Abstract
Thermal stress poses significant direct and indirect risks to human health. Under climate change, both mean temperature and the frequency and intensity of extreme thermal stress events are projected to increase. Located within an arid to semi-arid region, Iran is anticipated to experience particularly intense temperature and humidity changes under climate change, potentially heightening the public health challenges associated with thermal stress. To facilitate improved adaptation to these thermal threats, accurate high spatial resolution thermal heat stress risk maps are important. This study combines various climate indices to produce such a thermal stress risk map for the reference period 1980–2010, with RCP4.5 projections for the period 2020–2049. Although the results of the various indices are statistically significantly correlated, each index returned a remarkably different spatial distribution and risk classification. Therefore, a fuzzy approach was followed through a geographical information system (GIS) to combine the results of the five bioclimatic indices and prepare a final thermal stress risk map. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, the results indicate a notable 24.5% reduction in the areas susceptible to thermal stress at the high-risk and very high–risk levels, compared with the reference period. The lowest projected risk is for the central parts of Iran, while the southern and northern coasts of Iran were the zones of the highest risk, for which adaptation responses are most necessary.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Aboubakri, O., Khanjani, N., Jahani, Y., & Bakhtiari, B. (2019). Attributable risk of mortality associated with heat and heat waves: a time-series study in Kerman, Iran during 2005–2017. Journal of Thermal Biology, 82, 76–82.
Ahmadnezhad, E., HOLAKOUEI, N. K., Ardalan, A., MAHMOUDI, M., YOUNESIAN, M., Naddafi, K., & Mesdaghinia, A. R. (2013). Excess mortality during heat waves, Tehran Iran: an ecological time-series study. Journal of Research in Health Science., 13(1), 24–31.
Alexander, L. V., Zhang, X., Peterson, T. C., Caesar, J., Gleason, B., Klein Tank, A. M. G., Haylock, M., Collins, D., Trewin, B., Rahimzadeh, F., & Tagipour, A. (2006). Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres., 111(D5).
Anbalagan, R., Kumar, R., Lakshmanan, K., Parida, S., & Neethu, S. (2015). Landslide hazard zonation mapping using frequency ratio and fuzzy logic approach, a case study of Lachung Valley, Sikkim. Geoenvironmental Disasters, 2, 6.
Anderson, G. B., Bell, M. L., & Peng, R. D. (2013). Methods to calculate the heat index as an exposure metric in environmental health research. Environmental Health Perspectives., 121, 1111–1119.
Barriopedro, D. E. M., Fischer, J., Luterbacher, J., Trigo, R. M., & Garcia-Herrera, R. (2011). The hot summer of 2010: redrawing the temperature record map of Europe. Science., 332, 220–224.
Bedford, T., (1951). Equivalent temperature, what it is, how it’s measured. Heating, Piping. Air conditioning. Aug. p.87-91
Buscail, C., Upegui, E., & Viel, J. F. (2012). Mapping heatwave health risk at the community level for public health action. International Journal of Health Geographics, 11(1), 38.
Chow, W. T. L., Snaba, A., Heng, S. L., & Roth, M. (2016). Assessment of measured and perceived microclimates within a tropical urban forest. Urban For Urban Green., 16, 62–75.
Dadbakhsh, M., Khanjani, N., Bahrampour, A., & Haghighi, P. S. (2017). Death from respiratory diseases and temperature in Shiraz, Iran (2006–2011). International Journal of Biometeorology., 61(2), 239–246.
Darand, M., Garcia-Herrera, R., Asakereh, H., Amiria, R., Barriopedrob, D. (2018) Synoptic conditions leading to extremely warm periods in Western Iran. International Journal of Climatology 38:307–319.
Dufton, A. F. (1932). Equivalent temperature and its measurement, B R Technical Paper 13. HMSO.
Dufton, A. F. (1933). The use of kata thermometers for the measurement of equivalent temperature. Journal of Hygiene, Camb, 33, 349.
Feizizadeh, B., Roodposhti, M. S., Jankowski, P., & Blaschke, T. (2014). A GIS-based extended fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation for landslide susceptibility mapping. Computers & Geosciences., 73, 208–221.
Ghanghermeh, A., Roshan, G., Orosa, J. A., Calvo-Rolle, J. L., & Costa, Á. M. (2013). New climatic indicators for improving urban sprawl: a case study of Tehran city. Entropy., 15, 999–1013.
Ghanghermeh, A., Roshan, G., Orosa, J. A., & Costa, Á. M. (2019). Analysis and comparison of spatial–temporal entropy variability of Tehran city microclimate based on climate change scenarios. Entropy., 21, 13.
Ghobadi, A., Khosravi, M., & Tavousi, T. (2018). Surveying of heat waves impact on the urban heat islands: case study, the Karaj City in Iran. Urban climate., 24, 600–615.
