Skip to main content

Advertisement

Log in

Interdecadal change in the North Atlantic storm track during boreal summer around the mid-2000s: role of the atmospheric internal processes

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The first EOF mode (EOF1) of summer storm track activity over the North Atlantic is characterized by a dipole structure, with negative storm track anomalies over the south coast of Greenland extending northeast across Iceland to the Norwegian Sea and positive anomalies over coastal western Europe. This study shows that a significant interdecadal change in the North Atlantic storm track during boreal summer occurred around the mid-2000s. After the mid-2000s, the EOF1 occurs more frequently at its positive phase, which is associated with an interdecadal increase in the geopotential height anomalies around Greenland. On the intra-seasonal timescale, the anticyclonic anomalies around Greenland are crucial for the occurrence of positive EOF1 events via triggering eastward propagating Rossby waves. Therefore, the interdecadal increase in the geopotential height anomalies around Greenland tends to facilitate the occurrence of the positive EOF1 event and is therefore a key driver of the interdecadal change in the summer storm track activity over the North Atlantic. Further analysis indicates that the development of anticyclonic anomalies around Greenland is maintained by the self-interaction among the low- and high-frequency transients themselves. Moreover, the anomalous synoptic eddy activities associated with the change in storm tracks can in turn amplify and maintain the Rossby waves triggered by the anticyclonic anomalies around Greenland in the synoptic-scale eddy feedback process.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13
Fig. 14

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Benjamini Y, Hochberg Y (1995) Controlling the false discovery rate: a practical and powerful approach to multiple testing. J R Stat Soc 57:289–300

    Google Scholar 

  • Blackmon ML (1976) A climatological spectral study of the 500 mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere. J Atmos Sci 33:1607–1623

    Google Scholar 

  • Branstator G (1995) Organization of storm track anomalies by recurring low-frequency circulation anomalies. J Atmos Sci 52:207–226

    Google Scholar 

  • Briffa KR, Schrier GVD, Jones PD (2009) Wet and dry summers in Europe since 1750: evidence of increasing drought. Int J Climatol 29:1894–1905

    Google Scholar 

  • Brown SJ (2017) The drivers of variability in UK extreme rainfall. Int J Climatol 38:119–130

    Google Scholar 

  • Cai M, Den Dool HMV (1994) Dynamical decomposition of low-frequency tendencies. J Atmos Sci 51:2086–2100

    Google Scholar 

  • Chang EKM, Fu Y (2000) Interdecadal variations in Northern Hemisphere winter storm track intensity. J Clim 15:642–658

    Google Scholar 

  • Chang EKM, Yu DB (1999) Characteristics of wave packets in the upper troposphere. Part I: Northern Hemisphere winter. J Atmos Sci 42:1708–1728

    Google Scholar 

  • Chang EKM, Lee S, Swanson KL (2002) Storm track dynamics. J Clim 15:2163–2183

    Google Scholar 

  • Chen S, Chen W, Yu B (2014) Asymmetric influence of boreal spring Arctic Oscillation on subsequent ENSO. J Geophys Res Atmos 119:11135–11150. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD021831

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597

    Google Scholar 

  • Ding Q et al (2017) Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice. Nat Clim Change 7:289–295. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3241

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dong B, Sutton RT, Woollings T, Hodges K (2013) Variability of the North Atlantic summer storm track: mechanisms and impacts on European climate. Environ Res Lett 8:4037

    Google Scholar 

  • Feldstein SB (2002) Fundamental mechanisms of the growth and decay of the PNA teleconnection pattern. Q J R Meteorol Soc 128:775–796

    Google Scholar 

  • Feldstein SB (2003) The dynamics of NAO teleconnection pattern growth and decay. Q J R Meteorol Soc 129:901–924. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.76

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Folland CK, Knight J, Linderholm HW, Fereday D, Ineson S, Hurrell JW (2009) The summer North Atlantic Oscillation: past, present, and future. J Clim 22:1082–1103. https://doi.org/10.1175/2008jcli2459.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Francis JA, Vavrus SJ (2012) Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. Geophys Res Lett 39:L06801. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl051000

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gong T, Feldstein S, Lee S (2017) The role of downward infrared radiation in the recent Arctic winter warming trend. J Clim 30:4937–4949

    Google Scholar 

  • Gudmundsson L, Seneviratne SI (2015) European drought trends. Proc IAHS 369:75–79

    Google Scholar 

  • Hanna E, Jones JM, Cappelen J, Mernild SH, Wood L, Steffen K, Huybrechts P (2013) The influence of North Atlantic atmospheric and oceanic forcing effects on 1900–2010 Greenland summer climate and ice melt/runoff. Int J Climatol 33:862–880. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3475

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanna E et al (2014) Atmospheric and oceanic climate forcing of the exceptional Greenland ice sheet surface melt in summer 2012. Int J Climatol 34:1022–1037. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3743

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanna E, Cropper TE, Hall RJ, Cappelen J (2016) Greenland Blocking Index 1851–2015: a regional climate change signal. Int J Climatol 36:4847–4861. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4673

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hanna E, Hall R, Overland JE (2017) Can Arctic warming influence UK extreme weather. Weather 72:346–352

    Google Scholar 

  • Hawcroft MK, Shaffrey LC, Hodges KI, Dacre HF (2012) How much Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones? Geophys Res Lett 39:24809

    Google Scholar 

  • Hendon HH, Hartmann DL (1985) Variability in a nonlinear model of the atmosphere with zonally symmetric forcing. J Atmos Sci 42:2783–2797

