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Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment

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Abstract

Sea-level rise (SLR) can amplify the episodic erosion from storms and drive chronic erosion on sandy shorelines, threatening many coastal communities. One of the major uncertainties in SLR projections is the potential rapid disintegration of large fractions of the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS). Quantifying this uncertainty is essential to support sound risk management of coastal areas, although it is neglected in many erosion impact assessments. Here, we use the island of Sint Maarten as a case study to evaluate the impact of AIS uncertainty for future coastal recession. We estimate SLR-induced coastal recession using a probabilistic framework and compare and contrast three cases of AIS dynamics within the range of plausible futures. Results indicate that projections of coastal recession are sensitive to local morphological factors and assumptions made on how AIS dynamics are incorporated into SLR projections and that underestimating the potential rapid mass loss from the AIS can lead to ill-informed coastal adaptation decisions.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to thank Arjen Luijendijk for providing the satellite-derived shoreline positions of the Sint Maarten beaches. We further would like to acknowledge Ali Dastgheib for fruitful discussions during the research. RR is supported by the AXA Research fund and the Deltares Strategic Research Programme Coastal and Offshore Engineering.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft, The Netherlands

    Jasper Verschuur, Caroline A. Katsman, Sierd de Vries & Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof

  2. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Utrechtseweg 297, 3731 GA, De Bilt, The Netherlands

    Jasper Verschuur, Dewi Le Bars & Sybren S. Drijfhout

  3. Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC, Utrecht, The Netherlands

    Sybren S. Drijfhout

  4. Department of Water Engineering, UNESCO-IHE, 3015 DA, Delft, The Netherlands

    Roshanka Ranasinghe

  5. Water Engineering and Management, University of Twente, 7500 AE, Enschede, The Netherlands

    Roshanka Ranasinghe

  6. Harbour, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Deltares, 2600 MH, Delft, The Netherlands

    Roshanka Ranasinghe

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  1. Jasper Verschuur
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  2. Dewi Le Bars
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  7. Stefan G. J. Aarninkhof
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Correspondence to Jasper Verschuur.

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Verschuur, J., Le Bars, D., Katsman, C.A. et al. Implications of ambiguity in Antarctic ice sheet dynamics for future coastal erosion estimates: a probabilistic assessment. Climatic Change 162, 859–876 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02769-4

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