Abstract
For two hydrological models, the ECOMAG and SWAP, the hypothesis is checked that a model which has successfully passed the test based on observational data is more efficient for assessing future hydrological consequences of climate change than the models which did not pass the test. The efficiency is evaluated using two criteria: the robustness of a model and the uncertainty of simulation results. Three versions of each model constructed for the basins of the Lena and Mackenzie rivers are examined: the model whose parameters are set a priori (without calibration), the model which was calibrated against runoff hydrographs at the outlet, and the model which was calibrated against runoff hydrographs at several gaging stations of the river network. The estimates of possible changes in the river runoff by the end of the 21st century are obtained using data of global climate models. It is shown that the hydrological model which successfully passed the proposed testing procedure is more effective for assessing climate change impact on the river runoff.
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Funding
The research was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (the simulations based on the SWAP model were supported by the grant 16-17-10039 and those based on the ECOMAG model were supported by the grant 19-17-00215) and by the theme of the State Assignment of Water Problems Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences 0147-2018-0003 (the creation of databases on the underlying surface characteristics).
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Russian Text ©The Author(s), 2020, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2020, No. 5, pp. 77-85.
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Gel’fan, A.N., Kalugin, A.S., Krylenko, I.N. et al. Testing a Hydrological Model to Evaluate Climate Change Impact on River Runoff. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 45, 353–359 (2020). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373920050064
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373920050064