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Modelling climate sensitivity of agriculture in Trans- and Upper Gangetic Plains of India

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Abstract

The present study assesses the response of farm income to climatic variations and projects the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Trans- and Upper Gangetic Plains Region of India. Panel data estimation of crop response function has been carried out by pooling long time series (1980–2009) and cross-section data of 84 districts. Climate change impact projections have been made with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 climate scenario for the time slice 2010–2039 and two sub periods, viz. 2020–2029 and 2030–2039. The negative effect of rise in temperature on gross margin per hectare ranges from 10.5% in monsoon season (June to September) to 6.5% in winter season (October to February). The marginal effect of precipitation change is positive albeit of small magnitude, 0.04% and 0.03% , in the monsoon and winter season, respectively. Loss in annual gross margin per hectare in Trans- and Upper Gangetic Plains is projected to be 14.47% for the time slice 2010–2039. The losses are likely to escalate in 2030–2039 (17.06%) over 2020–2029 (15.86%). The northern part of the region will be affected adversely during the monsoon season, with the exception of a few districts which are likely to gain marginally due to winter warming.

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Acknowledgements

This work has been carried out as part of the mega project “National Initiative on Climate Resilient Agriculture (NICRA)” funded by Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR). The support of the NICRA staff with data collection is duly acknowledged. Special thanks to Dr. S. Naresh Kumar, Principal Scientist (Environmental Sciences), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, for sharing with us the downscaled Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP 4.5) climate scenarios for the time slice 2010–2039.

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  1. Bishwa Bhaskar Choudhary

    Present address: Scientist (Agricultural Economics) ICAR-Indian Grassland and Fodder Research Institute, Jhansi, Uttar Pradesh, 284003, India

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  1. DESM Division, ICAR-National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal, 132001, India

    Bishwa Bhaskar Choudhary & Smita Sirohi

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  1. Bishwa Bhaskar Choudhary
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  2. Smita Sirohi
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Correspondence to Bishwa Bhaskar Choudhary.

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Choudhary, B.B., Sirohi, S. Modelling climate sensitivity of agriculture in Trans- and Upper Gangetic Plains of India. Theor Appl Climatol 142, 381–391 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03297-y

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