Hejazizadeh, Z., & Karbalaee Doree, A. (2016). Introduction to thermal climate comfort and its indices. Tehran: Academic and Iranian geographical association publisher 468pp.
Hirashima, S., Assis, E., & Nikolopoulou, M. (2016). Daytime thermal comfort in urban spaces: a field study in Brazil. Build. Environ., 107, 245–253.
Hirashima, S., Katzschner, A., Ferreira, D., Assis, E., & Katzschner, L. (2018). Thermal comfort comparison and evaluation in different climates. Urban Climate, 23, 219–230.
Ikäheimo, T. M. (2014). The effects of temperature on human health. Center for Environmental and Respiratory Health Research, WHO Collaborating Center in Global Change, Environment and Public health. Institute of Health Sciences. University of Oulu.
Ilanloo, M. (2011). A comparative study of fuzzy logic approach for landslide susceptibility mapping using GIS: an experience of Karaj dam basin in Iran. Procedia Social and Behavioral Sciences., 19, 668–676.
Karandish, F., & Mousavi, S. S. (2018). Climate change uncertainty and risk assessment in Iran during twenty-first century: evapotranspiration and green water deficit analysis. Theoretical and Applied Climatology., 131, 777–791.
Kourgialas, N. N., George, P., & Karatzas, G. P. (2011). Flood management and a GIS modelling method to assess flood-hazard areas—a case study. Hydrological Sciences Journal., 56(2), 212–225.
Kovács, A., Unger, J., Gál, C. V., & Kántor, N. (2016). Adjustment of the thermal component of two tourism climatological assessment tools using thermal perception and preference surveys from Hungary. Theoretical and Applied Climatology., 125, 113–130.
Kovats, R. S., & Hajat, S. (2008). Heat stress and public health: a critical review. Annual Review of Public Health, 29, 41–55.
Krüger, E., Rossi, F., & Drach, P. (2017). Calibration of the physiological equivalent temperature index for three different climatic regions. International Journal of Biometeorology., 1–14.
Lai, D., Guo, D., Hou, Y., Lin, C., & Chen, Q. (2014). Studies of outdoor thermal comfort in northern China. Build. Environ., 77, 110e118.
Lin, T. P., & Matzarakis, A. (2008). Tourism climate and thermal comfort in Sun Moon Lake, Taiwan. International Journal of Biometeorology, 52, 281–290.
Luber, G., & McGeehin, M. (2009). Climate change and extreme heat events. American Journal of Preventative Medicine., 35(5), 429–435.
Luterbacher, J., Werner, J. P., Smerdon, J. E., Fernández-Donado, L., González-Rouco, F. J., Barriopedro, D., Ljungqvist, F. C., Büntgen, U., Zorita, E., Wagner, S., & Esper, J. (2016). European summer temperatures since Roman times. Environmental Research Letters, 11(2), 024001.
Mather, J. R. (1974). Climatology: fundamentals and application. USA: McGraw-Hill Book Company https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat-index. Accessed 18 November 2018.
McCollor, D., & Stull, R. (2008). Hydrometeorological accuracy enhancement via post processing of numerical weather forecasts in complex terrain. Weather Forecast, 23, 131–144.
Mckinnon, K. A., Rhines, A., Tingley, M. P., & Huybers, P. (2016). The changing shape of Northern Hemisphere summer temperature distributions. Journal of Geophysical Research, 121, 8849–8868.
Mohd Din, M. F., Lee, Y. Y., Ponraj, M., Ossen, D. R., Iawo, K., & Chelliapan, S. (2014). Thermal comfort of various building layouts with a proposed discomfort index range for tropical climate. International Journal of Thermal Biology., 41, 6–15.
Mora, C., Counsell, C. W., Bielecki, C. R., & Louis, L. V. (2017a). Twenty-seven ways a heat wave can kill you: deadly heat in the era of climate change. Circulation: Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes, 10(11), e004233.
Mora, C., Dousset, B., Caldwell, I. R., Powell, F. E., Geronimo, R. C., Bielecki, C. R., Counsell, C. W., Dietrich, B. S., Johnston, E. T., Louis, L. V., & Lucas, M. P. (2017b). Global risk of deadly heat. Nature Climate Change., 7(7), 501–506.
Moustris, K. P., Proias, G. T., Larissi, I. K., Nastos, P. T., & Paliatsos, A. G. (2012). Bioclimatic and air quality conditions in the greater Athens area, Greece, during the warm period of the year: trends, variability and persistence. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin., 21, 2368–2374.
Nikolova, V., & Zlateva, P. (2018). Geoinformation approach for complex analysis of multiple natural hazard. The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, Volume XLII-3/W4, 2018 GeoInformation For Disaster Management (Gi4DM), 18–21 March 2018, Istanbul, Turkey
Nikolova, V., & Zlateva, P. (2019). Complex geoinformation analysis of multiple natural hazards using fuzzy logic. In O. Altan, M. Chandra, F. Sunar, & T. Tanzi (Eds.), Intelligent Systems for Crisis Management, Gi4DM 2018. Lecture Notes in Geoinformation and Cartography. Cham: Springer.
