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Heat, cold, and floods: exploring farmers’ motivations to adapt to extreme weather events in the Terai region of Nepal

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Abstract

Smallholder farmers in Nepal are vulnerable to climate change-related extreme weather events. Adaptation in the agriculture sector is needed to mitigate social, economic, and ecological impacts from increasing levels of hazard activity. To examine this issue, a household survey of 350 farmers in the Terai region of Nepal was carried out to assess farmers’ risk perceptions towards three common extreme weather events (floods, cold spells, and heat waves) and to explore their intended responses to cope with future impacts. The intended common adaptation strategies include changes in farm management, seeking off-farm employment, emergency management planning, purchasing crop insurance, and the raising of awareness. Threat appraisal is the strongest predictor of the number of intended adaptation strategies adopted in response to slow-onset hazards (heat waves and cold spells), while coping appraisal is the major predictor of the number of intended adaptation strategies adopted to mitigate flood risk, a rapid onset hazard. Crop insurance and off-farm employment are farmers’ most preferred flood adaptation strategies, while crop insurance is the most preferred adaptation strategy for heat waves and cold spells. Other variables such as the number of past implemented strategies, experience with extreme events, community organisation membership, and access to credit and extension services were also significantly associated with farmers’ choices for adaptation strategies in response to the three extreme events. This information can be used to tailor community-centred communication about potential threats from different extreme weather events and government technical and financial support, which will be crucial for farmers to adapt effectively to climate change-related weather extremes.

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Notes

  1. When RRR > 1, the risk of the outcome falling in the comparison group relative to the risk of falling in the referent group increases as the variable increases. While RRR < 1, the outcome variables will be more likely to be in the referent group.

  2. US $ = NPR 116.52 (NRB, 25th Sep, 2018).

  3. The unconditional mean and variance of the three outcome variables (floods: variance = 2.37, mean = 3.50; heat wave: variance = 3.13, mean = 3.21; and cold spell: variance = 3.68, mean = 3.48) were found to be not extremely different indicating that there was no over-dispersion.

  4. Variance of inflator factor (VIF) was found to be less than 10 (flood: 1.52, heat wave: 1.51, and cold spell: 1.68).

  5. After running estate GOF command after Poisson regressions, it was concluded that the models fit reasonably well because the Chi-squared goodness-of-fit test is not statistically significant (P value) for all three models (flood: 1.00, heat wave: 1.00, and cold spell: 1.00).

  6. The Hausman test failed to reject the null hypothesis of independence of all three models. This indicates that the multinomial logit model is suitable to model the intended adaptation measures in response to the three EWEs (in the flood model, χ2 ranged from − 128.85 to 81.58 with probability values between 0.0009 and 1.0000; in the heat wave model, χ2 ranged from − 164. 43 to 4.3 with probability values of 1.00; and in the cold spell model, χ2 ranged from − 44.61 to 25.80 with probability values of 1.00).

  7. For flood model, McFadden R2 = 0.29, LR chi2 (85) = 288.18, and Prob > Chi2 = 0.0001; for heat wave model, McFadden R2 = 0.36, LR chi2(85) = 397.22, and Prob > Chi2 = 0.0001; for cold spell model, McFadden R2 = 0.40, LR chi2(85) = 441.38, and Prob > Chi2 = 0.0001.

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Acknowledgements

This research was conducted as part of a PhD project supported by Charles Darwin University (Darwin, Australia) and funded by an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship. We would like to thank all farmers from Gulariya and Rapti Sonari for participating in our study. We would also like to acknowledge the support from MOAD and officials of the District Agricultural Office and DDRC from Banke and Bardiya who provided valuable information and insights. K. Zander is supported by the Humboldt Foundation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Northern Institute, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Australia

    Nanda Kaji Budhathoki, Jonatan A. Lassa & Kerstin K. Zander

  2. School of Psychological and Clinical Sciences, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Australia

    Douglas Paton

  3. Research and Reporting Unit, The City of Calgary, Alberta, Canada

    Gopal Datt Bhatta

  4. German Development Institute, Bonn, Germany

    Kerstin K. Zander

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  1. Nanda Kaji Budhathoki
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Correspondence to Nanda Kaji Budhathoki.

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Budhathoki, N.K., Paton, D., Lassa, J.A. et al. Heat, cold, and floods: exploring farmers’ motivations to adapt to extreme weather events in the Terai region of Nepal. Nat Hazards 103, 3213–3237 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-020-04127-0

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