Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Assessing variations in climate extremes over Euphrates Basin, Turkey

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The variation in climate extremes at different spatial and temporal scales can be conceived as an important indicator of climate change. The focus of this study is to reveal linear trends and observe space-time (ST) variation in extreme climate indices over the Euphrates Basin in Turkey. Extreme climate indices are calculated using daily maximum, minimum, and mean temperatures, including observations of daily precipitation measured from 41 meteorological stations from 1970 to 2017. Three precipitation indices, consecutive dry days (CDD), consecutive wet days (CWD), and precipitation intensity (SDII), together with three temperature indices, number of summer days (SU), number of frost days (FD), and growing season length (GSL), are analysed. Linear trends in these extreme indices are examined using the Mann-Kendall test. The ST distribution and variation in climate indices are examined through prediction maps for this study period. Ordinary kriging (OK), which has proven to be accurate and reliable in many studies, is used to obtain prediction maps on ST framework. Results indicated that there is an evident trend in the temperature-related indices. Regarding SU and GSL, about 66% and 34% of all stations, respectively, show a significant increasing trend. The downward trend (negative Z statistic) for the FD is observed at approximately 83% of all meteorological stations, of which 35% show a significant trend. The ST variation in temperature-related extremes is evident from prediction maps; the trend is not as dominant for precipitation-related indices. In terms of ST prediction maps, the most prominent variation is observed in the south and northeast parts of the basin in CDD and CWD prediction maps from 2013 to 2017.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Acar Z, Gönençgil B, Gümüşoğlu NK (2018) Long-term changes in hot and cold extremes in Turkey. J Geogr 37:57–67

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Adeyeri OE, Lawin AE, Laux P, Ishola KA, Ige SO (2019) Analysis of climate extreme indices over the Komadugu-Yobe basin, Lake Chad region: past and future occurrences. Weather Clim Extremes 23:100194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bostan PA (2013) Analysis and modelling of spatially and temporally varying meteorological parameter: precipitation over Turkey. A thesis submitted to the Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences of Middle East Technical University

  • Cannarozzo M, Noto LV, Viola F (2006) Spatial distribution of rainfall trends in Sicily (1921-2000). Phys Chem Earth 31:1201–1211

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chen H, Guo S, Xu C, Singh VP (2007) Historical temporal trends of hydro-climatic variables and runoff response to climate variability and their relevance in water resource management in the Hanjiang basin. J Hydrol 344:171–184

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Colombo T, Pelino V, Vergari S, Cristofanelli P, Bonasoni P (2007) Study of temperature and precipitation variations in Italy based on surface instrumental observations. Glob Planet Chang 57:308–318

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Croitoru AE, Chiotoroiu BC, Todorova VI, Toricã V (2013) Changes in precipitation extremes on the Black Sea Western coast. Glob Planet Chang 102:10–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cui L, Wang L, Lai Z, Tian Q, Liu W, Li J (2017) Innovative trend analysis of annual and seasonal air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin, China during 1960-2015. J Atmos Sol Terr Phys 164:48–59

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • El-Zein A, Tonmoy FN (2015) Assessment of vulnerability to climate change using a multi-criteria outranking approach with application to heat stress in Sydney. Ecol Indic 48:207–217

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Erlat E, Türkeş M (2013) Observed changes and trends in numbers of summer and tropical days, and the 2010 hot summer in Turkey. Int J Climatol 33(8):1898–1908

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gao L, Huang J, Chen X, Chen Y, Liu M (2018) Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation. Atmos Res 205:60–69

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Guo E, Zhang J, Wang Y, Quan L, Zhang R, Zhang F, Zhou M (2019) Spatiotemporal variations of extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1960-2014. Ecol Indic 96:669–683

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haktanır K, Karaca A, Omar SM (2004) The prospects of the impact of desertification on Turkey, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. In: Marquina A (ed) Environmental challenges in the Mediterranean 2000–2050, NATO science series (series IV: earth and environmental sciences), vol 37. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 139–154

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Halimatou TA, Kalifa T, Kyei-Baffour N (2017) Assessment of changing trends of daily precipitation and temperature extremes in Bamako and Ségou in Mali from 1961-2014. Weather Clim Extremes 18:8–16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Heuvelink GBM, Griffith DA (2010) Space-time geostatistics for geography: a case study of radiation monitoring across parts of Germany. Geogr Anal 42:161–179

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2018) Summary for policymakers. In: Masson-Delmotte V et al (eds) global warming of 1.5°C: an IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva

    Google Scholar 

  • Kendall MG (1970) Rank Correlation Methods, 4th Ed., Griffin, London

  • Li W, Duan L, Luo Y, Liu T, Scharaw B (2018) Spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation regimes in the Eastern Inland River Basin of Inner Mongolian Plateau, China. Water 10(1):35 1-16

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lόpez-Moreno JI, Vicente-Serrano SM, Angulo-Martínez M, Beguería S, Kenawy A (2010) Trends in daily precipitation on the northeastern Iberian Peninsula, 1955-2006. Int J Climatol 30:1026–1041

