma 2 and the solutions in Theorems 1 and 3 we arrive at the stated results in Theorem 6 after straightforward calculations for the utility setup in (8). \(\square \)
Proof of Remark 4
The formula for the optimal investment strategy is straightforward from Theorem 6 as \({b(\tilde{t}_{1}^{\star }) \equiv \hat{b}}\) and \({V^{\star }(t ; v_{0}) = V_{1}(t ; v_{1}^{\star }) + V_{2}(t ; v_{2}^{\star })}\) for any \(t \in [0,T]\). The optimal \(v_{1}^{\star }\) and the corresponding \(g(s,t; v_{1}^{\star })\) can be determined by Lemma 2, \(V_{1}(t ; v_{1}^{\star })\), \(V_{2}(t ; v_{2}^{\star })\) and thus \(V^{\star }(t ; v_{0})\) then follow from Theorem 6 with simple calculations. Using again Theorem 6 finally leads to the stated optimal consumption rate \(c^{\star }(t;v_{0})\). \(\square \)
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Lichtenstern, A., Shevchenko, P.V. & Zagst, R. Optimal life-cycle consumption and investment decisions under age-dependent risk preferences. Math Finan Econ 15, 275–313 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11579-020-00276-9
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11579-020-00276-9
Keywords
- Pension investments
- Optimal life-cycle consumption and investment
- Age-dependent risk aversion
- HARA utility function
- Martingale method