    Google Scholar 

  • Hong X, Lu R, Li S (2017) Amplified summer warming in Europe-West Asia and Northeast Asia after the mid-1990s. Environ Res Lett 12:094007

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoskins BJ (1983) The shape, propagation and mean-flow interaction of large-scale weather systems. J Atmos Sci 40:1595–1612

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoskins BJ, Valdes PJ (1990) On the existence of storm-tracks. J Atmos Sci 47:1854–1864

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoskins BJ, James IN, White GH (1983) The shape, propagation and mean-flow interaction of large-scale weather systems. J Atmos Sci 40:1595–1612

    Google Scholar 

  • Inatsu M, Mukougawa H, Xie SP (2003) Atmospheric response to zonal variations in midlatitude SST: Transient and stationary eddies and their feedback. J Clim 16:3314–3329

    Google Scholar 

  • Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–471. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kaspi Y, Schneider T (2013) The role of stationary eddies in shaping midlatitude storm tracks. J Atmos Sci 70:2596–2613. https://doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-12-082.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lee S (1995) Localized storm tracks in the absence of local instability. J Atmos Sci 52:977–989

    Google Scholar 

  • Lee SS et al (2012) Interdecadal changes in the storm track activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic. Clim Dyn 39:313–327

    Google Scholar 

  • Lepage Y (1971) A combination of Wilcoxon’s and Ansari–Bradley’s statistics. Biometrika 58:213–217

    Google Scholar 

  • Löptien U, Ruprecht E (2010) Effect of synoptic systems on the variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 133:2894–2904

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo D, Diao Y, Feldstein SB (2011) The variability of the Atlantic Storm Track and the North Atlantic Oscillation: A Link between intraseasonal and interannual variability. J Atmos Sci 68:577–601

    Google Scholar 

  • Matsumura S, Zhang X, Yamazaki K (2014) Summer Arctic atmospheric circulation response to spring Eurasian snow cover and its possible linkage to accelerated sea ice decrease. J Clim 27:6551–6558. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00549.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982a) The latitude dependence of the variance of zonally averaged quantities. Mon Weather Rev 110:1434–1450

    Google Scholar 

  • North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982b) Sampling errors in the estimation of Empirical Orthogonal Functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706

    Google Scholar 

  • Overland JE, Francis JA, Hanna E, Wang M (2012) The recent shift in early summer Arctic atmospheric circulation. Geophys Res Lett 39:19804

    Google Scholar 

  • Park DSR, Lee S, Feldstein SB (2015) Attribution of the recent winter sea ice decline over the Atlantic Sector of the Arctic Ocean. J Clim 28:4027–4033

    Google Scholar 

  • Peterson TC, Hoerling MP, Stott PA, Herring SC (2013) Explaining extreme events of 2012 from a climate perspective. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 94:S1–S74

    Google Scholar 

  • Pfahl S, Wernli H (2012) Quantifying the relevance of cyclones for precipitation extremes. J Clim 25:6770–6780

    Google Scholar 

  • Schonher T, Nicholson SE (1989) The relationship between rainfall and ENSO events. J Clim 2:1258–1269. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Screen JA (2013) Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation. Environ Res Lett 8:4015

    Google Scholar 

  • Shi N, Wang Y, Wang X, Tian P (2019) Interdecadal variations in the frequency of persistent hot events in boreal summer over midlatitude Eurasia. J Clim 32:5161–5177

    Google Scholar 

  • Sutton RT, Dong B (1990s) Atlantic Ocean influence on a shift in European climate in the 1990s. Nat Geosci 5:788–792

    Google Scholar 

  • Takaya K, Nakamura H (2001) A Formulation of a phase-independent wave-activity flux for stationary and migratory quasigeostrophic eddies on a zonally varying basic flow. J Atmos Sci 58:608–627

    Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE (1986) An assessment of the impact of transient eddies on the zonal flow during a blocking episode using localized Eliassen-Palm flux diagnostics. J Atmos Sci 43:2070–2087

    Google Scholar 

  • Vicenteserrano SM et al (2014) Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe. Environ Res Lett 9:044001

    Google Scholar 

  • Wallace JM, Lim GH, Blackmon ML (1988) Relationship between cyclone tracks, anticyclone tracks and baroclinic waveguides. J Atmos Sci 45:439–462

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang L, Xu P, Chen W, Liu Y (2017) Interdecadal variations of the Silk Road pattern. J Clim 30:9915–9932. https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0340.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Nath D, Chen W, Wang L (2019) Recent strengthening of Greenland blocking drives summertime surface warming over northern Canada and eastern Siberia. J Clim 32:3263–3278

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilks DS (2016) “The stippling shows statistically significant grid points”: how research results are routinely overstated and overinterpreted, and what to do about it. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 97:2263–2273. https://doi.org/10.1175/bams-d-15-00267.1

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

We thank two anonymous reviewers for their constructive suggestions, which helped to improve the paper. This study was supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 4191101005 and 41721004), the Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences (QYZDY-SSW-DQC024) and the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Wen Chen.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no potential conflict of interest.

Additional information

Publisher's Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Wang, S., Chen, W., Chen, S. et al. Interdecadal change in the North Atlantic storm track during boreal summer around the mid-2000s: role of the atmospheric internal processes. Clim Dyn 55, 1929–1944 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05360-w

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05360-w

Keywords

Navigation