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13. No. 3:245–259

    Google Scholar 

  • Martinez CJ, Maleski JJ, Miller MF (2012) Trends in precipitation and temperature in Florida, USA. J Hydrol 452-453:259–281

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Peterson TC, Folland C, Gruza G, Hogg W, Mokssit A, Plummer N (2001) Report on the Activities of the Working Group on Climate Change Detection and Related Rapporteurs 1998-2001

  • Roy SS (2019) Spatial patterns of trends in seasonal extreme temperatures in India during 1980-2010. Weather Clim Extremes 24:100203

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Salman SA, Shahid S, Ismail T, Chung E-S, Al-Abadi AM (2017) Long-term trends in daily temperature extremes in Iraq. Atmos Res 198:97–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sensoy S, Turkoglu N, Akcakaya A, Ekici M, Demircan M, Ulupınar Y, Atay H, Tüvan A, Demirbaş H (2013) Trends in Turkey climate indices from 1960 to 2010. In 6th atmospheric science symposium (ITU), Istanbul

    Google Scholar 

  • Shi J, Cui L, Wen K, Tian Z, Wei P, Zhang B (2018) Trends in the consecutive days of temperature and precipitation extremes in China during 1961-2015. Environ Res 161:381–391

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Soltani M, Laux P, Kunstmann H, Stan K, Sohrabi MM, Molanejad M, Sabziparvar AA, Ranjbar SaadatAbadi A, Ranjbar F, Rousta I, Zawar-Reza P, Khoshakhlagh F, Soltanzadeh I, Babu CA, Azizi GH, Martin MV (2016) Assessment of climate variations in temperature and precipitation extreme events over Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 126:775–795

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Song X, Zhang J, Zou X, Zhang C, AghaKouchak A, Kong F (2019) Changes in precipitation extremes in the Beijing metropolitan area during 1960-2017. Atmos Res 222:134–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sonmez I (2013) Quality control tests for western Turkey Mesonet. Meteorol Appl 20:330–337

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Qian C, Ren G, Zhou Y (2016) Urbanization effects on climatic changes in 24 particular timings of the seasonal cycle in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River. Theor Appl Climatol 124:781–791

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tong S, Li X, Zhang J, Bao Y, Bao Y, Na L, Si A (2019) Spatial and temporal variability in extreme temperature and precipitation events in ınner Mongolia (China) during 1960-2017. Sci Total Environ 649:75–89

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tongal H (2019) Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation and extreme indices in the Antalya Basin, Turkey. Theor Appl Climatol 138:1735–1754

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tošić I, Zorn M, Ortar J, Unkašević M, Gavrilov MB, Marković SB (2016) Annual and seasonal variability of precipitation and temperatures in Slovenia from 1961 to 2011. Atmos Res 168:220–233

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Türkeş M (1999) Vulnerability of Turkey to desertification with respect to precipitation and aridity conditions. Tr J of Eng Environ Sci 23(5):363–380

    Google Scholar 

  • Türkeş M, Erlat E (2003) Precipitation changes and variability in Turkey linked to the North Atlantic oscillation during the period 1930-2000. Int J Climatol 23:1771–1796

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Türkeş M, Sümer UM, Demir İ (2002) Re-evaluation of trends and changes in mean, maximum and minimum temperatures of Turkey for the period 1929-1999. Int J Climatol 22:947–977

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Zhang M, Wang B, Sun M, Li X (2013) Recent changes in daily extremes of temperature and precipitation over the western Tibetan Plateau, 1973-2011. Quat Int 313-314:110–117

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • You Q, Kang S, Pepin N, Yan Y (2008) Relationship between trends in temperature extremes and elevation in the eastern and central Tibetan Plateau, 1961-2005. Geophys Res Lett 35(L04704):1–7

    Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrol Process 16:1807–1829

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yürekli K (2015) Impact of climate variability on precipitation in the Upper Euphrates-Tigris Rivers Basin of Southeast Turkey. Atmos Res 154:25–38

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Yang F (2004) RClimDex (1.0) user manual. Climate Research Branch, Environment Canada, Ontario, Canada

  • Zhou Y, Ren G (2011) Change in extreme temperature event frequency over mainland China, 1961-2008. Clim Res 50:125–139

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

I am thankful to the editor Prof. Dr. Hartmut Graßl for his great kindness in giving me a chance to improve the quality of this manuscript. Likewise, I want to thank an anonymous reviewer for providing me professional comments and suggestions which were further useful in enhancing the manuscript content. I would like to thank Prof. Dr. İsmail Yücel from Middle East Technical University for his helpful comments. Finally, I thank the General Directorate of Meteorology for providing daily observation data.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Landscape Architecture Department, Faculty of Architecture and Design, Van Yuzuncu Yil University, 65080, Campus, Van, Turkey

    Pınar Bostan

  2. Visiting Researcher at ITC, Twente University, Enschede, Netherlands

    Pınar Bostan

Authors
  1. Pınar Bostan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Pınar Bostan.

Additional information

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Bostan, P. Assessing variations in climate extremes over Euphrates Basin, Turkey. Theor Appl Climatol 141, 1461–1473 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03238-9

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03238-9

Keywords

Search

Navigation