Parak, F., Roshani, A., & Jamali, J. B. (2015). Trends and anomalies in daily climate extremes over Iran during 1961–2010. Journal of Environmental and Agricultural Sciences, 2(11), 1–17.
Rahimi, J., Ebrahimpour, M., & Khalili, A. (2013). Spatial changes of extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology., 112, 409–418.
Roshan, G., & Nastos, P. T. (2018). Assessment of extreme heat stress probabilities in Iran’s urban settlements, using first order Markov chain model. Sustainable Cities and Society, 36, 302–310.
Roshan, G. R., Yousefi, R., & Fitchett, J. (2016). Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability. International Journal of Biometeorology., 60, 33–52.
Roshan, G. R., Yousefi, R., Kovács, A., & Matzarakis, A. (2018a). A comprehensive analysis of physiologically equivalent temperature changes of Iranian selected stations for the last half century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology., 131, 19–41.
Roshan, G., Ghanghermeh, A., & Grab, S. W. (2018b). Testing a new application for TOPSIS: monitoring drought and wet periods in Iran. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131, 557–571.
Roshan, G., Saleh Almomenin, H., Hirashima, S., & Attia, S. (2019). Estimate of outdoor thermal comfort zones for different climatic regions of Iran. Urban Climate, 27, 8–23.
Roshan, G., Grab, S.W. & Najafi, M.S. (2020). The role of physical geographic parameters affecting past (1980–2010) and future (2020–2049) thermal stress in Iran. Nat Hazards 102, 365–399.
Salata, F., Golasi, I., Vollaro, R. L., & Vollaro, A. L. (2016). Outdoor thermal comfort in the Mediterranean area. A transversal study in Rome, Italy. Building and Environment, 96, 46e61.
Shannon, C. E. (1948) A mathematical theory of communication. Bell Labs Technical Journal, 27, 379–423.
Siple, P. A., & Passel, C. F. (1945). Measurements of dry atmospheric cooling in subfreezing temperatures. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, 89, 177–199.
Soori, S., & Baharvand, S. (2016). Landslide hazard zonation using fuzzy logic and density area model (case study: Kakasheraf Basin, Southwest Khorramabad). Journal of Engineering Geology., 9(4), 3093–3112.
Steadman, R. G. (1984). A universal expression of apparent temperature. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 23, 1674–1687.
Stott, P. A., Stone, D. A., & Allen, M. R. (2004). Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature., 432, 610–614.
Thom, E. C. (1959). The discomfort index. Weatherwise., 12, 57–60.
Tonouchi, M., Murayama, K., & Ono, M. (2006). WBGT forecast for prevention of heat stroke in Japan. Sixth Symposium on the Urban Environment. American Meteorological Society. Section PJ1.1
Turkes, M., Turp, M. T., An, N., Ozturk, T., & Kurnaz, M. L. (2020). Impacts of climate change on precipitation climatology and variability in Turkey. In N. Harmancioglu & D. Altinbilek (Eds.), Water Resources of Turkey. World Water Resources (Vol. 2). Cham: Springer.
Tzenkova, A. S., Kandjov, I. M., & Ivancheva, J. N. (2003). Some biometeorological aspects of urban climate in Sofia. In Proceedings of Fifth International Conference on Urban Climate, Lodz, Poland, Vol. 2 (pp. 103–106).
Vogel, M. M., Zscheischler, J., Wartenburger, R., Dee, D., & Seneviratne, S. I. (2019). Concurrent 2018 hot extremes across Northern Hemisphere due to human-induced climate change. Earth’s Future., 7, 692–703.
World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). (2019). July matched, and maybe broke, the record for the hottest month since analysis began, Published 1 August 2019. Retrieved from https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/july-matched-and-maybe-broke-record-hottest-month-analysis-began.
Yahia, M. W., & Johansson, E. (2013). Evaluating the behaviour of different thermal indices by investigating various outdoor urban environments in the hot dry city of Damascus, Syria. International Journal of Biometeorology., 57, 615–630.
Yu, Z., & Li, X. (2015). Recent trends in daily temperature extremes over northeastern China (1960-2011). Quaternary International., 380-381, 35–35.
Zare, S., Shirvan, H. E., Hemmatjo, R., Nadri, F., Jahani, Y., Jamshidzadeh, K., Paydar, P. (2019). A comparison of the correlation between heat stress indices (UTCI, WBGT, WBDT, TSI) and physiological parameters of workers in Iran. Weather and Climate Extremes 26, 100213. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2019.100213
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Publisher’s note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Roshan, G., Faghani, M. & Fitchett, J.M. Developing a thermal stress map of Iran through modeling a combination of bioclimatic indices. Environ Monit Assess 192, 549 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08503-y
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08503-y